Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC North
Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC North
Pass rates rising everywhere but Arthur Smith's new haunt
This series rolls on as we get to our fifth division. I wrote a long introduction to the value I see in this series as its own post, and a bit more intro stuff in Part 1 on the AFC South. As I detailed, in order to maximize the value add and time committed to writing this all up, my focus here will be on how I’m playing the different teams.
One key resource I’ll link to for each team is my March TPRR writeups, which cover the whole pass-catching group from last year. I’ll reference stuff from there from time to time, but not repeat huge concepts.
So far we’ve hit:
Stroud, Richardson, and another QB I’m on in the AFC South
The perfect setup for the Falcons and Zero RB targets in the NFC South
Broncos’ RB receiving, Chiefs’ passing game, and the AFC West
An emerging division with a ton of early-round WR targets in the NFC West
You can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Baltimore Ravens
Key Stat: Ravens — (-0.1%) PROE (previous three-year average: -5.2%)
The Ravens shifted their offense significantly under Todd Monken last year, after years under Greg Roman. The major issue became a strong defense that led to a very low expected pass rate of just 56%, which is to say that they were in a bunch of plus game scripts. The Ravens finished at a 55.9% pass rate, or essentially right at neutral, which was a solid bump from their 2020 and 2022 rates, although not near their epic 2021 season where play volume and pass attempts really skyrocketed. Projected to be a winning team by Vegas expectations again — although not to quite the same degree — my simple model gives them a 58.5% expected pass rate for 2024, which could be enough to help Lamar Jackson get over 500 pass attempts for the first time. But there’s still the element of whether it’s Lamar’s style that impacts pass volume — he does scramble at a high rate, and also takes sacks at an above average clip, which mean fewer dropbacks turning into attempts, and also running clocks instead of the stoppages that incompletions provide, which impacts play volume. In that 2021 season, the Ravens led the NFL with 1,185 total plays, and if we remove Lamar’s injury game, he averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game. That’s enough for him to pace for some real volume that season — around 584 attempts — but it’s worth noting that in the games he missed that year, the Ravens averaged even more pass attempts, and in Lamar’s next highest season for pass attempts per game — last year — his pace only reaches 486. As I’ve had the Lamar conversation with some other analysts, I’ve come to think of 550+ attempts as a number you’d love for Baltimore to hit this year, which does seem possible in this new offense, but my projections only get to 529. The main point of this paragraph would be to argue that the way Monken’s offensive changes and the expected defensive regression manifest probably won’t be as meaningful a spike in pass volume in much of the range of outcomes as the discussion tends to project, as far as what it means for the receiving weapons. I could be wrong on that; I also think there are team-level trends like this in a lot of places, and the data we have on Lamar the player is pretty meaningful, not to mention how Derrick Henry impacts these things.
One way I’ve tried to account for this possibility of increased passing is to have Lamar right with Jalen Hurts in virtually a dead heat for QB2. One minor note I will mention is Lamar’s designed run rate was a career-low 15% last year, and it had previously been over 22% all but one season under Roman. Offsetting that a little bit, his scramble rate was up a few points to a career-high 11.4%, and also it’s important to note that Lamar’s rushing profile is more or less 1 of 1, so there’s room to give here. While other mobile QBs might look good at 500 or 600 rush yards, Lamar’s a virtual lock for 800 if healthy, and if the passing side does take off, his profile is still very unique.
Henry’s big questions come down to that pass rate, and his RB rush attempt share. I don’t anticipate big receiving numbers, but Henry has aged gracefully, with missed tackle forced per touch and yards after contact per attempt numbers last year that look like Gus Edwards’ prime (not 2023 Gus, where he fell off). I mention Gus’ prime, because he was a fairly consistent 5.0 YPC kind of back as the downhill runner alongside Lamar’s threat to pull the ball around the edge, and Henry has fallen to YPCs under 4.5 the past three years, but as I noted, not due to his peripherals. Instead, the Tennessee offensive line has been an issue. Now in a favorable rushing situation that should elevate his efficiency, Henry has real potential to see a rebound in stats like his YPC. The question again comes down to how many rushes he gets, because he doesn’t figure to see a lot of receiving given Jackson’s profile, and the presence of guys like Justice Hill, who will likely take passing downs. My feeling on Henry is the overall rushing workload won’t quite be enough to justify his lofty ADP, and he’ll need to hit 15+ rushing TDs — I’m projecting him for a league-high 11.4, so I don’t think it’s crazy, but it’s also quite a step up from there — to beat value. My issue is even with the high TD rate, he’s probably not a truly dominant league-winner without much receiving, so you’re talking about a “small hit, big miss” profile, though certainly one with splash week upside for those formats where the playoffs are everything.
Expect Hill to be the secondary back early, but it’s probably Keaton Mitchell who has the long-term handcuff upside. Essentially, if something happens to Henry where he misses significant time, Mitchell — who is rehabbing an ACL tear from last year and isn’t expected ready for Week 1 — would be the best upside swing as far as which back might eventually be a really strong play late in the season (certainly depending on timeline, Hill would probably get first crack at it).
I wrote extensively in the TPRR post about Mark Andrews’ slightly different role in this offense, which did include a few more routes per game. While he remained very efficient, and is very obviously one of the top-five reality TEs, the lost air yards and the Ravens’ pass volume ranges are concerns for me. Frankly, the pass volume range has always been an issue for him; looking at Andrews from a points-per-game lens, he’s mostly a solid-if-unspectacular option, save for the 2021 season where things really did come together. That could happen again in 2024, but it’s important to know he ran 623 routes in that 2021 season, and his career high otherwise is just 434. He was pacing for just under 500 when he went down last year, and a bump to pass volume could get him over 500 fairly easily if he stays healthy — if you’re wondering about age, he’ll be 29 in September — but for me he’s more of a high floor play who doesn’t have the same paths to true league-winning ceiling outcomes that other Elite TEs do (hence my slightly lower ranking on him, which is mostly about being bullish on upside scenarios for the other options he slides behind).
I’m also somewhat concerned about Zay Flowers, but he’s a Year 2 guy who was probably part of why Andrews saw his TPRR fall and then Odell Beckham and his rotational-but-high-TPRR role is gone. So while Flowers’ aDOT wasn’t super high in Year 1, the WRs got more vertical in this spread-style passing game, and Flowers started to see more air yards down the stretch. Additionally, that Year 2 element, for a guy who was efficient as a rookie, matters. Because of stronger splash-play potential — necessary in lower volume offenses — Flowers has been my preferred target in the passing game to Andrews.
Rashod Bateman has also done pretty typical Bateman stuff this offseason, meaning he generated some offseason buzz and then got hurt. The team has said he’ll be back very soon, and the buzz has been somewhat noteworthy in that they seem to be buying a Year 4 breakout after three previous tries have failed. I’ll cop to not being totally out.
The other WR to know is rookie Devontez Walker, but it sounds like he’s a little buried at the moment and might be more of an in-season watch list guy. Nelson Agholor will likely play early in three-WR sets, but he’s a roster-clogger type. Expect Isaiah Likely to get some reps in two-TE sets as well, as he’s been the talk of Ravens’ camp, too. But keep in mind with Likely that while he ran hot with TDs last in the year, his data is a reason I’m somewhat concerned about Andrews; Likely also saw a pretty huge dip in TPRR from his rookie year, falling from 20.9% in 2022 all the way down to 13.0% last year. To me, while it used to be justifiable to target him as an Andrews’ handcuff, and he paid off that idea last year, he’s no longer much better of a play than several other No. 2 TEs, given the offense no longer seems to prioritize the position to the same degree. The team’s overall TE target share, 22.3%, wasn’t bad, but for the Ravens it was a five-year low, well below the previous low of 27.1%. Keep in mind that more pass attempts could definitely help the share stats.
Signal: Lamar Jackson — rising pass rate should help him round out a scoring profile that features more projected rushing yards than basically any other QB, most every year; Derrick Henry — peripherals still strong in recent years, likely still an efficient runner in this offense, but a bit of a TRAP profile and will need huge TD numbers; Mark Andrews — significant slot rate, aDOT, TPRR changes in new offense, but still a very efficient and dynamic TE (I have him as a high floor pick where I worry about the ceiling); Zay Flowers — a more aggressive way to play the pass rate upside given his Year 2 profile and increase in air yards down the stretch (plus the high air yard role OBJ vacated)
Noise: Ravens — talk of Todd Monken’s offense and defensive regression significantly increasing pass volume (it should increase, but there’s a huge range of outcomes where that spike isn’t as meaningful as the discussion tends to project)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Stat: Ja’Marr Chase — 23.5% TPRR, 9.1 aDOT, 0.57 wTPRR in 2023 (and 24.5%/9.9/0.61 in 2022; all somewhat pedestrian relative to the other top-five WRs)