Team by team wTPRR takeaways

This'll be a fun one

I haven’t gotten around to doing these fun Wednesday additional writeups yet this year, but we’ve reached the point where we have a good sample and I’m itching to dig into some advanced receiving numbers.

Those of you who were around last year probably remember I spent a bunch of time advocating for TPRR as a stat, starting with this Twitter thread and then this post in September where I basically just talked through how it is different and I think probably better than YPRR.

TPRR stands for targets per route run, while YPRR is yards, and the only real difference between who might do better in one of the stats would be their yards per target (YPT) efficiency. That can be helpful, but it’s not a particularly predictive stat, and one of the things about YPT that does help us out is that it catches some of the depth of throws — underneath guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster who earn targets at low aDOTs typically can’t post the type of YPTs a deep threat could.

[As an aside, I’ve seen suggestions YPT and aDOT don’t actually correlate as strongly as you’d think, and just looking at the r-squared of all players with 50 targets last year, 35% of the variance in YPT can be explained solely by aDOT, which actually seems like a high number given we’re talking an efficiency metric. But even to the extent there’s truth to this idea, it’s probably because aDOT is an average, and strong YPTs are still typically driven by air yards. That’s a complicated way of saying that if you look at the current YPT leaderboard for anyone with a reasonable number of targets, all those players have high aDOTs until you get to guys like Deebo Samuel, K.J. Osborn, and Cooper Kupp, who all have lower average depths of target, but have all scored long touchdowns on downfield shots so far in their small 2021 samples, so their impressive YPTs are driven more by efficiency on those few high air yards plays they’ve gotten. But I digress.]

So what we have is TPRR maybe being better than YPRR because it’s stickier and more precisely evaluates the skill a player has in earning targets, but YPRR still having value because of how it captures some of the value of air yards, and then also that the efficiency component probably doesn’t hurt anything because good players are good.

So how do we reconcile the two stats? We weight TPRR to directly include air yards on a route run basis, which will capture some of that aDOT value. In that way, we’re not treating every target at every depth the same. And so by late October of last year I’d created this weighted TPRR metric and written about it, which I can’t decide if it should be WTPRR or wTPRR but I kinda like the latter as a nod to the weighted baseball metrics out there like wOBA and wRC.

For anyone who wants to look at this themselves, the way I built this stat was as a shoutout to Josh Hermsmeyer’s WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) metric. WOPR is a fantastic stat, and the pieces it weights are target share and air yards share, which are both relative to team volume. That gives us super useful information, but does require a touch more context about the team situation — has their pass volume been low? Is it likely to stay low? — whereas wTPRR doesn’t include anything about team volume and so the slight difference is it’s a more direct measure of the individual player’s ability to earn targets and air yards relative to the number of routes they run. I suppose there is still some context there — it’s probably harder to post a strong wTPRR when you’re playing alongside Davante Adams rather than having no target competition — but the point stands.

The results of the two stats are in many cases similar, but wTPRR is going to highlight part-time players more and ideally help us identify breakouts — guys like Rondale Moore who we know have limited roles but the potential to gain work. The wTPRR stat scales and weights air yards similar to how WOPR weights air yards share and target share, which is to say that targets are about two times more important than air yards. I did this all very roughly, but the formula I came up with for wTPRR is this:

((TPRR x 20) + AYPRR) / 12

That formula weights TPRR and AYPRR (air yards per route run) where TPRR gets more importance, and the scales it back toward the familiar WOPR scale that basically works from 0-1. What I mean by that scale is a good wTPRR will look a little like a good WOPR, and as it stands Davante Adams leads the league right now with a wTPRR of 1.0, while there are 17 players who have a wTPRR over 0.65, so you’re sort of looking for anything over 0.5 as good and over 0.6 as very good, something like that.

Alright, I’ve talked about the stat enough. We’re going to go team by team and look at the current leaderboards. Two quick notes:

• RotoViz is building a tool that will include many of my favorite Stealing Signals stats on their site, and it will include wTPRR and allow you to do your own research. It sounds like that tool will be ready this week, so that’s something fun to look out for if you’re a subscriber there.

• If you like this post and want more like it, you can subscribe for $8/month to the premium Stealing Signals newsletters. Be aware that it autorenews, but you can subscribe and then go to bengretch.substack.com and into your profile page to shut off the autorenewal, which will give you a month of access for $8 with no additional requirements. Those newsletters highlight all the biggest Signals and Noise from every game, every week of the NFL season, in two emails Monday and Tuesday. There’s a ton of information for each game — the newsletters are long — but at the end of Tuesday’s piece I always break down the biggest Signals and Noise in a review section.

Alright, let’s get into it. The first number after the player name is his wTPRR, while the second (in parenthesis) is his total number of routes through three games. Some of the deviations in total routes relate to the number of pass plays a team has run, while for some teams their top guys don’t run close to full route shares (others do run routes close to 100% of dropbacks). More detail on all that can be found each week in Signals.

The overall top 20 with at least 30 routes run looks like this:

1. Davante Adams - 1.00 (90)

2. Brandin Cooks - 0.91 (96)

3. Cooper Kupp - 0.81 (95)

4. Odell Beckham Jr. - 0.80 (34)

5. Marquise Brown - 0.80 (86)

6. Diontae Johnson - 0.75 (70)

7. D.J. Moore - 0.74 (106)

8. D.K. Metcalf - 0.72 (95)

9. James White - 0.72 (38)

10. Deebo Samuel - 0.72 (94)

11. Mike Williams - 0.69 (111)

12. Tyreek Hill - 0.68 (111)

13. Jonnu Smith - 0.67 (48)

14. Stefon Diggs - 0.66 (125)

15. Courtland Sutton - 0.66 (92)

16. Tee Higgins - 0.66 (57)

17. Cordarrelle Patterson - 0.66 (39)

18. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 0.66 (74)

19. CeeDee Lamb - 0.65 (105)

20. A.J. Brown - 0.65 (84)

Let’s get into the teams with some quick thoughts on what it all means, and also an eye back on 2020 numbers to see who has taken a step forward. I’m going to move down to a 25-route minimum for the below to pull in a few more RBs and those types of guys.

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Arizona

• Christian Kirk - 0.64 (79)

• Rondale Moore - 0.55 (52)

• A.J. Green - 0.49 (99)

• Chase Edmonds - 0.37 (76)

• DeAndre Hopkins - 0.37 (110)

• Maxx Williams - 0.36 (67)

• James Conner - 0.07 (25)

The major issue for Rondale Moore is Christian Kirk is playing very well out of the slot, and A.J. Green has at least shown signs of life outside, so it’s hard to see when the routes could rise. DeAndre Hopkins is likely hampered by his injury. Hopkins was at 0.59 last year, while Kirk was at 0.40.

Chase Edmonds is both running way more routes but also flashing impressive ability to earn way more per-route volume than James Conner. Edmonds has had similarly high TPRRs out of the backfield in the past (0.38 wTPRR in 2020) so it looks very much like a skill he possesses.

Atlanta

• Cordarrelle Patterson - 0.66 (39)

• Calvin Ridley - 0.58 (121)

• Olamide Zaccheaus - 0.35 (63)

• Mike Davis - 0.34 (76)

• Kyle Pitts - 0.34 (104)

• Russell Gage - 0.30 (59)

• Tajae Sharpe - 0.27 (26)

• Hayden Hurst - 0.21 (57)

Cordarrelle Patterson leading the team is hilarious, and since RBs don’t frequently see big air yards, it’s driven by an absurd and likely unsustainable 0.38 TPRR. Mike Davis is also high for a RB, though, and we’re seeing a ton of HVT in Atlanta, as I detailed yesterday.

Calvin Ridley is running a ton of routes, but hasn’t earned volume so far this year at the same rate he did last year (0.72). Kyle Pitts has been underwhelming as well, but the two might go hand in hand where if Pitts can develop, it might make things easier on Ridley as well.

Baltimore

• Marquise Brown - 0.80 (86)

• Sammy Watkins - 0.57 (99)

• Mark Andrews - 0.46 (92)

• Ty'Son Williams - 0.27 (49)

• Devin Duvernay - 0.25 (60)

• Patrick Ricard - 0.22 (27)

Marquise Brown is quietly tearing it up, or perhaps it’s loud in the sense that his drops left a lot of potential production on the field last week. But drops aren’t predictive and there would be a lot more of a positive focus on him had he brought at least one of those passes in. Brown was only at 0.59 last year.

The market turned quickly to adding Rashod Bateman, and Bateman is a fantastic prospect, but I’m not sure the red carpet is actually rolled out for him given how Brown has gotten open and with the contributions they’ve gotten from Sammy Watkins. To be clear, I say I’m not sure because I’m very in on Bateman — a fantastic prospect — and that’s just a small hesitation.

Mark Andrews was at 0.65 last year, so that’s why I keep referencing his routes gains as a positive early note. If his early 0.46 rate this year bumps up, he’s in for a great season.

Buffalo

• Stefon Diggs - 0.66 (125)

• Cole Beasley - 0.52 (118)

• Emmanuel Sanders - 0.47 (123)

• Gabriel Davis - 0.32 (59)

• Dawson Knox - 0.30 (90)

• Zack Moss - 0.30 (27)

• Devin Singletary - 0.20 (81)

• Isaiah McKenzie - 0.19 (26)

Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley are both within 0.01 of their 2020 wTPRRs (0.67 and 0.51), while Emmanuel Sanders is 0.01 lower than where John Brown sat, which is insane consistency of the distribution of volume so far in this offense. It also tells you that the difference in production so far has been driven by efficiency. Diggs is fine.

Dawson Knox is running more routes this year and was at 0.41 last year, so he is a very interesting TE right now.

Devin Singletary has had better TPRRs both of the past two years than Zack Moss did as a rookie, but Moss has seen more targets in his small route sample so far this year, which is fantastic news for his value.

Carolina

• D.J. Moore - 0.74 (106)

• Christian McCaffrey - 0.51 (56)

• Dan Arnold - 0.45 (59)

• Terrace Marshall Jr. - 0.41 (73)

• Chuba Hubbard - 0.40 (35)

• Robby Anderson - 0.32 (99)

• Ian Thomas - 0.23 (34)

Robby Anderson is way down from his 0.60 last year, while D.J. Moore is way up from his 0.59 — he’s kept some of the downfield throws but is getting the opportunity to operate at all depths and earning way more targets in the short and intermediate ranges.

Chuba Hubbard hasn’t been Christian McCaffrey per-route, but he’s earned strong receiving volume so far.

Dan Arnold vacates a pretty solid chunk of volume, and his high slot rate might open up more room for Terrace Marshall, but I think some of that will go to the tight ends as well.

Chicago

• Marquise Goodwin - 0.49 (40)

• Allen Robinson II - 0.48 (96)

• Darnell Mooney - 0.44 (104)

• Damien Williams - 0.42 (32)

• Cole Kmet - 0.25 (79)

• David Montgomery - 0.22 (62)

• Damiere Byrd - 0.10 (61)

It’s been really flat near the top. Darnell Mooney is about where he was last year, while Allen Robinson has dropped considerably from his team-high 0.62 in 2020. Cole Kmet trails as the next highest routes guy in this offense. Kmet was better in wTPRR as a rookie, if not great (0.36).

The gap between Damien Williams and David Montgomery is vaguely interesting. Damiere Byrd is getting more routes than Marquise Goodwin, but earning volume at a way lower rate.

Cincinnati

• Tee Higgins - 0.66 (57)

• Ja'Marr Chase - 0.62 (80)

• Tyler Boyd - 0.55 (78)

• Joe Mixon - 0.24 (49)

• C.J. Uzomah - 0.15 (64)

Things are very concentrated, and Tee Higgins has been very good — better than 2020 in terms of per-route volume (0.58) — but has just been banged up. Ja’Marr Chase has also been very good, especially for a rookie in his first games, and Tyler Boyd’s number is also strong. Basically no one else has mattered in this passing game so far. I’m buying everyone on the idea the volume will rise, but Higgins is perhaps the clearest buy in all of fantasy football.

Cleveland

• Odell Beckham Jr. - 0.80 (34)

• Harrison Bryant - 0.73 (29)

• Anthony Schwartz - 0.57 (42)

• David Njoku - 0.47 (50)

• Austin Hooper - 0.43 (53)

• Jarvis Landry - 0.41 (28)

• Kareem Hunt - 0.36 (45)

• Rashard Higgins - 0.22 (46)

• Donovan Peoples-Jones - 0.14 (79)

• Nick Chubb - 0.11 (40)

Pretty funny to see the sheer number of players the Browns have had run 25 routes already, and contrast that with the Bengals above.

Odell Beckham got elite volume in Week 3. Other than that, it’s pretty balanced. Harrison Bryant is running the fewest routes of the three TEs but is drawing volume better than the other two, which makes it all kind of a wash right now.

Kareem Hunt was at 0.35 last year while Nick Chubb was at 0.21, so maybe Chubb is running a little cold but it’s not irregular to see a gap.

Dallas

• CeeDee Lamb - 0.65 (105)

• Amari Cooper - 0.53 (119)

• Dalton Schultz - 0.44 (74)

• Michael Gallup - 0.42 (37)

• Tony Pollard - 0.42 (28)

• Cedrick Wilson - 0.41 (54)

• Blake Jarwin - 0.28 (71)

• Ezekiel Elliott - 0.13 (92)

CeeDee Lamb looks like a star, and he had a slight edge over Amari Cooper in 2020 but has seen that grow here early in 2021. It was 0.53 to 0.51 last year, so Cooper has moved up a touch too, and it’s more about Lamb taking a step forward.

Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin have ran basically the same number of routes but after being at 0.34 last year, Schultz is earning a lot more volume per-route this year.

Tony Pollard led Ezekiel Elliott only 0.32 to 0.29 last year, so that’s one where the gap looks abnormal and Zeke has fallen quite a bit while Pollard is very high, in part because of the designed stuff on jet motion and the like.

Denver

• Courtland Sutton - 0.66 (92)

• K.J. Hamler - 0.56 (59)

• Noah Fant - 0.48 (74)

• Tim Patrick - 0.42 (81)

• Albert Okwuegbunam - 0.31 (45)

• Javonte Williams - 0.28 (34)

• Melvin Gordon III - 0.18 (58)

I included Hamler because he was off to a great start. Jerry Jeudy, for the record, was at 0.77 but barely misses the cut here with 24 routes.

With both out for a bit, Courtland Sutton should see plenty of volume, while Noah Fant is in great position. Fant was at 0.49 in 2020 so he’s not yet taken a big step forward in terms of per-route volume, but he could.

Detroit

• Jamaal Williams - 0.52 (45)

• D'Andre Swift - 0.47 (78)

• Quintez Cephus - 0.47 (82)

• T.J. Hockenson - 0.44 (114)

• Kalif Raymond - 0.42 (98)

• Trinity Benson - 0.36 (70)

• Darren Fells - 0.33 (26)

• Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0.25 (87)

Kalif Raymond had the big volume in Week 3, but even that wasn’t enough to get him up to where Quintez Cephus has been, so I’m pretty skeptical of Raymond if also now skeptical of Cephus.

T.J. Hockenson, like Fant above, has actually fallen relative to 2020, in large part because he wasn’t very involved in Week 3. Hockenson was at 0.48 last year, and his 114 routes are the big story for him.

And the big story for this team is D’Andre Swift and also Jamaal Williams, and how the RBs are dominating targets. Dan Campbell’s comments Wednesday that Swift may earn more work going forward were fantastic to hear. Swift was at 0.43 in 2020 and is just very good. He’s going to be a monster.

Green Bay

• Davante Adams - 1.00 (90)

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 0.66 (74)

• Randall Cobb - 0.44 (30)

• A.J. Dillon - 0.34 (26)

• Aaron Jones - 0.30 (54)

• Robert Tonyan - 0.22 (65)

• Allen Lazard - 0.21 (65)

• Marcedes Lewis - 0.08 (25)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has had a better role than I anticipated, and the consistent air yards are very nice to see. He was at 0.41 last year, while Allen Lazard was at 0.44, but MVS has clearly separated here in 2021.

Robert Tonyan’s 0.22 is well down from the 0.37 he saw last year. Both backs posting strong numbers in the same range is a positive sign. A.J. Dillon’s receiving has been fine in what has been a very limited role, which is at least a positive note in terms of his contingent value should Aaron Jones miss time.

Houston

• Brandin Cooks - 0.91 (96)

• Anthony Miller - 0.53 (25)

• Pharaoh Brown - 0.43 (37)

• Jordan Akins - 0.34 (61)

• Nico Collins - 0.34 (29)

• David Johnson - 0.27 (38)

• Chris Conley - 0.17 (71)

The big question here is whether Brandin Cooks can keep this up. He led the team in 2020 at 0.56, but Will Fuller was right there at 0.55, and he obviously doesn’t have target competition like that anymore.

Anthony Miller was solidly involved on his 25 routes in Week 3.

Indianapolis

• Michael Pittman Jr. - 0.53 (124)

• Jack Doyle - 0.39 (75)

• Nyheim Hines - 0.38 (63)

• Jonathan Taylor - 0.33 (43)

• Zach Pascal - 0.32 (121)

• Michael Strachan - 0.28 (34)

• Mo Alie-Cox - 0.22 (47)

• Parris Campbell - 0.21 (62)

Michael Pittman is off to a nice start, but on a per-route basis he isn’t blowing the doors off anything. This is a big step up from his 0.37 last year, but the Colts have also lost all three games so far, and have a big need to get Jonathan Taylor going, so the high number of routes might not continue.

Parris Campbell was at 0.59 last year on just 40 routes, most from the slot, and the move to the outside has really hurt him. Zach Pascal is in the slot now, but he is also down from 2020.

Taylor was at 0.29 last year, and Nyheim Hines was at 0.49, so their early numbers this year aren’t particularly surprising.

Jacksonville

• Marvin Jones Jr. - 0.62 (120)

• D.J. Chark Jr. - 0.54 (109)

• Jacob Hollister - 0.53 (28)

• James O'Shaughnessy - 0.48 (42)

• Laviska Shenault Jr. - 0.41 (102)

• James Robinson - 0.37 (70)

• Luke Farrell - 0.24 (31)

• Carlos Hyde - 0.21 (34)

Marvin Jones is seeing plenty of volume, and D.J. Chark is right around his 0.56 mark from last year, while Laviska Shenault doesn’t have the air yards and has fallen a touch from his 0.44 last year instead of taking a step forward. I still have faith things could improve there as Jacksonville is still figuring things out overall.

The various tight ends have been pretty involved, which is maybe a positive sign for Dan Arnold, who will presumably be in the slot role James O’Shaughnessy first occupied and then Jacob Hollister had in Week 3.

James Robinson was at 0.31 last year so he has taken a small step forward. He looks very interesting overall right now.

Kansas City

• Tyreek Hill - 0.68 (111)

• Travis Kelce - 0.59 (106)

• Byron Pringle - 0.47 (40)

• Mecole Hardman - 0.36 (90)

• Demarcus Robinson - 0.24 (82)

• Darrel Williams - 0.17 (33)

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 0.11 (68)

Tyreek Hill’s per-route volume is actually up from 2020 (0.62), which is largely driven by his big Week 1. Travis Kelce was at 0.60 last year, so doing his normal stuff.

Mecole Hardman’s routes are up this year, but he’s fallen from 0.47 last year to 0.36 so far in 2021, while Byron Pringle has jumped from 0.29 last year up ahead of him in per-route volume. These are small samples, and I’m still somewhat interested in Hardman’s routes, especially since he’s not competing with Pringle as much as Demarcus Robinson, who was at 0.30 last year and is even lower this year.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was at 0.31 last year, so it’s hard to explain the substantial drop in his ability to earn targets per route.

Los Angeles Chargers

• Mike Williams - 0.69 (111)

• Keenan Allen - 0.64 (122)

• Jared Cook - 0.40 (92)

• Austin Ekeler - 0.32 (79)

• Josh Palmer - 0.28 (25)

• Jalen Guyton - 0.21 (98)

• Donald Parham - 0.15 (35)

Mike Williams breakout szn. Williams was at 0.50 last year but has made some big gains in the short and intermediate areas. Keenan Allen meanwhile was at 0.60 last year so he’s fine per-route.

Austin Ekeler had the zero-target Week 1, but has rebounded nicely and isn’t far off from his 0.40 mark last year. Jalen Guyton is a bigger wind sprinter than Demarcus Robinson.

Los Angeles Rams

• Cooper Kupp - 0.81 (95)

• DeSean Jackson - 0.75 (26)

• Robert Woods - 0.54 (82)

• Van Jefferson - 0.42 (83)

• Tyler Higbee - 0.30 (78)

• Darrell Henderson - 0.23 (42)

• Sony Michel - 0.21 (29)

This is a really interesting one. Cooper Kupp led the Rams at 0.50 last year, so the gains are massive. Robert Woods was at 0.45, so he’s actually gained too. Van Jefferson was at 0.48 in his small sample. Tyler Higbee’s routes are up but his wTPRR is down from 0.43 last year.

The biggest thing is there’s more volume overall, specifically in terms of air yards since the target rate is pretty static. DeSean Jackson obviously pops here but it’s great news for everyone.

Las Vegas

• Darren Waller - 0.61 (132)

• Henry Ruggs III - 0.58 (94)

• Hunter Renfrow - 0.55 (91)

• Alec Ingold - 0.50 (25)

• Kenyan Drake - 0.36 (76)

• Bryan Edwards - 0.34 (111)

• Zay Jones - 0.29 (30)

• Foster Moreau - 0.23 (55)

Henry Ruggs was only at 0.39 last year, so he’s made some nice Year 2 gains. Bryan Edwards has also gained some from last year, but isn’t really relevant at 0.34 and needs to earn more volume.

Despite the massive Week 1, Darren Waller is actually down from 2020 overall (was at 0.63 last year). And Hunter Renfrow (0.44 last year) is up a bit. I think Waller will be fine, but if you told me after the first half of Week 1 that he’d be here after three weeks, I wouldn’t have believed you.

Miami

• Mike Gesicki - 0.54 (95)

• Will Fuller V - 0.50 (40)

• DeVante Parker - 0.50 (122)

• Salvon Ahmed - 0.42 (27)

• Jaylen Waddle - 0.41 (121)

• Myles Gaskin - 0.38 (64)

• Albert Wilson - 0.37 (50)

• Durham Smythe - 0.11 (37)

It’s been very balanced in Miami, but it’s interesting to see Mike Gesicki at the top and Will Fuller right behind him after just one week. Fuller only ran routes on 70% of dropbacks but saw over 100 air yards and was the go-to first read on the game-tying 2-point conversion to force overtime.

DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle have led the team in routes comfortably. Waddle dominated short-area volume out of the slot this week.

Myles Gaskin’s 0.38 is right in line with last year, and there’s a lot about his usage that reminds of early 2020 right now, which isn’t all good (a goal-line vulture) but not all bad either.

Minnesota

• Justin Jefferson - 0.62 (121)

• Adam Thielen - 0.44 (123)

• Alexander Mattison - 0.43 (34)

• Tyler Conklin - 0.42 (79)

• Dalvin Cook - 0.36 (43)

• K.J. Osborn - 0.32 (101)

Here’s the “why you shouldn’t be worried about Justin Jefferson” stat. Hopefully you never were. Jefferson was at 0.61 last year, and is fine, and Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn have both just run hot with efficiency. The TDs have masked that Thielen is seeing less volume, down from 0.58 last year.

New England

• James White - 0.72 (38)

• Jonnu Smith - 0.67 (48)

• Jakobi Meyers - 0.58 (124)

• Nelson Agholor - 0.40 (117)

• Kendrick Bourne - 0.39 (94)

• Hunter Henry - 0.36 (86)

• Damien Harris - 0.33 (31)

So that’s an interesting name at the top, because James White is now out for the year. He hasn’t run a ton of routes, but when he has, he’s been targeted at a high clip.

Hunter Henry is running way more routes than Jonnu Smith, but Smith is earning way more volume per-route, so nothing has mattered.

Jakobi Meyers has been great so far, and actually a touch down from 2021’s 0.61, and is the clear best option in this passing game with the huge routes and the strong wTPRR.

New Orleans

• Juwan Johnson - 0.64 (30)

• Deonte Harris - 0.48 (48)

• Marquez Callaway - 0.45 (62)

• Alvin Kamara - 0.38 (56)

• Adam Trautman - 0.29 (43)

• Ty Montgomery - 0.12 (28)

The Saints have only thrown 63 passes through three games, which is five more than Ben Roethlisberger threw in Week 3 alone.

Juwan Johnson looks solid, but has run fewer routes than Adam Trautman. Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris are pretty meh. Kenny Stills had a 1.28 wTPRR on his 10 routes this week, which is a super small sample, but he came in off the street and immediately dominated volume while out there. Might be worth a look in deep leagues.

Alvin Kamara was at 0.52 last year, and his 0.38 is still solid, but it’s probably not getting back up there without Drew Brees. So there’s two sides hurting him right now — that lack of per-route volume, and then also the ridiculously low number of overall dropbacks. The good news is his route percentage is up this year, so if they throw at a reasonable clip at some point, he could be fine with a bit of a dip in his wTPRR.

New York Giants

• Darius Slayton - 0.64 (63)

• Sterling Shepard - 0.57 (92)

• Kenny Golladay - 0.53 (102)

• Evan Engram - 0.33 (30)

• Kyle Rudolph - 0.28 (58)

• Saquon Barkley - 0.28 (76)

• Kaden Smith - 0.22 (31)

• Kadarius Toney - 0.18 (45)

Another balanced team that isn’t exactly an efficient passing offense. Darius Slayton has the early lead, and he’s peaking a bit after his 0.49 last year. Sterling Shepard was right at 0.57 last year to lead the team, so his early success largely looks like who he is.

Kenny Golladay was at 0.68 in Detroit last year, and things haven’t looked great for him early this year. Kadarius Toney has made no impact on his routes.

And Saquon Barkley is a little low for a high-end back but saw his best volume in Week 3, so hopefully that continues to build.

New York Jets

• Elijah Moore - 0.59 (86)

• Corey Davis - 0.58 (100)

• Jeff Smith - 0.49 (26)

• Braxton Berrios - 0.44 (93)

• Michael Carter - 0.37 (36)

• Ryan Griffin - 0.36 (45)

• Ty Johnson - 0.32 (54)

• Tyler Kroft - 0.29 (65)

• Keelan Cole - 0.20 (29)

Ditto what I said above about balance and the offense. Elijah Moore looks really good early. (Thank you to those who noted his concussion after I missed that while writing Signals this week. That’s been corrected, and I appreciate the feedback.)

Corey Davis is down a bit from his 0.64 in Tennessee last year, but not by much. He’s just in a less efficient passing offense by leaps and bounds.

The running backs are both in solid spots, and Ty Johnson is running more routes but Michael Carter has a strong profile there and has been solid at earning volume so far. He’s still the upside play.

Philadelphia

• DeVonta Smith - 0.53 (111)

• Jalen Reagor - 0.51 (93)

• Kenneth Gainwell - 0.41 (34)

• Dallas Goedert - 0.37 (66)

• Zach Ertz - 0.34 (69)

• Quez Watkins - 0.29 (66)

• Miles Sanders - 0.21 (62)

DeVonta Smith had been the clear No. 1, but Jalen Reagor had a nice Week 3. Smith still has the easy lead in routes, but Reagor is certainly interesting.

Beyond them, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, and Quez Watkins are all in the same routes range. Goedert was at a 0.48 wTPRR last year, Ertz at 0.43, and Watkins at 0.37 on his 80 routes, so all those numbers are down a bit this year.

Miles Sanders was at 0.31 last year, and Kenneth Gainwell seems to be taking a lot of the two-minute drill and garbage time type stuff, which is probably helping to drive some of the disparities with these backup RBs having the much higher rates.

Pittsburgh

• Diontae Johnson - 0.75 (70)

• Chase Claypool - 0.65 (117)

• Pat Freiermuth - 0.43 (56)

• Najee Harris - 0.37 (121)

• JuJu Smith-Schuster - 0.35 (98)

• James Washington - 0.29 (67)

• Ray-Ray McCloud III - 0.21 (41)

• Eric Ebron - 0.21 (75)

Najee Harris’s routes are pretty hilarious.

Diontae Johnson is picking up where he left off last year (0.63), Chase Claypool keeps seeing the air yards (0.66 last year), and JuJu Smith-Schuster has somehow lost volume, which didn’t seem possible. Smith-Schuster was at 0.42 last year and this per-route number down at 0.35 is just not a good look at all.

Pat Freiermuth is probably already better than Eric Ebron. He might be better than JuJu, too.

San Francisco

• Deebo Samuel - 0.72 (94)

• Trent Sherfield - 0.54 (28)

• George Kittle - 0.47 (81)

• Kyle Juszczyk - 0.33 (50)

• Brandon Aiyuk - 0.27 (73)

• Mohamed Sanu - 0.27 (62)

Brandon Aiyuk had a nice Week 3, but so far he’s earned exactly half the per-route volume of last year (0.54). Obviously it’s not just the lack of routes that’s a concern, but hopefully he’ll build off Week 3.

Deebo Samuel has jumped way up from 0.47 last year, notably averaging more than three times as many air yards per route. Last year, Aiyuk’s downfield role limited Samuel, but this year we’re seeing Deebo get more downfield looks, at least for now.

George Kittle was at an elite 0.66 last year, and I expect him to get back into that range soon.

None of the RBs are listed here because of the routes cutoff, but JaMycal Hasty has been the best in their small samples at 0.42, followed by Trey Sermon (0.25) and Elijah Mitchell (0.12). These are all samples of around 20 routes, so not putting much weight into any of it.

Seattle

• D.K. Metcalf - 0.72 (95)

• Tyler Lockett - 0.60 (96)

• Will Dissly - 0.25 (37)

• Freddie Swain - 0.24 (75)

• Gerald Everett - 0.21 (71)

• Chris Carson - 0.17 (44)

D.K. Metcalf led Tyler Lockett 0.56 to 0.53 last year, but both have elevated this season, and basically no one else matters in this passing game. I mean look at that gap. That won’t stick, but wow.

Chris Carson is a surprise. He was at 0.39 last year, but Travis Homer (0.37 on 22 routes) has started to take over a lot of the two-minute stuff.

Tampa Bay

• Rob Gronkowski - 0.63 (89)

• Antonio Brown - 0.60 (57)

• Tyler Johnson - 0.60 (37)

• Mike Evans - 0.55 (130)

• Giovani Bernard - 0.52 (47)

• Chris Godwin - 0.40 (146)

• Leonard Fournette - 0.35 (66)

• Cameron Brate - 0.19 (53)

• Scotty Miller - 0.14 (48)

Except for Rob Gronkowski jumping from 0.50 to 0.63, this is more or less how it looked last year, with Gronk and Antonio Brown (0.65 last year) running fewer routes than Mike Evans (0.53 last year) and Chris Godwin (0.48), and the routes and per-route differences coming out in the wash a bit.

Leonard Fournette is right where he was last year, while Giovani Bernard is boosted by his high-volume Week 3 in comeback mode.

Tennessee

• A.J. Brown - 0.65 (84)

• Julio Jones - 0.55 (91)

• Derrick Henry - 0.40 (51)

• Chester Rogers - 0.37 (77)

• Jeremy McNichols - 0.36 (41)

• Geoff Swaim - 0.35 (41)

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 0.31 (45)

• Anthony Firkser - 0.30 (27)

• MyCole Pruitt - 0.28 (34)

A.J. Brown looks fine; he was right at 0.65 last year. So far in 2021, he has the bad drops game and an early injury exit, and that’s in three weeks. It’s been a rough start, obviously, but he didn’t forget how to earn volume. Julio Jones is down a bit from his 0.60 last year, which was down a bit from his previous peak numbers.

Derrick Henry was at 0.18 last year, so he’s running more routes and also being targeted more per-route, and those were basically his only weaknesses.

It’s a small sample, and was only 64 routes last year at 0.32, but there’s not much that suggests Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is going to earn a bunch of volume if he gets extended run this week. He might if no one else is out there, but if he were to wind up chalky in DFS, I’d probably fade.

Washington

• Terry McLaurin - 0.56 (107)

• Dyami Brown - 0.37 (90)

• Adam Humphries - 0.36 (78)

• Logan Thomas - 0.34 (100)

• J.D. McKissic - 0.33 (51)

• Antonio Gibson - 0.32 (46)

Terry McLaurin was at 0.53 last year, and I’ve noted before he’s a high routes guy but never really pops in the TPRR or wTPRR stuff. Logan Thomas is similar, but he was at 0.40 last year, so he’s lost a bit.

Rookie Dyami Brown has been alright for the first three games of his career, but that’s not anything great and he seemed to lose a little work in Week 3 to Cam Sims (0.49 on 15 routes so far) unless there was an injury I missed.

Antonio Gibson is right there with J.D. McKissic in terms of both routes and per-route volume, with are both steps up for him. Gibson was at 0.37 last year, but McKissic was up at 0.48 in an offense that targeted the RBs a ton with Alex Smith under center. This year, those numbers have both come down, but the gap has narrowed. I’m convinced there’s been so much made of Gibson’s situation because expectations wildly varied coming into the year.