Offseason Stealing Signals, AFC East
Dalton Kincaid, Dolphins and Jets superstars, and more Drake Maye
Your fellow subscriber Sam passed along a creative fix to a problem that many of you have had — translating the cheat sheet rankings into a .csv (the reason I don’t is I wouldn’t keep the .csv updated as well). His fix? A clever use of AI. Here’s the prompt he wrote for Claude or ChatGPT:
can you turn this text into a csv? can you separate these into numerical tiers? Where you see space but no "Big Tier Break" or Transition Tier Above, you can do 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 etc. So for Josh Allen he's a Quarterback, and tier 1.1, whereas the next options before the next space are 1.2, 1.3 and so on. Can you write this to a csv file I can download?
So if you want the rankings in a different form before your draft, copy them over with this note, and then the .csv file will allow you to open in a spreadsheet.
I wrote a long introduction to the value I see in this series as its own post, and a bit more intro stuff in Part 1 on the AFC South. As I detailed, in order to maximize the value add and time committed to writing this all up, my focus here will be on how I’m playing the different teams.
One key resource I’ll link to for each team is my March TPRR writeups, which cover the whole pass-catching group from last year. I’ll reference stuff from there from time to time, but not repeat huge concepts.
So far we’ve hit:
Stroud, Richardson, and another QB I’m on in the AFC South
The perfect setup for the Falcons and Zero RB targets in the NFC South
Broncos’ RB receiving, Chiefs’ passing game, and the AFC West
An emerging division with a ton of early-round WR targets in the NFC West
Three pass rate boosts and then that other team in the AFC North
Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, and four exciting offenses in the NFC North
You can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Buffalo Bills
Key Stat: Dalton Kincaid — Weeks 1-10 aDOT: 4.2; Weeks 11-playoffs: 9.4
The Bills had a 2023 season that was a tale of two halves, and the analysis on what to take from that has been all over the map, furthering the idea that splits data can be a real headache sometimes, and often can lead to bad conclusions. This isn’t to say that I have some clear answers, because I don’t, and it’s relevant that the change came when Buffalo was 5-5 and in desperation mode, so some of what they did down the stretch could be viewed differently when considering a full offseason and an 0-0 start Week 1. And yet, there are a few key data points I do want to lean on, where the latter split feels more relevant. The first has been widely discussed — the offense slowed down, and then in the offseason, the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, plus the Ray Davis draft pick, all seemed to support the logic (pointed out by Pat Thorman in his great 2024 Pace Preview at ETR).
One of the really fascinating data points relates to Josh Allen, who posted his first double-digit rushing TD season with 15, then had three more in two playoff games to bring his tally to 18 in 19 games. In the first 10 games under Ken Dorsey, Allen had just 7 (0.7 per game), but in the final 9 under Brady, he had 11 (1.2). One point to be made here is the one about the Bills being in desperation mode, but then this is a worse roster in 2024, and there are some expecting them to fall off a little bit. Allen’s passing weapons are weaker this year, and there’s probably some risk of ruin in selecting him as the QB1 if the Bills’ whole offense does fall apart, but outside that, the answer to how the Bills work in 2024 is pretty clearly that Allen plays like an MVP. That could include an ungodly number of rushing TDs. I’m willing to take on a little risk here; he’s my clear QB1.
When you look through this roster, the two players who feel like they have a clear target role are a RB and a TE. James Cook should be the lead back again, and it helps that he has a real air yards role — he had 76 as a rookie and 112 last year, so his aDOTs are in the 2.0 range, which is rare for RBs who are often around zero air yards. That’s helped him to good YPTs and a solid receiving TD rate so far in his career, and he saw a slight uptick in targets per game after the OC switch, for good measure. I’ve got him as a very solid receiving back this year, in addition to his typically efficient rushing.
Behind him, rookie Ray Davis looks destined for the Latavius Murray “big back” role, but I’m not projecting him for a ton of targets due to Cook’s role and also No. 3 back Ty Johnson being more of the secondary passing-down RB. I still think Davis is fine, and should have a nice role, including the potential for some short TDs if Allen doesn’t rush for as many as I suggested, and it’s entirely possible Allen’s huge rush TD rate in a half season under Brady doesn’t actually carry over. Essentially, I have Davis as a standalone value guy whose ceiling is probably capped by his QB and the other RBs on the roster, even in contingent scenarios.
The other big name in the passing game is Year 2 TE Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid gets a bad rap as a worse prospect than he probably was — he had strong production at San Diego in 2018 and 2019, including 11 TDs as a true freshman and then 835 and 8 as a sophomore, and played both years with an older WR who would make the NFL (Michael Bandy). After transferring to Utah, he lost the 2020 season to the pandemic (the lack of practice time I’m sure hurt his integration and he barely played), but then in 2021 and 2022, at an advanced age, he had Dominator Ratings over 25% both years, and scoring 8 TDs both times to make it at least 8 TDs in all four collegiate seasons he played. Then the Bills took him in the first round, and in the first half of the season, he had a very underneath role, which many seemed to cling to. But after the coordinator change, his aDOT rose substantially; he went from 4.2 under Ken Dorsey to 9.4 under Joe Brady. The average for a TE was 7.6 the last I did a test, so his second-half figure was well above average, which could actually lead to some plus efficiency boosts, despite people talking about him like a low-aDOT underneath-only guy. And for the season, his depth-adjusted RACR was solid, so we can hope for some decent efficiency as he develops. Additionally, just earning 460 routes as a rookie TE is very strong. For whatever reason, we have this Year 2 TE with first-round draft capital that many act like can’t take a step forward, in a passing game where only three players last year had more than 55 targets, and the other two are now departed. I have Kincaid as a strong bet to grow on his 91 targets from last year, and with real upside to flirt with the top TEs at the position. Looking at his full-season data hides some of the role change, and while he wasn’t hyper-efficient, he was a rookie and being moved around some. Last year’s TE league leader in wTPRR was at 0.56; Kincaid in the first had was at 0.38 largely due to his low aDOT, but was up to 0.50 in the second half. For the season, his 19.6% TPRR was very strong for a TE, especially a rookie, and it was more than two percentage points better than Dawson Knox’s best career season (don’t buy the idea he’s just Knox). A big question is about his routes, and Kincaid’s usage did spike when Knox was out, but while it fell back after Knox returned, it didn’t fall back to where it had been in the early going, i.e. he’d still made some gains through the season. And I’d expect that to continue into Year 2, for his role to expand. His usage that I wrote about in the Preseason Week 1 recap was pretty bullish. This is an offense that appears largely centered on Kincaid in the passing game, with a rotating cast of characters around him, and I’m definitely in on his specific upside at the position.
Knox should be a rotational second TE who doesn’t post good TPRRs and thus isn’t really fantasy relevant, while the WRs all have target-earning question marks. Rookie Keon Coleman played a lot in the first preseason game but has a questionable profile. He’s a nice upside bet where applicable, but not my favorite in the class. One of my favorite stats I dug up this offseason is Curtis Samuel has earned between 90 and 105 targets in four of the past five seasons (and was hurt in the other one). He could maybe break that barrier, but is probably going to factor in without being the focal point. (We could see some rushing from him, as well, which would be exciting. He’s more of a best ball play, though.) Khalil Shakir was below 14% TPRRs in each of his first two seasons, and has a shaky routes role, but was hyper-efficient per-target. I could see his TPRR bumping a bit if he’s more of a focal point — earlier in progressions — but we don’t tend to see massive jumps from these ranges. He could be vaguely interesting, though, if the efficiency stuck in that case (I’m trying to be nice, because I’m pretty out on him, but I guess there’s some part of me that worries they have plans for him). And then Marquez Valdes-Scantling looks like the other guy that will factor in, and he’s a total downfield-route role-player that saw his TPRR crater in K.C. last year and will likely just run a lot of wind sprints. These guys, plus Knox, are not target-earning competition for Kincaid and Cook, if those guys’ upside cases do materialize, but they are uncertain as well, and so I can’t really tell you that you can’t be in on someone in this passing game. When Shakir got a little camp buzz, I did pay attention to that, because of the uncertainty. Probably Coleman being a rookie smash is the real upside case here, but there are a lot of ways it can play out.
Signal: Josh Allen — big rush TD bump under Joe Brady, some potential to offset any lost passing production with rush TDs; James Cook — really nice receiving role with solid volume plus some air yards, helping his efficiency; Ray Davis — should work into a standalone value role with some ceiling concerns; Dalton Kincaid — strong upside TE play, could be focal point of the offense; Bills WRs — no strong target-earning profiles, Keon Coleman is the upside play due to rookie uncertainty
Noise: Dawson Knox — implication his involvement will dramatically curtail Kincaid’s upside, as they appear likely to play together a good amount
Miami Dolphins
Key Stat: De’Von Achane — 2.87 RYOE/Att (led NFL; CMC was second with 1.32)
The Dolphins have been pretty straightforward the past couple years: Mike McDaniel schemes up a system that gets the ball in his guys’ hands, in good spots, and because defenses don’t seem to have answers, everything here concentrates to a high degree, and also efficiency is sort of the rule. Last offseason, I talked about some mild concern that could get figured out; at this point, I’m leaning into it hard, as one of those uniquely valuable fantasy offenses to target.
As I wrote about in the TPRR analysis, Tyreek Hill ran away with per-route volume, while Jaylen Waddle was still top-15 in both TPRR and wTPRR league-wide, finishing ahead of many team’s No. 1 WRs despite operating in an offense with the guy running away with the top spot. Durham Smythe finished third on this team in receiving yardage with just 366 yards. In fact, the third most targets on this team has been 43 and 52 the past two years, and the third most yards just 366 and 417. It’s a hyper-concentrated offense on Hill and Waddle, and for that reason I haven’t played into the Odell Beckham or Jonnu Smith additions in any meaningful way. For Jonnu, his 70 targets and 582 yards as the Falcons’ No. 2 TE last year were actually a career high; he was never a big volume-earner in Tennessee or after signing the big contract in New England. Hoping he’ll parlay last season’s successes into a key third receiving role in this offense is a really thin bet I’ve been avoiding. It doesn’t help that some camp reports have him rotating with Smythe.