It's always risky to say something is the best ever ... so I'll say for me, this might be your most helpful post ever - and thanks to Dan for the question. I have had this question every year but could not figure out how to articulate it.
Just here to say that, as a first time subscriber, I really enjoyed prepping for my draft by reading your content. It basically sent me down a very specific path and I ended up trying to stick to the 7 pillars as much as possible, although I got beaten to Hockenson so I waited on TE and landed on LaPorta. Needless to say Smith-Njigba also made my team. Anyway, this was a long way to say thank you for the great content.
I like this idea quite a bit. I especially like the QB pick, and my only thoughts are I might go TE or RB instead of the WR at the 2/3 turn, in which case I might wind up going RB/RB at the 4/5 turn, or perhaps taking a WR there.
I don't mind really pushing WR depth this year. I feel like the more and more I push it, the better I like my roster this year.
I hear you, but knowing my league, I would be shock if there are two RBs I like in the 4/5 turn.
I would also bet one of Waddle, Amonra or Wilson might fall to the last pick in the second (because of RBs going earlier lol) that is why I am thinking WR there.
You’re still not fully coming to terms with the small profit/loss player question though. Just wishing away the problem by saying those players won’t win your league isn’t good enough, partly because it’s not really true. Maybe they don’t win your league all by themselves, but they can keep you in contention with an accumulation of narrow, humble wins during the bye week stretch while you’re waiting for the low floor/high ceiling breakout guys on your bench to actually break out as the season progresses. Also, in auction leagues knowing whether to pay $10 or $15 for that sort of player when that’s what’s left on the board will determine whether or not you have an extra $5 to deploy grabbing a few of those deep sleepers people spill so much ink over for $2 or $3 when the rest of the league can only spend $1. Being able to wring out small profits consistently on such players matters much more than people think, but the industry keeps chasing the lottery ticket type players because that’s more exciting and gets more press.
Criticism noted, and I even think there's some validity to it, but we're just going to disagree here. You're confidently stating I'm not coming to terms with something, and wishing away a problem, and from my perspective, I see someone putting far too much weight on a minor edge — something I consider very often, and consider the best ways to communicate it but with the knowledge most people overplay this exact point you're making, which isn't novel, and has been overvalued for all of the 20 years I've been around this hobby, as people do overwhelmingly start from an assumption that what you describe is the "right" way to play and need to be taught to be more aggressive to reach the appropriate balance, which is why I am good at my job.
But again, we aren't going to find common ground here, because you're very confident you've uncovered a major leak in my whole way of playing.
Thanks for this Ben, I love that you as well as Rotoviz are tying in the home league aspect to your content this year.
I am in a long running 14 team half PPR league, with scoring geared to favor RBs (10 yds rushing per pt, 15 yds receiving per pt) and is very generous to QBs (6 pt passing TDs, -1 pt for INTs, and yardage bonuses for 300+ passing yds, very hard to make serious hay in the playoffs without elite QB performances). Aside from a few of us, most are grabbing RBs early on, and I'm finding success with an anchor RB approach recently. I probably would have taken the title last year if not for some badly timed injury luck (ie Jalen Hurts missing wk17). Would you prioritize an anchor RB and elite QB approach in this case?
I'm thinking Herbert is the lowest ranked QB I want to leave this draft with. I'd also love to get an elite TE, but worried about sacrificing early WR firepower if also anchoring with an RB early.
“I’m more into Zero RB in SuperFlex”. Ben, given the availability of potentially high roi rb dead zone picks in 2023, why does the superflex format make zero rb more attractive?
for example, if one takes two elite qbs first, isn’t that that simply a 1 qb detour since around 12 qbs will probably be gone by the end of round two. how does that change the draft structure to favor zero rb?
It doesn’t change anything and you’re absolutely right. The comment about being more into Zero RB in SF is a multiyear one where that’s always the case, but you’re correct that it’s not necessarily my preference in 2023 to go ZRB in SF, if that makes sense.
Just functionally, having QBs matter more and having more roster spots makes Zero RB easier to employ when you can load up more firepower across a deeper set of non-RB starting lineup spots. But that doesn’t mean it has to be that way.
Hey Ben, thank you for this! I found you via the ETE Projections pod and appreciate all your insight.
I have a question surrounding the 2/3 turn. I’m in a home league that is 12-team, .5 ppr with a 1st round keeper, draft pick trading is allowed & only 2 starting WR spots. I kept CMC and my first pick is 3.2. I don’t pick again until 5.2 but I average about 2 picks per round from the 5th until the 9th.
I’m really stuck on whether I should lock in an elite QB (probably taking Hurts as first one off the board) or take a risk with some lower tiered WRs (Olave, Higgins, Devonta, DK) at the 3.2 pick. I try to take guys on good offenses so even though Olave’s opportunity is there, the NO offense concerns me. Devonta and Higgins are both the 2nd (or 1B option), which also caps upside.
I feel like my entire draft strategy hinges on this pick, so I want to have it thought through. Any lean on how you’d approach my strategy given the variance of picks?
This relates to the conundrum in my home league, which I’d love your take on if you’ve got time. It involves an issue that perhaps other readers are dealing with: how to account for extra early draft picks in a keeper league.
I’m theoretically set up well in my 12-team PPR league where the starting requirements are 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and a RB/WR/TE flex. We can keep three players with no restrictions or caveats, and I’m keeping Jonathan Taylor, Ja’Marr Chase, and Garrett Wilson.
After the 36 players are kept, our draft basically starts in the 4th round. Younger players are pushed up slightly, but the draft proceeds much more like a redraft league than a dynasty one.
My nice situation is that I have two 5th round picks and two 7th round picks. I finished in the middle of the pack last year (despite drafting Kenneth Walker, Tony Pollard, and Garrett Wilson!) so all these picks are basically mid-round. My question is: how should this embarrassment of riches alter my draft strategy?
My current thought is to go QB (Burrow/Jackson/Fields) in the 4th because, as you said, I’m not overly inspired by the receiver options in that range. I suppose I could consider Gibbs, Etienne, or Hall there if they fell, with hope that they could become a keeper next year. The only TE option to consider would be Hockenson.
Then I’m thinking both WR (Watson, Aiyuk, etc.) and TE (Pitts?) in the 5th. And then I could load up on upside WRs and RBs with my 6th rounder and my two 7th rounders. My RB2 would probably end up being someone like James Cook, Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, etc.
I’m curious to hear your thoughts. I seem to be very well set-up but need to actually capitalize. Thanks very much!
Picking 2nd in my 10 team home league I'm really tempted to go WR/WR then snag Jalen Hurts in the 3rd. It looks really enticing on paper. Feels a little gross as I usually wait on QB. Do you think passing on a RB at the 2/3 turn in favor for Hurts is a bad idea? I've played around in mocks and can't decide what build I like better.
given that elite qbs are generally being pushed into higher ADP this year, i wonder if the elite qb strategy in superflex is achievable. for example, your entire first qb tier is gone in round 1 based on current sleeper superflex adp. so if the “elite qb strategy” involves two picks from your first tier, it doesn't really seem viable.
i would also note that 3/7ths of your 1a/1b qb tier busted last year, if that is a real trend, it seems like a pretty high bust rate for the first two rounds in a draft? the qbs that busted, kyler, jackson and lance, are all hybrid qbs which makes me wonder if the running qbs, exposed to more hits, are riskier than one might think?
otoh, anyone not taking two elite qbs probably wasnt winning last year…
Thanks for the great article as always Ben! I'm in a 14 team half ppr 2 RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 flex auction. I've tracked old values (e.g. on average RB1 goes for $88 - yes, really) and while this year we are *FINALLY* switching from standard to half ppr, I don't imagine the values will change that much. Projecting from those historical values, is the following idea a reasonable adaptation of your structure?
$200 auction budget
WR 8: $44
WR 10: $41
RB 15: $41 (I'm gambling here that Hall, ETN, or Gibbs will fall here based on their ESPN ranks)
QB 4: $25
WR 22: $16
WR 35: $5
TE 7: $6
And the remainder to RB upside guys, D, and kicker. If I get caught at the Hall, ETN, Gibbs tier break, my thinking is that I'd go up to about $50 for one of them, just go for Richardson as my QB for ~$3 and allocate the remaining money to getting a better TE.
Interesting--thanks. Do you agree in my unique format (0.5ppr, QB,TE,WR, RB, 5 flex, 6 bench)TEN TEAM LEAGUE...that you would prioritize QB and TE a bit higher given its a ten man? I pick 6th, I assume you'd be good with Kelce there if it starts (Ek, CMC, and the 3 top WRs)?
i am addicted to taking Travis Kelce in my longrunning "high-stakes" Point-Per-First-Down (no ppr) Auction, where he usually goes for a late-to-mid 1st round equivalent price.
what builds make sense off of that?
TE
followed by....best Elite WR i can get at a "2nd round" equivalent cost, then using auction flexibility to pay a "3rd round" eq on a Hero RB who slipped a bit?
It's always risky to say something is the best ever ... so I'll say for me, this might be your most helpful post ever - and thanks to Dan for the question. I have had this question every year but could not figure out how to articulate it.
You were right Ben, this squarely delivered. Thank you!!
Just here to say that, as a first time subscriber, I really enjoyed prepping for my draft by reading your content. It basically sent me down a very specific path and I ended up trying to stick to the 7 pillars as much as possible, although I got beaten to Hockenson so I waited on TE and landed on LaPorta. Needless to say Smith-Njigba also made my team. Anyway, this was a long way to say thank you for the great content.
Appreciate you Andres!
Excellent write up.
I have the 1.01 in my home league. It is half PPR with 2 WR and a flex.
How would you change your approach in this set up? RBs go particularly earlier than ADP.
I am considering somethin like:
WR (Jefferson)
WR-QB (I think QBs are more important in half ppr)
RB-TE
RB-WR
RB-WR
Take the best available RB WR combos
I like this idea quite a bit. I especially like the QB pick, and my only thoughts are I might go TE or RB instead of the WR at the 2/3 turn, in which case I might wind up going RB/RB at the 4/5 turn, or perhaps taking a WR there.
I don't mind really pushing WR depth this year. I feel like the more and more I push it, the better I like my roster this year.
I hear you, but knowing my league, I would be shock if there are two RBs I like in the 4/5 turn.
I would also bet one of Waddle, Amonra or Wilson might fall to the last pick in the second (because of RBs going earlier lol) that is why I am thinking WR there.
It would look something like: (1) Jefferson, (2) Waddle, (3) Hurts, (4) Watson, (5) Pierce/Dobbins/Walker (whoever falls), (6) Cook/Montgomery/Javonte, (7) Diontae/Dotson/JSN
I dont mind punting TE to the last round (in half ppr they score the least amount of points, targeting LaPorta)
This is fantastic content and makes me even happier to support you! Thanks Ben
You’re still not fully coming to terms with the small profit/loss player question though. Just wishing away the problem by saying those players won’t win your league isn’t good enough, partly because it’s not really true. Maybe they don’t win your league all by themselves, but they can keep you in contention with an accumulation of narrow, humble wins during the bye week stretch while you’re waiting for the low floor/high ceiling breakout guys on your bench to actually break out as the season progresses. Also, in auction leagues knowing whether to pay $10 or $15 for that sort of player when that’s what’s left on the board will determine whether or not you have an extra $5 to deploy grabbing a few of those deep sleepers people spill so much ink over for $2 or $3 when the rest of the league can only spend $1. Being able to wring out small profits consistently on such players matters much more than people think, but the industry keeps chasing the lottery ticket type players because that’s more exciting and gets more press.
Criticism noted, and I even think there's some validity to it, but we're just going to disagree here. You're confidently stating I'm not coming to terms with something, and wishing away a problem, and from my perspective, I see someone putting far too much weight on a minor edge — something I consider very often, and consider the best ways to communicate it but with the knowledge most people overplay this exact point you're making, which isn't novel, and has been overvalued for all of the 20 years I've been around this hobby, as people do overwhelmingly start from an assumption that what you describe is the "right" way to play and need to be taught to be more aggressive to reach the appropriate balance, which is why I am good at my job.
But again, we aren't going to find common ground here, because you're very confident you've uncovered a major leak in my whole way of playing.
Thanks for this Ben, I love that you as well as Rotoviz are tying in the home league aspect to your content this year.
I am in a long running 14 team half PPR league, with scoring geared to favor RBs (10 yds rushing per pt, 15 yds receiving per pt) and is very generous to QBs (6 pt passing TDs, -1 pt for INTs, and yardage bonuses for 300+ passing yds, very hard to make serious hay in the playoffs without elite QB performances). Aside from a few of us, most are grabbing RBs early on, and I'm finding success with an anchor RB approach recently. I probably would have taken the title last year if not for some badly timed injury luck (ie Jalen Hurts missing wk17). Would you prioritize an anchor RB and elite QB approach in this case?
I'm thinking Herbert is the lowest ranked QB I want to leave this draft with. I'd also love to get an elite TE, but worried about sacrificing early WR firepower if also anchoring with an RB early.
“I’m more into Zero RB in SuperFlex”. Ben, given the availability of potentially high roi rb dead zone picks in 2023, why does the superflex format make zero rb more attractive?
for example, if one takes two elite qbs first, isn’t that that simply a 1 qb detour since around 12 qbs will probably be gone by the end of round two. how does that change the draft structure to favor zero rb?
best,
It doesn’t change anything and you’re absolutely right. The comment about being more into Zero RB in SF is a multiyear one where that’s always the case, but you’re correct that it’s not necessarily my preference in 2023 to go ZRB in SF, if that makes sense.
Just functionally, having QBs matter more and having more roster spots makes Zero RB easier to employ when you can load up more firepower across a deeper set of non-RB starting lineup spots. But that doesn’t mean it has to be that way.
Hey Ben, thank you for this! I found you via the ETE Projections pod and appreciate all your insight.
I have a question surrounding the 2/3 turn. I’m in a home league that is 12-team, .5 ppr with a 1st round keeper, draft pick trading is allowed & only 2 starting WR spots. I kept CMC and my first pick is 3.2. I don’t pick again until 5.2 but I average about 2 picks per round from the 5th until the 9th.
I’m really stuck on whether I should lock in an elite QB (probably taking Hurts as first one off the board) or take a risk with some lower tiered WRs (Olave, Higgins, Devonta, DK) at the 3.2 pick. I try to take guys on good offenses so even though Olave’s opportunity is there, the NO offense concerns me. Devonta and Higgins are both the 2nd (or 1B option), which also caps upside.
I feel like my entire draft strategy hinges on this pick, so I want to have it thought through. Any lean on how you’d approach my strategy given the variance of picks?
Great piece, Ben. Thanks!
This relates to the conundrum in my home league, which I’d love your take on if you’ve got time. It involves an issue that perhaps other readers are dealing with: how to account for extra early draft picks in a keeper league.
I’m theoretically set up well in my 12-team PPR league where the starting requirements are 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and a RB/WR/TE flex. We can keep three players with no restrictions or caveats, and I’m keeping Jonathan Taylor, Ja’Marr Chase, and Garrett Wilson.
After the 36 players are kept, our draft basically starts in the 4th round. Younger players are pushed up slightly, but the draft proceeds much more like a redraft league than a dynasty one.
My nice situation is that I have two 5th round picks and two 7th round picks. I finished in the middle of the pack last year (despite drafting Kenneth Walker, Tony Pollard, and Garrett Wilson!) so all these picks are basically mid-round. My question is: how should this embarrassment of riches alter my draft strategy?
My current thought is to go QB (Burrow/Jackson/Fields) in the 4th because, as you said, I’m not overly inspired by the receiver options in that range. I suppose I could consider Gibbs, Etienne, or Hall there if they fell, with hope that they could become a keeper next year. The only TE option to consider would be Hockenson.
Then I’m thinking both WR (Watson, Aiyuk, etc.) and TE (Pitts?) in the 5th. And then I could load up on upside WRs and RBs with my 6th rounder and my two 7th rounders. My RB2 would probably end up being someone like James Cook, Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, etc.
I’m curious to hear your thoughts. I seem to be very well set-up but need to actually capitalize. Thanks very much!
In a high stakes ppr home league
1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
2 FLEX
1 SF
i got pick 1.02 so i will take one of those top 3 Qbs
and then should i be looking to also get an early QB2 in SF if i can get Tua or Watson in the second?
Or should i be focusing on WR because of how many i can play?
Picking 2nd in my 10 team home league I'm really tempted to go WR/WR then snag Jalen Hurts in the 3rd. It looks really enticing on paper. Feels a little gross as I usually wait on QB. Do you think passing on a RB at the 2/3 turn in favor for Hurts is a bad idea? I've played around in mocks and can't decide what build I like better.
given that elite qbs are generally being pushed into higher ADP this year, i wonder if the elite qb strategy in superflex is achievable. for example, your entire first qb tier is gone in round 1 based on current sleeper superflex adp. so if the “elite qb strategy” involves two picks from your first tier, it doesn't really seem viable.
i would also note that 3/7ths of your 1a/1b qb tier busted last year, if that is a real trend, it seems like a pretty high bust rate for the first two rounds in a draft? the qbs that busted, kyler, jackson and lance, are all hybrid qbs which makes me wonder if the running qbs, exposed to more hits, are riskier than one might think?
otoh, anyone not taking two elite qbs probably wasnt winning last year…
best,
Thanks for the great article as always Ben! I'm in a 14 team half ppr 2 RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 flex auction. I've tracked old values (e.g. on average RB1 goes for $88 - yes, really) and while this year we are *FINALLY* switching from standard to half ppr, I don't imagine the values will change that much. Projecting from those historical values, is the following idea a reasonable adaptation of your structure?
$200 auction budget
WR 8: $44
WR 10: $41
RB 15: $41 (I'm gambling here that Hall, ETN, or Gibbs will fall here based on their ESPN ranks)
QB 4: $25
WR 22: $16
WR 35: $5
TE 7: $6
And the remainder to RB upside guys, D, and kicker. If I get caught at the Hall, ETN, Gibbs tier break, my thinking is that I'd go up to about $50 for one of them, just go for Richardson as my QB for ~$3 and allocate the remaining money to getting a better TE.
Interesting--thanks. Do you agree in my unique format (0.5ppr, QB,TE,WR, RB, 5 flex, 6 bench)TEN TEAM LEAGUE...that you would prioritize QB and TE a bit higher given its a ten man? I pick 6th, I assume you'd be good with Kelce there if it starts (Ek, CMC, and the 3 top WRs)?
i am addicted to taking Travis Kelce in my longrunning "high-stakes" Point-Per-First-Down (no ppr) Auction, where he usually goes for a late-to-mid 1st round equivalent price.
what builds make sense off of that?
TE
followed by....best Elite WR i can get at a "2nd round" equivalent cost, then using auction flexibility to pay a "3rd round" eq on a Hero RB who slipped a bit?