Offseason Stealing Signals, Vikings & Bengals
Two of the best WRs in the game anchor these McVay tree offenses
I don’t know when I’ll get this published, but I’m writing this intro Saturday morning after watching that U.S. Men’s National Team opener at the World Cup. And what a joy that was.
I’m not some huge soccer fan, but I’ve followed the sport in some capacity for decades now. I’d heard stories about the 1994 team as a kid, and would’ve been in middle school when the women’s team won in 1999 on home soil, with Brandi Chastain famously scoring the winning goal in the penalty shootout. I was in high school in 2002 when the USMNT made the run to the quarterfinals. Landon Donovan was the first of several “best U.S. player ever” tags I was sure would bring us to new heights. That never fully materialized, but I went bonkers for his goal in stoppage time in 2010 to advance to the knockout stage. By then, I was pretty obsessed with FIFA the game, and around that time I lived with a former college soccer player who would go on to coach the sport. We’d watch big European matches on weekends.
Anyway, the sense of pride for these teams, and players, has been real for decades. Some think Donovan, and Clint Dempsey after him, never lived up to the considerable promise; I just loved watching those guys, but I also loved dreaming on Freddy Adu. I was devastated when Oguchi Onyewu wasn’t really healthy enough for 2010; he could’ve been the best defender we ever produced, but after being a mainstay at the 2006 World Cup at age 24, he was only able to play in the first two games before missing the final two in 2010 as he was coming back from a ruptured patellar tendon during qualifying the year earlier. As fate would have it, he wouldn’t play in a World Cup again.
The nature of these things being every four years makes it so a player like that, who is young at age 24 in one World Cup, will only play in one tournament in his prime at 28 and then he’s maybe over the hill at 32 the next time. I’ve often thought about what the optimal age would be when a World Cup rolls around, and I think you want to be offset from Onyewu, probably. For non-elite players, 24 can be too young and 32 too old, and you’d probably prefer tournaments at 25 or 26 and then 29 or 30 to both be in your prime. I would think for more elite talents, it’s a similar track, where they can probably contribute at 21 or 22, then eventually might play in their fourth tournament at 33 or 34. (If you’re Messi, you make your debut at 19, then turn 39 during your sixth tournament here in 2026.)
But a lot of players are only in their prime for a couple tournaments, and you can’t have a whole roster of players all at peak performance at the same time. At any given moment, you have some aging, some too young to be ready, and there’s this balance. Probably at some point in the four years prior to or after a given tournament, your team is in better position, but that doesn’t matter. You get your one moment in an eight-year span.
And you only get three matches guaranteed. In 2006, after the run in 2002, we were in the same group as eventual champions Italy, and earned a draw against them, but we still failed to get out of the group after three matches, and then that’s just it for many of the players who were part of the 2002 team that hoped 2006 could build on it. Similarly, the new Donovan or Dempsey has been Christian Pulisic for years, but he missed his chance to make a debut at 19 and be our discount Messi who got five or six career tournaments, because the U.S. outright failed to qualify that year.
Soccer is a tough sport; people complain about it being low-scoring, but the weight of every scoring chance is massive. There are no certainties; underdogs thus can have that one moment of brilliance, and through some combination of defending well enough or just luck that their betters can’t finish, upsets can always happen. Some skeptics laugh at the idea the U.S. will ever make a deep run at one of these tournaments; I’ve seen enough surprise runs in soccer tournaments — and think about variance and probabilities enough — that I completely reject that certainty.
But the better you are, and the better you play, the better your chances are going to be that the things break your way. And things can still break against you! You may need to overcome that. There’s a nature of uncertainty that makes it so compelling, and then when you add in the intermittent nature of this tournament, there’s just so much of it that is frankly up to chance.
People talk about U.S. soccer like it’s absurd we’re still waiting on something, and yet everything is defined by World Cup results, and there have been just seven World Cups since that 1994 team got out of the group stage on home soil and revitalized soccer in the U.S. in a way that led to the MLS becoming a thing. And the MLS is a thing, and much like the USMNT is clearly still growing, after decades of being a mockery to many. These things take time, and in that time the sentiment is often far more skeptical than is fair. If you can’t see an upward trajectory, while acknowledging the variance inherent in the sport, that’s a you issue. (Take Italy, who won that 2006 World Cup then failed to get out of the group stage in 2010 and 2014… then failed to qualify entirely for three straight tournaments in 2018, 2022, and 2026! In the history of the World Cup, just eight nations have ever won the thing, and Italy has four titles, one shy of Brazil with the most at five. A string of results like Italy’s over the past 20 years probably suggests some real issues, but it also highlights that even soccer nations far more established than the U.S. can run on hard times.)
Anyway, the history of the U.S. at the World Cup is that we didn’t qualify for a single tournament from 1950 through 1990, and at the 1990 tournament we lost all three group stage matches, conceding 8 goals and scoring just 2, both of which came in second halves of matches where we were already down multiple goals. So when the 1994 team advanced to the knockout round, that was an upstart soccer nation doing something unexpected. 1998 went like 1990, with three losses and an exit without so much as a point in group play, so the 2002 quarterfinals run — which remains our best result — was a nation ahead of schedule. Our Round of 16 win came over rival Mexico, “dos a cero.”
You can understand why some observers are disappointed that we haven’t had other knockout stage runs since then, but when you sit back and look at it, it’s extremely understandable, and you can also see the growth. We had the tough group result in 2006. In 2010, we got the good fortunate in stoppage time of the final group match to advance, but lost in the first knockout match in extra time to Ghana. I know I felt like we should’ve done more there, at the time, but our group result argued we maybe weren’t ready.
The 2014 tournament was the one that featured the more devastating first-round knockout loss; we got out of the group stage comfortably that year, but so did a lot of big names. That was a stacked tournament without a lot of Cinderella results; multiple second-tier soccer nations were in golden eras, plus the real powers played well. We were matched up with a Belgian team that had high hopes, and it would’ve been a tough road even if we’d advanced, but what we had at that tournament was a goalkeeper in his prime, and Tim Howard absolutely stood on his head, setting a World Cup record with 16 saves and keeping things 0-0 through 90 minutes before the dam broke in extra time. Howard deserved a 1-0 win there, but that era of U.S. soccer was frequently defined by not having enough goal-scoring upside at the striker position.
And unfortunately, 2018 was the huge disappointment where we failed to qualify for the tournament entirely, which also made that Belgium match Howard’s final World Cup moment, as he was already in his thirties in 2014. The 2018 debacle can be and should be rightfully criticized, but a fair accounting does acknowledge a high degree of the flukiness inherent in soccer competitions that I’ve been mentioning (it required not just our fluky loss on the final match day, but two other upset results in matches being played at the same time, and in both cases the teams came from behind in those matches; Wikipedia says of 27 possible win-loss-tie outcome patterns across the three matches, only one would have eliminated the U.S., and it was that outcome that occurred, with wins from underdogs in all three).
Though we’d struggled earlier in qualifying to even be in that spot, and there were some transitional elements to that era of our roster (Dempsey would’ve been 35 at that World Cup, Howard would’ve been pushing 40, and Pulisic would’ve been 19), Jozy Altidore was a striker in his prime as probably the best U.S. option there in years, and that group had won the Gold Cup in July, 2017 before failing to qualify for the World Cup three months later.
Anyway, just one tournament has passed since then, in Qatar in 2022. The group stage was tricky, with two draws leading to a showdown with Iran where Iran just needed to draw to advance, since they’d beaten Wales and we had not. That’s one of those group stage quirks that can get messy, but the U.S. did come through with the 1-0 win against a team hoping to “park the bus” and keep it 0-0. Pulisic scored the winner.
Then we matched up with Holland in the next round, and would lose 3-1. They’d go on to lose to eventual winners Argentina in penalty kicks after a 2-2 scoreline through extra time, in the quarterfinals. A bit like the Belgium match in 2014, you’re eventually going to be in a knockout round match with a good team.
I’m not real sure why I wrote all that, other than to contextualize what we just saw Friday night. Like I said, I’m not actually a huge fan, and I don’t actually know every current storyline; usually I get caught up during the major tournaments, to be honest. But this is the tournament where Pulisic is in his prime at 27, and there’s that anxiety that it won’t show up in the limited chances he’ll actually get, but he completely rejected that notion in one half, setting up two goals and creating so many more chances. That was the promise we’ve been sold not just since he was a teenager, but since Donovan was, and Dempsey after him — and no disrespect to those two and what they became, but Pulisic looked undeniable last night.
But what was so cool about last night was it wasn’t just him, and how so many guys looked like the best versions of themselves. Other than Pulisic, the player I was most excited to watch was Folarin Balogun, a 24-year-old striker who I thought looked awesome in the build-up to the tournament. This generation has still been searching for a striker; Balogun announced loudly there’s no more search. What he did last night was the best finishing from a U.S. striker I can remember.
I didn’t know a lot about 24-year-old Malik Tillman or 21-year-old Alex Freeman before yesterday, but they brought that youthful upside you’re always hoping will surprise you on any team you root for, in any sport. I know Sergino Dest as a right back, but he was another supporting the attack last night; it was insanely fun to watch that version of him. I’ve always been a little skeptical of Weston McKennie, relative to considerable hype, but you saw the flair from him, and his more deliberate tempo that I’ve never loved seemed to fit so much better when surrounded by the youthful aggressiveness of the other three names in this paragraph. It wasn’t just Balogun finishing, or Pulisic needing to set things up; it felt like there were a dozen other ways we could find a goal at some point. That the maligned Gio Reyna subbed on and capped a fantastic, slow build-up with a phenomenal outside-foot strike for the final exclamation-point goal at the end was just icing on the cake.
I’m freakin’ hyped, guys. Antonee Robinson is one of my favorites, and he looked awesome as a defender who gets forward and has some real flash to his game. Tyler Adams is that defending midfielder you can really depend on. Tim Ream and Chris Richards and goalkeeper Matt Freese all did well enough in defense, though the weren’t totally challenged, and if you’re nervous about something looking forward, certainly the back end would be it.
But again, everyone looked like the best versions of themselves, and that gets to managerial stuff I haven’t mentioned, but when you look at guys like Dest in a different role and thriving, and how it seemed like we had some stuff in our bag that our opponent wasn’t prepared for — I don’t know all the Xs and Os, but if Pochettino is a real asset as a manager at this tournament, as opposed to some of our recent managers feeling more like liabilities, that would obviously be incredible. And you have to feel like the early returns suggest that’s going to be the case, when everyone is prepared and playing frankly above what your expectations were for them.
This will probably be the high point, because as I detailed, things happen in these tournaments. The World Cup expanded this year to 48 teams, which means the groups are a little weaker, and then the knockout round is actually twice as large. We’re in great position to advance already, but if we do, it’ll take two knockout round wins to reach the quarterfinal. If we win our group, and other favorites win theirs, we figure to draw Belgium in the Round of 16 again, and then even if we get through them, it would be tournament favorites Spain in the quarterfinal.
I’m going to enjoy the next two group stage matches, and then we’ll see. The big lesson from the past 30 years of U.S. results at World Cups is frankly how quickly it ends. That’s also true if you’re paying attention to other nations with even better rosters trying to break through and win their first World Cup. When it’s over, you’re likely to hear about how they didn’t do enough. The conversation on the shows is always about, “What constitutes a successful tournament?” as if getting to some specific point in the bracket is all that matters, ignoring the inherent variance in it all, and how the draw can make some groups tougher than others, or some Round of 16 matches tougher than others in a quarterfinal.
I guess what I’m saying is to me, what constitutes a successful tournament is what we saw last night in the opener. That was a hungry team, playing at the highest level they can play at, and now we get to dream on what that can mean. And that’s what’s so fun about it for me, as someone who doesn’t know all the nuance of it. Hope in an underdog breaking through is the pinnacle of fandom.
I didn’t mean to write 2,500 words on the USMNT, but so it goes. For the football writeups today, the Bengals and Vikings have elite WRs that are nobody’s underdog. How their offenses revolve around them will be different in both cities, and it’s frankly more known in Cincinnati as we try to parse a likely QB change in Minnesota.
As I work through these projections, I’m reminded of little heuristics, and the one for today is how you should always project volume splits on offenses with truly elite talents like these by starting with the elite player and then working down. “The superstars get theirs,” is the focus, and then everyone else exists beyond that.
So far, we’ve covered:
Cowboys and Saints, plus a longer intro into the series
Let’s keep it moving.
Minnesota Vikings
Key Stat: Justin Jefferson — 1.88 YPRR, 7.5 YPT (previous career lows — 2.50, 9.9)
Relevant Signals Quote: “I think there’s roughly no chance J.J. McCarthy plays meaningful snaps this year. He was just too bad. You lose a locker room playing a guy like that over multiple years. After five straight seasons of 2.5+ YPRRs, Justin Jefferson posted a 1.88 on 556 routes in 2025, and I basically chalk none of that up to Jefferson himself. His TPRR was 25.2%, right in line with career numbers, but his YPT fell to 7.5 after never falling below 9.9 in any other season. His YAC per reception was actually a career high — he did more with the ball in his hand than ever. His QB play just stunk out loud. Jefferson has been vocal about wanting to put up some of the greatest numbers ever for a WR, and will become an A.J. Brown-level issue very quickly if the Vikings don’t prioritize him over McCarthy, which they absolutely should and I think absolutely will.” (Field Tippers)
Vikings Field Tippers pass-catcher analysis
As the above quote notes, Justin Jefferson’s down 2025 was not about his target rate or his ball-in-hand stuff, and was thus about his ability to turn air yards into receptions. Before-the-catch-point efficiency can sometimes be about hands or stuff like contested catch ability, but in sweeping shifts you’re often seeing a measure of QB play and target quality. And yeah, that’s the deal here. I’m not going to spend a bunch of words debating the QB battle; I think if this doesn’t go the one way it seems like it can go, you have bigger problems.
The real question for me in this projection is how Kyler Murray fits. Prior to last season, a note on Kevin O’Connell was how his offenses tended to always have solid PROEs, as he tended to understand the value of not getting too run heavy and developing pass concepts to keep the offense multiple and thus functional. This was true even when Kirk Cousins was hurt and KOC had a rotating cast of backup QBs in 2023, but then also with Cousins in 2022 and with Sam Darnold in 2024. Last year, Minnesota’s PROE still stayed slightly above average, even with really poor QB play. And by the way KOC’s a good coach; there should really be no debate about that. They overperformed going 13-4 in 2022, stumbled to 7-10 after a 6-4 start the year Cousins tore his Achilles, went 14-3 with Darnold in 2024, and then — in perhaps KOC’s greatest feat as a coach — they went 9-8 last year, including 6-4 in the 10 games McCarthy started.
Meanwhile, Kyler’s Arizona teams were usually middle of the pack in pace, but lower in play volume as his mobility kept clocks running. After Kyler’s five games last year, Arizona sped up and their PROE elevated under Jacoby Brissett. I do think Kyler might be a slight drain on play volume, but good teams run more plays, and the key for Kyler, to me, is he’s pretty clearly in the best situation he’s ever been in. I projected them for a slightly above-average PROE and play volume total, because I still think playing QB for Minnesota is a big boost, despite the 2025 results, both because of the weapons and the coach. There are concerns in Kyler’s profile, and he’s not a perfect QB, but there are some upside elements not just in his mobility but also as a passer. For example, over the years his aDOT has fallen as he’s taken more checkdowns, but his completion percentages have been really good, as you’d hope with that type of shift. He’s had some poor YPAs at times with the low depth of throw, but his PACR (passing air yards conversion rate) has tended to be pretty OK at his depth of target. ultimately landed on a very mid-level PROE and play volume. Last year, his numbers weren’t great in a small sample, but he did have a meaningfully better EPA/play than Brissett. He missed time in 2022 and 2023, as well, and I don’t know what this says but 2024 was his only recent full season and his passing efficiency that year was very good, with four-year highs in completion percentage, YPA, and TD rate (had solid EPA and CPOE numbers that year, as well). Like I said, I’m not sure how much weight to put on that, but it’s at least somewhat notable that some of the more concerning years are smaller samples or include games played at less than 100%. As for the declining aDOT stuff, working in a new system with new downfield WRs, including a guy like Jefferson, could be an answer for that. Ultimately, where I land is Kyler has always had a fantasy-friendly QB profile, and I think it’s a very fantasy-friendly offensive situation, so I’d frankly need to be pretty sure he’s bad and set up to fail to not want to buy into the inherent upside in his wide range of outcomes. I’m not. He’s one of my favorite QB plays in 2026.