Preseason Stealing Signals, Week 1
The Signal and the Noise from our first look at all 32 teams
Your first question is likely, “How much should we care about this?”
Well, I just skimmed through last year’s version of this post, and honestly, it might be some of the least actionable stuff you’ll ever see. There’s stuff I got right — I noted the uproar about Tank Bigsby coming on for a short-yardage touch was overblown, and added “he does not play at the same speed as (Travis) Etienne, full stop.” But I was also seeing in small samples what I wanted to see, in some spots.
I thought C.J. Stroud “looked solid delivering the ball” but because “he was under pressure a lot” he “might struggle,” because that was my take coming in. Meanwhile, I said Bryce Young “looked very comfortable and poised for (his) first action.” (In my defense, in my Preseason Week 2 notes, I wrote: “Last week, I wrote about Bryce Young looking comfortable in the pocket in his debut, despite him not really having great weapons. I didn’t feel the same way in this one.”)
It’s very hit or miss, and figuring out a pattern about what mattered and what didn’t feels impossible. It’s only with the benefit of hindsight that we can see the trends that we should have paid attention to. There’s always someone who will say, “There was hype for [insert breakout] last August,” without understanding how much hype there is in August, and how much of it falls flat.
The year prior, in my Preseason Week 2 writeup, I wrote this:
One thing that’s absolutely true is we shouldn’t just be talent-agnostic and trying to figure out role; so much of antifragile drafting is about thinking through various possibilities for how a season can evolve, not what to expect in September. Our responses to the preseason, then, should be relative to our priors — we should be updating past opinions with the new information, not acting like every player who looks like they might get some early-season run suddenly matters.
The point is there’s a ton of football to come. Specific usage in Preseason Week 1 is probably a little overplayed, at least by some. There are a few different places you can find specific usage notes for these preseason games (I really liked Dwain McFarland’s straightforward writeup at Fantasy Life), and I do absolutely recommend familiarizing yourself with the way depth charts seem to be shaking out. But we don’t win a prize for predicting Week 1 depth charts. Many of the season’s biggest hits are players whose roles develop in-season.
We’re trying to predict where the talent is, and what cream can rise to the top of a chaotic NFL season. In that way, I do think just watching and seeing how guys look is pretty interesting, even in limited samples. We know it’s very difficult for subpar talents to make a meaningful impact in fantasy.
I watched at least the first drive for every team this weekend, and in many cases much more. I was very focused on how rookies look in their first NFL action, as well as what I’d say was the intent of the teams with anything they might have shown us. This year, my notes are a bit more vibes-based in some cases.
This is a list of stuff from Preseason Week 1 that I think either did or did not materially change the bets we are making.
Patriots 17, Panthers 3
Jacoby Brissett and Rhamondre Stevenson got the start, followed by Drake Maye and Antonio Gibson. It was very brief action for all, but the backs stayed on for their respective drives, with Stevenson looking good as the starter. Maye looked comfortable to my eye. A big takeaway for me was all the first-round QBs looked good, but Maye was used the least for whatever reason, and would be the possible exception to that point.
The receiver usage was kind of all over the place and for a team projected to score a league-low number of points, they are mostly an in-season waiver wire play.
The Panthers didn’t play Bryce Young or Andy Dalton, but had Jonathan Mingo out there for a drop on a play where he was pretty open in the middle of the field and the ball hit him in the chest. Mingo has made some camp buzz, but was woeful last year, and is a reason I’m not moving Xavier Legette too far down despite Legette’s slow camp and recent injury. (The answer, as always, is likely just Diontae Johnson.)
Giants 14, Lions 3
Both teams rested a lot of starters. For the Giants, Tyrone Tracy started, and looked solid on several carries. Eric Gray had a long TD run later, but you could really see the lack of long speed. He made a really nice cut in the hole to get into free space, and also made a nice catch on a wheel plus a solid gain on a screen play. But for all Gray did right, I just truly question whether he can turn an NFL corner, and with Tracy looking strong in his work and having a much better athletic profile, I moved Tracy up the ranks.
There was some buzz Antoine Green might start in three-WR sets for the Lions, but he played quite a bit with the backups here, while guys like Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond sat along with all the other key players. I’m not sure that’s a big negative for Green, who likely still needs to earn his role, but I would probably avoid trying to get that part of Detroit’s depth chart correct, as it is unlikely to be fantasy relevant anyway.
Dolphins 20, Falcons 13
Michael Penix got more than a quarter of run, and looked decent. I haven’t been super high on his transition to the pro game, but he was able to play his game in this one. He did miss a couple throws, which showed off some of the accuracy concerns I have, but he had a couple nice ones, as well. And just looking comfortable and in control of an NFL offense as if it were his college offense is a pretty huge win.
The Dolphins played all backups, with Jeff Wilson at RB. Wilson has always been efficient, but didn’t look particularly inspiring, and then Jaylen Wright got his turn a little later and was fantastic. Wright’s reportedly been tearing up camp, and I wouldn’t be too worried about him playing behind Wilson; in the scenarios where either De’Von Achane or Raheem Mostert miss time, I’d be happy to bet that Wright would be the third RB that could bring the most production over time. Wilson might still be at risk of being released, frankly, given how the Dolphins like to keep a fullback.
Texans 20, Steelers 12
C.J. Stroud played and hit Tank Dell for a long TD, where Dell made a couple guys miss in the open field to find paydirt. Stroud didn’t really get to throw a ton but that one strike was a quick read and great throw, getting it on Dell with room to move. If you’re on Team Stroud, you had to love how easy he made that look.
I thought Justin Fields played fine. The center exchange was bad, and he took two sacks. He also hit a couple nice throws. Pittsburgh did some more shotgun and passing than I’d expect. Fields got it out quickly on a few where it needed to get out to the perimeter to George Pickens. He wasn’t perfect, and hasn’t fixed all the issues he has overnight, but I was honestly surprised at some negative responses — to me there was some stuff that felt like a step in the right direction (he obviously still is who he is).
Both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren played, and there was a lot of subbing within drives, with probably close to a 50/50 split.
Dameon Pierce started for the Texans and rushed four times, but for only 4 yards. He was really poor in a new run scheme last year, and while he looks like the No. 2, I think you want to see something to think he’s a worthwhile late-round pick. And we did not see something; he didn’t look any better than last year. Obviously it’s just four touches.
There was a bit of a social media thing about a clip of Stefon Diggs and Stroud talking on the sideline, but that was so misstated as to almost irritate me. Diggs is a new WR, and Stroud was clearly engaged in the conversation. The assumption by some commenters was Diggs is already being an issue, and other commenters used that “cancer” word; we can’t know what was said but the overwhelming likelihood — and assumption that should clearly be made — is he’s explaining what he saw on a given route, against a particular look, because that’s imperative to developing QB-WR chemistry. I thought it was bullish; the stuff with Diggs always borders on aggravating but his personality is also going to ramp up the learning curve on this type of stuff, versus a more passive individual. And if you’ve heard literally anything from Stroud, he’s a perfect fit for this stuff; the media stuff he did with Micah Parsons this offseason shows a competitiveness but also his own strong passion for talking the ins and outs of the game. Diggs being in Stroud’s ear like, “On this read, I saw this, I might do this,” is exactly the type of thing I’d expect Stroud to essentially be able to perfectly visualize and follow. So this overly long bullet point is to say “Diggs is making himself an issue” is in my opinion the exact opposite takeaway. I think that conversation was a positive as these guys work toward a joint understanding in different situations. Obviously it can eventually become irritating, but it’s this type of thing that has no doubt played into Diggs’ monster volume-earning at all points in his career, so it’s a fine line and works both ways.
Noise: Stefon Diggs — any concern he’s being a problem over a preseason sideline conversation
Eagles 16, Ravens 13
We got backup QBs on both sides here. Kenneth Gainwell got the RB start for Philly, which wasn’t a big surprise given he’s the veteran. Honestly, it was maybe a mild surprise he played at all, suggesting a bit of an RB2 competition, rather than him getting a full seat while Will Shipley played. Shipley looked good when he got some play, showing some physicality as a runner, then catching a TD. I still wish he was on another team that threw to RBs more, but he’s my bet for the upside backup if Saquon Barkley misses extended time for any reason. We know Gainwell isn’t likely the answer in that scenario.
The Ravens had Josh Johnson at QB and Owen Wright at RB to start this game. I’m not sure who that is, but rookie Rasheen Ali came in after that. I would call that a little bit less bullish for Ali, in that multiple RBs were out and he still worked behind some create-a-player.
Jets 20, Commanders 17
Tyrod Taylor started for the Jets, with Braelon Allen at RB. Allen had a few strong runs, with a couple going for 10+ yards, and even his 4- and 5-yard gains were impressive. He also caught a pass that got wiped by penalty. I don’t think he’s a huge issue for Breece Hall, but he’d be a small part of why I have Bijan Robinson over Breece. I do think the types of analysts that are inclined to care too much about specific usage will be mentioning Allen’s role as an issue for Breece at times this year, as in suggesting that he’s cutting in too much, so if you’re in on Breece, I’d just say to be ready for that possibility. But to be clear, I am both saying that could happen and that it won’t actually matter, because Breece is going to get his if the thesis that he’s more or less the most-talented current RB in the NFL is correct. And it’s hard to dispute that point if you’ve seen even one (1) Breece Hall highlight, as he’s now two years removed from the ACL tear. Of course, Allen’s apparent firm hold on the No. 2 job and big August makes him an upside handcuff to target.
We got a lot of interesting stuff from the Commanders, as their first-team offense had a long and eventful drive. Jayden Daniels showed some bad touch on a screen, which is not insignificant in that it’s a reminder that’s not his game, and is a big reason why I’m out on Austin Ekeler, who needs to reverse last year’s efficiency decline but also probably can’t hit in the same ways he always has, i.e. receiving. Daniels’ next throw was a strong vertical route to the boundary to Dyami Brown for a long completion. He finished the drive with a rush TD on a zone read. Those two things are his game. If you’ve looked at the ranks, you know he’s a huge target.
Brian Robinson did look good, and is a high success rate runner that probably doesn’t add explosive-play upside, and then the receiving stuff is a question (on the team level). He’s going to be fine, and I’ve drafted him, but he’s a bit of a TRAP back in profile, and I don’t love the specific statistical upside.
We got a big green zone sequence on the first drive, with ultimately four RB touches inside the 10-yard line, which is more than Commanders’ backs had in any game all last year. Here’s the play-by-play.
Robinson had carried the ball several times on the drive, so Ekeler coming in at the 5-yard line seemed like just spelling him. Then Robinson came back on at the 2-yard line, and stayed on before a false start moved them back, at which point the team did substitute back to Ekeler for a specific look. After Ekeler gained 4 yards to the 3-yard line, he stayed on for the Daniels TD run. In a backfield where I’m already concerned about there being enough overall expected points for both backs, I’d argue this wasn’t great for either, as each got two green zone looks. That said, it was pretty clearly better for Robinson in my eyes, given he came on specifically for the very close goal-line work. Still, Ekeler getting some work between the 5- and 10-yard line, and specifically how he came on the second time after the false start, isn’t insignificant. I wouldn’t be too sure of learning anything here, but it was a pretty significant sequence too get all this on just one drive.
Signal: Braelon Allen — looked great, strong upside handcuff target
Bears 33, Bills 6
This was another game with a lot of intrigue, as both star QBs played.