Hey Ben, great article as always! I’m curious if you’ve listened to episode 524 of the late round podcast. There JJ goes over ambiguous backfields and lays out a theory for drafting the RB1s from ambiguous backfields with multiple backs taken in the middle rounds. He theorizes these backfields have good situations but have lower adp due to uncertainty over who is the starter, but he shows that drafting the RB1s here (by ADP) is a good (not perfect) way to find RBs who significantly outperform adp (don’t just slightly beat adp as you discuss above). He is high on players like etiene, and javonte Williams this year due to this analysis, players you are also high on. But he is also high on chase Edmonds due to this finding, where I know you usually like to target younger rbs to breakout, and he is lower on Michael carter since there are not other RBs drafted high in that backfield indicating it is an undesirable situation. I’m curious your thoughts on this theory and if it’s changed your feelings about any mid round RBs, in particular Edmonds and Michael carter. Thanks again for all you do!
Hey sorry for the delay on this reply Will. I did check out that work from JJ and thought it was awesome. Definitely made me reconsider some things. At the same time, JJ set some pretty specific parameters so I'm trying not to read too much into the RB1 part of the results outside those specific parameters, which I think JJ would also recommend. Those parameters are, more or less, that the two backs are being drafted pretty close, and that there is significant draft capital in the backfield overall.
It does follow logically for me. Wisdom of the crowds is a powerful thing, but price is also very important. So when there's a little bigger gap in ADP or the RB2 from an ambiguous backfield is going in the later rounds, the price sensitivity we need to have matters. There's so much more room to beat ADP from there. But when the two backs are going close and the opportunity cost for both picks are similar, we should probably trust WOTC and the favored bet by the market.
Anyway, that's just how I'm thinking through that. Definitely was great work from JJ.
So glad to hear Stealing Bananas isn't just a limited run for the summer! Incredible podcast.
Hey Ben, great article as always! I’m curious if you’ve listened to episode 524 of the late round podcast. There JJ goes over ambiguous backfields and lays out a theory for drafting the RB1s from ambiguous backfields with multiple backs taken in the middle rounds. He theorizes these backfields have good situations but have lower adp due to uncertainty over who is the starter, but he shows that drafting the RB1s here (by ADP) is a good (not perfect) way to find RBs who significantly outperform adp (don’t just slightly beat adp as you discuss above). He is high on players like etiene, and javonte Williams this year due to this analysis, players you are also high on. But he is also high on chase Edmonds due to this finding, where I know you usually like to target younger rbs to breakout, and he is lower on Michael carter since there are not other RBs drafted high in that backfield indicating it is an undesirable situation. I’m curious your thoughts on this theory and if it’s changed your feelings about any mid round RBs, in particular Edmonds and Michael carter. Thanks again for all you do!
Hey sorry for the delay on this reply Will. I did check out that work from JJ and thought it was awesome. Definitely made me reconsider some things. At the same time, JJ set some pretty specific parameters so I'm trying not to read too much into the RB1 part of the results outside those specific parameters, which I think JJ would also recommend. Those parameters are, more or less, that the two backs are being drafted pretty close, and that there is significant draft capital in the backfield overall.
It does follow logically for me. Wisdom of the crowds is a powerful thing, but price is also very important. So when there's a little bigger gap in ADP or the RB2 from an ambiguous backfield is going in the later rounds, the price sensitivity we need to have matters. There's so much more room to beat ADP from there. But when the two backs are going close and the opportunity cost for both picks are similar, we should probably trust WOTC and the favored bet by the market.
Anyway, that's just how I'm thinking through that. Definitely was great work from JJ.