Preseason Stealing Signals, Week 2
The Signal and Noise for all 32 teams after Pre-Week 2
I’m so excited for this week. Getting through the Offseason Stealing Signals series late last week, and getting those detailed writeups of all 32 teams out, is always a labor of love, and a checklist thing that’s both very necessary for me — it helps me test my own opinions — and also something I want to be done with as I work through it.
This is rankings week. I’m hyped. I’m going to be working through my tiers for all four positions. People have asked for an overall top 75 like I did last year, where I blended the positional tiers, and I’ll get to that probably Friday, as well. We don’t have much coming in Preseason Week 3 next week — most relevant players will sit — and I remember from back in the day when I worked at CBS that about 80% of drafts on their platform came in the final two weeks. I know some of you guys have drafted, but with the season set to kick off two weeks from this coming Thursday, I know a lot more of you are doing so this coming weekend, and then Labor Day weekend, the last before the season.
For those of you who are newer around here, a brief recap of what I’d consider the tentpole content this year:
2024 home league strategy guide (probably helpful to read through the links that hit on past evergreen concepts)
Strategy for Auction, Standard scoring, Superflex, Two-WR (Flex 9)
Why we’re going to get late-round RB production (and early-round WR depth is more important than ever)
If you have a little more time, here are team by team breakdowns of everything about every player and every trend
Offseason Stealing Signals series (the NFC East link contains links to the other seven divisions)
WR profile reviews (from March, did two divisions at a time, AFC West + AFC South link contains links to the other three pieces/six divisions)
And lastly a couple other fun ones, which are among my favorite work this year:
More macro stuff from February, including the difference between Mahomes’ and Purdy’s stats last year
Stats, variance, and not always trusting the numbers (also from February)
Breaking down the top WR prospects (pre-draft look at the top 10, profile-wise)
There are two weeks until Week 1! The excitement couldn’t be higher. The long offseason of thinking through how things might evolve has reached the exact point we talk about when we refer to “how things might look in August.” We’re there. We’re being hammered with new information. We have to be willing to update our priors constantly. We have to understand the bets we were making, and how they are evolving.
Now is the time to make bold declarations and strong claims. I would argue if you haven’t seen the information on certain players, considered what the bet needed at it’s old price, and concluded that the price is now multiple rounds wrong, then you probably aren’t thinking dynamically enough about what each profile is and how to play it. You can’t be anchored to what you believed all offseason. Now is when we have essentially all the information we will get before Week 1, and so much of that has come in just in the past couple weeks. Uncertainty has been cleared up, especially for young players.
Does that mean they will all hit? Absolutely not. No way. It’s not a certainty that August trends will carry into the season. I’m constantly talking about how trying too hard to predict Week 1 usage is probably one of the biggest leaks in the industry, because of how things evolve in-season.
But we’ve gotten so, so much information on the bets we want to make. I’ve been telling people to draft a ton of Xavier Worthy and this dude is going to play with the first team out of the gate. There has been specific reporting that the WR coach “has optimism… in terms of bringing him along faster than Rashee Rice in his rookie timeline,” which fits with the preseason usage. I feel fantastic about that bet.
Shoutout Siegele on this one who crystallized this for me in about May when I was concerned about Worthy getting the early playing time for Andy Reid by framing it as, “What if you’re wrong about that?” It’s funny how certain framing can snap things into place sometimes, and that helped me understand quickly how exciting the play could be at cost. Now we’re not sure that he’ll definitely be an every-snap player out of the gate, but it sure looks like that question isn’t even even a “what if” anymore (but his price is cheaper now on some sites than it was in May, which couldn’t be more wrong, and in home leagues you can get him rounds later than that).
Javonte Williams’ price was held down by early reporting that he might not be the starter, and even one rogue report he could get cut. Every single report for weeks has placed him atop a depth chart I’ve written could not only lead the league in RB targets again, but might go from the 153 they had atop the NFL last year to 200+. I’m obviously in.
Last week, we had to pump the brakes on Kimani Vidal, because he didn’t play in Preseason Week 1, and there was a 53-man roster projection that left him off. It was smart to be cautious, because Jim Harbaugh hasn’t given us a lot to work with this offseason, and rookies aren’t just handed starting usage; they have to earn it. But after a strong showing in Preseason Week 2, Vidal is now on the 53-man for that same reporter (who’d even acknowledged that initially leaving him off was a bit of a surprise, because he didn’t have great info).
Making the roster doesn’t seem to be an issue anymore, and Vidal showed out really well. As a bet, he’s an antifragile late-round play on a good profile that might be a small-school Day 3 draft gem, with a depth chart that has fragility at the top. Looking great in the preseason, and seemingly securing a spot to try to work his way up, solidifies that bet meaningfully. It gives him that opportunity, to be positioned to benefit from the uncertainty here. As I’ll write below, I’m not concerned that he worked behind Jaret Patterson; that should have been expected given Patterson’s veteran status and the positivity around him at camp.
In my opinion, all of these guys are mispriced by multiple rounds, at least in some places. There are also bets I think are overpriced by multiple rounds, because I don’t know that the payoff is worth the opportunity cost of where they go. All of this depends a bit on if you’re in home leagues or high stakes, but it’s going to be a fun week talking through all the specific rankings.
To kick that off, we’re going to recap everything I saw in Preseason Week 2. If you read last week’s, you’ll know the drill.
Because I took a little time off this past weekend after writing roughly 19 million words last week to push through the Offseason Stealing Signals series, I’m getting caught up on all this in real time. Instead of taking notes as I watch and then writing it all up later, this week is me writing up each game as go through, and updating the ranks in real time as well, which I did some Sunday, a lot of the day Monday, and into Tuesday morning. I’ve noted all changes where applicable.
Eagles 14, Patriots 13
I wrote through Drake Maye Friday, as a reaction to his play in this game. Maye looked strong, and Jacoby Brissett continued to struggle, which was plain enough to see that head coach Jerod Mayo made a point of saying after the game that the QB competition was still open. I’m not sure that means Maye will start Week 1, but Maye supporters have been pointing out for a while now that a tough early schedule means it’s unlikely Brissett will look great even if he does start, and the Patriots face the possibility of opening with a losing record after this slate: at CIN, vs. SEA, at NYJ, at SF, vs. MIA, vs. HOU. In Week 7, they have a London game against Jacksonville, and they return home Week 8. At this point, I’d be shocked if Maye isn’t starting by then.
As far as actual notes from this game I noted Brissett missed some other throws than the pick in the end zone, and only moved the ball on the ground. Maye by comparison showed his mobility, including on a rush TD, and while he didn’t look amazing, he was solid and threw a couple very good deep balls.
Rhamondre Stevenson continues to start and be the clear lead. I’m getting more and more into him, though he’s in a range with a lot of solid RB targets, and I worry about his ultimate TD upside.
Tyquan Thornton getting starting reps has added to the NE logjam. I wrote more about this in Offseason Stealing Signals, since I got the AFC East published after this game.
For the Eagles, we saw no Jalen Hurts or main starters. Kenneth Gainwell got the start at RB again.
Signal: Drake Maye — looked poised for his age, showed the full skill set (mobility plus deep passing), and benefits from Jacoby Brissett looking like a nonviable bridge QB this preseason (Maye is a nice late-round QB target)
Ravens 13, Falcons 12
Owen Wright started at RB for the Ravens again, who are mostly not playing starters this preseason. Rasheen Ali has been talked about as a depth RB for Baltimore but I’d be fairly confident in a Derrick Henry-Justice Hill tandem early, with Keaton Mitchell eventually being the third piece. In other words, Mitchell’s value as a long-term stash is improving.
It was Josh Johnson at QB for the Ravens and Taylor Heinicke for the Falcons, who didn’t play Michael Penix even with Kirk Cousins also out.
Bears 27, Bengals 3
There was a lot of hype around Caleb Williams in this one, but it’s worth noting this game started slow, with the Bears going three-and-out on three straight drives in the first quarter. The Bengals went with third-stringers in this one, with Trayveon Williams getting the start at RB, and both of their top two QBs also sitting, and they didn’t get much established offensively, either, which gave Chicago more chances.
Caleb did play well overall, and I’m still very into him, but I’m clarifying I didn’t feel the need to push him higher in the ranks, which my perception catching some of the social media commentary was maybe I’d need to because he was lights out. He wasn’t terrible on the first three three-and-outs, completing a couple underneath throws short of the sticks that didn’t lead to anything. On the fourth drive, the Bears got their initial first down on an end around to Rome Odunze, and then Caleb threw what looked like a perfect deep ball to Tyler Scott, but the defender just yanked him back for an obvious DPI so we didn’t get to see the catch on the other end. He took a sack after that, and that drive ended with a FG. On the next drive, we saw a floated off-platform throw nearly go for an INT, and then the extended play downfield hookup with Odunze for 45 yards where he threw a dot while moving to his left, which was the highlight that got everyone psyched. The next snap, he extended again, and found Odunze with a bullet to the back corner of the end zone, but Odunze had stepped out on the long rep so it went incomplete even though it was another high-level play from Caleb. After a throwaway, he capped that drive with a rushing TD on yet another extended play, something I wrote might just be part of his skill set. That was it for the Bears’ first half, and ultimately his playing time. Overall was good, with flashes of the great, but also some stuff to work out.
Not to be lost in that blurb is Odunze looks good, and he and Caleb have a nice connection. If you’re into Odunze, it’s somewhat fortunate he stepped out and didn’t notch a receiving TD to cap that drive. Sure, that also speaks to a small error on Odunze’s part, but I’ll also note a small positive on that rep in that he lost his defender on the extended play and made himself available for Caleb to throw to.
Khalil Herbert got most of the RB work again, and he is just a good runner. That’s been known, but it remains true. There was some fan fiction that he might land in Dallas this offseason, and I’m only bringing that up because if that did happen, he’d be like an eighth-round pick at least, and I’d want exposure to him. I guess what I’m saying is he’s a good pick late, and I just turned him into a “target” while writing this. Whether he’s with the Bears or they’ve been giving him so much preseason run to try him out for some other team, he’s a good football player that is a very cheap antifragile bet that he could benefit if something opened up more work for him than we can currently see.
One thing I have to address is this Keenan Allen weight stuff. It was only four days ago I wrote about Allen’s background as a long-term target-earner for why I thought D.J. Moore was being overdrafted. Because that was my prior, I’m still taking some Allen in some best ball stuff because he’s started to slip, and I think it’s possible this winds up being a totally comical August storyline in hindsight. One of the things I saw that I don’t remember the source and can’t corroborate was he hasn’t played in the preseason since like 2018, and I’m only noting that because even if it’s not right (seems right!), conceptually it’s a reminder to not really care about preseason routes for a 32-year-old WR. This dude’s a long-time pro who has shown an ability to be consistent year in and year out. And yet, I’m not completely ignoring it, because this is a probabilistic situation where I’ve made a case against Moore largely because of who Allen is, and that Moore hasn’t ever had a target-earner like him to contend for looks with. If there’s even some possibility Allen is a compromised version of himself this year, it changes the bets quite a bit. Suddenly Allen looks likely to be the disappointment, even as the cheaper option. I’ve written about how I love all three of these top WRs. To be right on Allen, we need him to elevate above other talented guys. To be wrong on Moore, part of the case is he won’t have a clean path to earning big volume, because of the other talent. Even a very slight concern here changes these bets for me. I’ve moved Moore back up a little, and I’m likely to get some exposure before Week 1, because I was already worried I was too confident relative to the market, as I talked through. I’ve moved Allen down as well, and I’ve removed the “target” label from him for now. He’s still totally draftable, but I’ve moved Odunze up into his tier, and I’m viewing Odunze as a clearer target at this point (cheaper price point).
I had to move Cole Kmet down another tier because it just seems clear his routes will be trouble early in the year. I do think there are paths to him being a meaningful fantasy asset this year, but I also don’t want anyone using the ranks to be drafting him, so I guess my confidence level isn’t very high.
Signal: Khalil Herbert — looks sharp again, past data suggests he’s a strong RB, solid late-round antifragile bet that he would be good if work somehow opened up; Rome Odunze — couple nice preseason plays, seems to have a connection with Caleb
Noise: Caleb Williams — suggestions he had a great game, as he definitely showed flashes but does also have some learning curve stuff to sort out; Keenan Allen — weight stuff, except even as I’m calling it Noise I also suggested it changes the bets here at least a little, relative to where I was previously on things
Texans 28, Giants 10
Daniel Jones’ first throw of the preseason was a curl to Malik Nabers where cornerback Derek Stingley broke hard and Jones hit the defender in the chest, which wasn’t great. Later, he threw a bad pick-six from out of his own end zone, trying to avoid a safety, and then another interception on an underthrown ball near the end zone. He did hit Nabers for four completions and 54 yards in their half together, and showed off some mobility with a 12-yard scramble, which is good to see as he recovers from an ACL. He also hit Darius Slayton on a 44-yard gain down the sideline to set up a short TD run, and his final two drives were clearly his best. There were obvious issues, and I’ve moved Jones down a touch and taken the “target” label off him as I think he might have some early-season struggles and be more of a waiver wire play in-season. But this was also his first work in live game action for a while, and he always teeters on the edge between mediocre and unplayable, so it’s not all that surprising he looked like the latter here. Amid a tough showing, I was more encouraged than discouraged, particularly given Nabers still had the 4 receptions and also took a carry for 5 yards. From that telegraphed curl route on the first snap, it was clear the passing offense will flow through him.
Rookie Theo Johnson was out there with the first team, and got a screen pass on the game’s second play, but Daniel Bellinger was also involved over the first half. It’s not clear how these routes will split but you’d want to see one guy consolidate and that didn’t appear to happen here. Similar goes for Slayton and Jalin Hyatt in the second outside WR role, while Wan’Dale Robinson does appear to have the slot job locked down.
Devin Singletary played a lot as well, and he did a few flashy things like Singletary tends to. He also got back-to-back carries from the 1-yard line after the long completion to Slayton, and it was great to see they went back to him after getting stuffed on first down. He’ll both be plenty good enough to play a lot, and also be held back by the offense if it struggles.
C.J. Stroud completed his first handful of passes or so, looking in complete command of everything. The drive wound up stalling out, but a little red zone inefficiency wasn’t a major concern to me. His second drive started at his own 1-yard line, and they went shotgun, five-wide, giving him full faith to make a read from the end zone on a five-man protection. His first read wasn’t open, but he calmly picked out Dalton Schultz over the middle for 25 or so yards. The next play, a play-action shot to Tank Dell for 23 yards, but holding negated it. They ran the ball on first-and-20, then Stroud hit Schultz underneath on the final play of the quarter, and the Texans sat him down for the third-and-long to kick off the second. My takeaway was the same its been all offseason: The Texans are going to be so fucking good. There’s nothing new or surprising here. I’ve stanned for Stefon Diggs in relation to the younger guys, but that’s not the main take, it’s just a “don’t forget Diggs” thing. I’m not sure if I’ve mentioned this, but I love their playoff schedule (home vs. MIA, at KC, then home vs. BAL, so two dome games against good teams, and the one road shootout with Mahomes). Draft Texans. That’s the take. Any of the early WRs or Stroud, mainly. These aren’t complex defenses in the preseason, but Stroud’s command and comfort level, clearly understanding everything he’s seeing, is very clear.
Dameon Pierce continues to look too poor to be the main backup, and observers have already begun anointing Cam Akers, who has at least shown a little burst. That’s where we’re at with Pierce — a guy coming back from an Achilles last year, and two Achilles’ tears in a few years’ time, looks more explosive.
Signal: Texans’ passing game — is going to be very good, because C.J. Stroud is plainly very good; Malik Nabers — passing offense clearly flows through him; Devin Singletary — back-to-back carries from the 1-yard line, scored on the second (played a lot, looks like clear lead back and will play in all facets)
Noise: Daniel Jones — given his skill level, not all that surprising he looked poor at times in his first game action after the ACL rehab (I’m concerned, but I’m not writing off the Giants’ whole season just yet)