Man, yesterday was wild. Week 1 is always a bit of a journey to pull in the data sources I want to use, but I had to go back to good ol’ hand-counting play-by-play logs in some cases because some of my favorite tools weren’t ready. Oh, and it happened to be my younger daughter’s first day of kindergarten, after missing all of preschool last year, so that was a tough one for me and the missus. Stealing Signals is such an all-day, hyper-focused thing, but was also not my most important job yesterday, which was being there to walk her to school in the morning and listen to her stories when she got home in the afternoon. It was so dang exciting as a parent, and she had an absolute blast; she made two (2) new friends, but one wouldn’t tell her her name, and yes an elated five-year-old relaying that was as cute as it sounds; she learned new songs and new games and new rules, and it was all the coolest thing she’s ever done. She was bouncing off walls. Kids are so resilient, man.
And then also there were 10 games to write up, ha! I realized as I woke up this morning I was a little less focused than usual, and maybe didn’t get as actionable as I would have liked in some spots. It’s key to have that stuff in Week 1, so let’s start this Part 2 with clarifying takes on some hot names that I got asked about in the comments to Part 1.
“After drafting zero-RB is Elijah Mitchell worth burning my top waiver priority when SF can change RB scripts any given Sunday and most of the touches are TRAP as you described. Seems perhaps too high risk”
Absolutely use your top waiver priority. You gotta do it at some point; holding out for something better doesn’t always pan out. Mitchell looked great and should be expected to be the lead for now. We’ll get more into Ty’Son Williams below, but he definitely lost snaps down the stretch on Monday Night Football after a big start, and you have to think some of the young player mistakes were the big issue, between some fumbles on exchanges and his pass blocking after he got ran over for what became a key Lamar Jackson fumble. That kind of thing could plague Mitchell, too, but he brings elite physical traits that Kyle Shanahan wants to utilize.
What we know about Mitchell right now is he was so good in camp they deactivated the third-round pick who was drafted ahead of him, and then he answered the bell in Week 1 with a huge performance. You absolutely make those bets when you can — it’s easy to focus on the downside but there's also the scenario where him being the best back in camp shows in the games and he just takes this job and runs with it because he's better than everyone else. There are no sure things, but Mitchell’s prospect profile was strong, he’s extremely athletic, and while he was a four-year guy, he was productive throughout, averaging 92 yards from scrimmage across 42 games at Louisiana-Lafayette. He scored 46 times in those 42 career college games. Sun Belt conference, fine. But he might just be really good at football.
(Note: I wrote this all before Raheem Mostert announced he’s out for the year, but it only reinforces the point. Kerryon Johnson is also worth a stash in deep leagues.)
“If a WR doesn't have top-20 upside, I don't roster him. Do you think Christian Kirk has that kind of upside?
I know we've all moved on to crushing on Rondale Moore by now, but if we didn't already have Moore, would we be more excited about Kirk's role?”
Kirk looked good, absolutely, but there's something to be said about him producing while Rondale wasn't really on the field, which isn't going to last forever. Last year, I made the point about A.J. Green's presence sort of opening up production for the other pass-catchers on the field at the same time as him with the Bengals. And I think that’s part of what we saw in Week 1 with Kirk.
I've always really liked Kirk, but it's just going to be very different in terms of him earning targets when it's alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Moore versus being alongside Hopkins and then Green. And the fact that he saw just five targets in this game, as I alluded to in my writeup, is pretty telling to me. A lot of secondary receivers can have splash two-touchdown games on five targets. The question for being a top-20 WR is consistent target volume. That’s the part that I wouldn’t go wild on Kirk over, and since you have to make the bet this week (given his production was there and he’s sure to get picked up), it’s probably not one I’ll make if he’s expensive to add. If he’s free, fine. But I’m definitely swinging at Mitchell over Kirk.
“Among numerous surprising developments, I'll cop to being astonished at Mike Williams' sudden lower-adot, high-volume role, something he's never really had in the NFL. If this sticks, AND considering that he's proven in the past to be a strong red-zone threat, AND he's always been a strong injury-arbitration play... could this finally be the year he puts it all together?”
I think he was one of the biggest storylines of Week 1 and could be an absolute monster with the lack of viable target competition here. This is one where I already talked through the reasons, but man, that was the exact Week 1 you wanted to see from Williams and there’s absolutely nothing standing in the way of him doing that again several times this year. Ekeler’s going to get more targets, that’s part of it. But the Chargers are going to throw.
Williams will probably have some low-target duds — and specifically I’m thinking about when Keenan Allen gets 20 targets and/or Ekeler is more involved overall and/or they lean more to the run — so Williams’ overall upside will come down to how many of these games he strings together. It reminds me of Will Fuller in Week 1 last year, though. Fuller had been a bit better to that point in his career, but we saw the intermediate usage right away last year, and Fuller had played on Thursday night and I had a Saturday night Main Event draft and took Fuller in the fourth after he’d been like a sixth- or seventh-rounder all draft season. I’d do similar with Williams right now after one week; maybe he’s not quite a fourth rounder, but his value rose a lot in my book here.
I’ve said before that consistency is overrated; that was always the knock on Fuller, until his dud games were just a little less frequent, and suddenly everyone was like “oh this guy is good 75% of the time instead of 50% of the time and that changes everything,” even though when he was good in fewer games he was dropping these 50-burgers that were apparently too good to matter and somehow just highlighted the duds? I’ve never understood any of this, to be honest, because that line is super thin for wide receivers compared to how much weight we put on it. It’s a volatile position, and for so many guys the perception just comes down to some arbitrary definition of consistency.
Anyway, when we have a clear upside scenario for a player with a decent-sized range of outcomes, and we see what looks like that upside scenario right away, we need to react. Williams’ Week 1 role — specifically the intermediate targets, the target share over 25%, the end zone target/TD — looked like that upside scenario.
Alright, let’s get to Part 2. Six more games today, including a bunch of high-profile offenses. And then after those games, I’ll recap the Biggest Signals and Biggest Noise of Week 1 down below, followed by my typical High-Value Touch breakdown with some great visuals from Sam Hoppen, who you should be following on Twitter.
Data is typically courtesy of several RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, Fantasy Evaluator, Add More Funds, RotoGrinders, or PFF. Part 1 included a guide on some important acronyms to know for Stealing Signals like HVT, TPRR, TRAP, and WOPR.
Saints 38, Packers 3
RB Snap Notes: Alvin Kamara: 73% (2020 avg: 65%), Tony Jones: 35%, Aaron Jones: 49%, AJ Dillon: 28%
WR Snap Notes: Marquez Callaway: 84%, Deonte Harris: 44%, Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 29%, Davante Adams: 70%, Allen Lazard: 68%, Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 63%
TE Snap Notes: Adam Trautman: 82%, Juwan Johnson: 19%, Robert Tonyan: 49%
Key Stat: Packers — 17 first half plays (70 offensive yards), 52 total plays (229 yards)
There’s very little we can take from the Packers’ snap shares in this game. The Saints dominated time of possession in the first half with three long scoring drives, and when Green Bay took back over with 1:07 remaining in the half, they had run just 12 plays across two drives. They added five more passes to set up a field goal, then had a long drive to open up the second half that was also very pass-heavy. That ended in an interception in the red zone, and was followed by a short drive (four plays) that also ended in an interception, and then a four-and-out as they were already in go-for-it mode late in the third quarter. One more quick drive later, Jordan Love was in the game with all backups, and the Packers’ second-string totaled 16 fourth-quarter snaps (31% of their total plays) in garbage time.
A couple interesting notes on Green Bay, though. I’d assumed Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard would split time on the outside with Randall Cobb or perhaps rookie Amari Rodgers in the slot, but that didn’t appear to be the arrangement at all. MVS and Lazard were both in with the first team, while Cobb and Rodgers got their run later with the backups. The WRs rotated with each of MVS, Lazard, and Davante Adams playing in the slot some. That’s big news for both Valdes-Scantling and Lazard relative to what I was expecting. Adams (7-5-56) had a solid day considering game situation. Valdes-Scantling (8-3-17) racked up 156 air yards, a big number. Lazard (4-2-16) and Robert Tonyan (4-2-8) were the other Packers targeted at least four times, and this appears to be the main core of the downfield receiving weapons.
Aaron Jones (5-9 rushing, 2-2-13 receiving) and AJ Dillon (4-19, 2-1-7) were perhaps the two most impacted by the game situation. Jones started and played the first drive, and then after a long wait for a 15-play Saints drive, Dillon started the second drive. We also saw Dillon stay on for a longer third down, and see two targets, though Jones ran twice as many routes. But it was pretty clearly the 1A/1B split I had been anticipating, at least to my eye — if Dillon were the clear No. 2 in more of a backup capacity, Jones could have easily started the second drive after a long breather between the Packers’ first two drives, and Jones also could have come on for the third down I referenced. They want to use Dillon, too.
I do expect the Packers to completely bounce back. Don’t overreact; this whole game was noise from a production standpoint for their offense. The Packers ask teams to beat them on the ground, and the Saints were happy to oblige with long, slow possessions. That isn’t going to happen again, to this extreme of a degree, and where the Packers not only have the game shortened on them but then also don’t succeed in their reduced offensive chances. Don’t penalize their players for a weird football outcome.
The Saints went 21/39 with their pass/run ratio in the huge positive script. Jameis Winston looked fine, and I mostly liked their offense with some intelligently-timed downfield passes to balance out the heavy run lean. Winston wound up throwing five touchdowns on just 14 completions, so that’s a ridiculous rate. He also had just 148 passing yards despite finding Deonte Harris (2-2-72-1) for a 55-yard score in the third quarter. Obviously script will change the split some in future weeks, but this does look like a run-based offense. Marquez Callaway (2-1-14) led the way with routes on 88% of dropbacks as the clear No. 1, while Harris was second among the team’s WRs down at 58%.
Alvin Kamara rushed 20 times for 83 yards, which was just the second regular season 20-carry game of his career (third if you count postseason). But Tony Jones also rushed 11 times for 50 yards and played a nice secondary role. Jones only ran routes on 21% of dropbacks, and looks like a vaguely viable RB2 option for Zero RB teams, but Kamara really dominated the passing snaps (71% routes, 4-3-8-1 receiving) while also holding that strong edge in rush attempts, and it looks like his role is going to be larger overall than it has in the past. When the Saints throw more, he won’t hit 20 carries, but his targets should tick up (his 19% target share was very good).
Adam Trautman (6-3-18) ran routes on 75% of dropbacks, while Juwan Johnson (3-3-21-2) was only out there 38% of the time. One note in Johnson’s favor is his routes rate doubled his snap percentage, while Trautman ran fewer routes on a percentage basis than his snaps. That means Johnson is viewed more as a receiving specialist, and was playing heavily on the passing plays, as we might expect for the former WR. Trautman, by comparison, played on a lot of rushing downs, but he was also out in a lot of routes, so he was used as more of a do-everything TE. In a different game, particularly if the Saints trail, Johnson’s role could spike. And it could also grow throughout the season. But Johnson’s two touchdowns were a nice outcome, and he was a buzzy player in draft season, so he’s a pretty easy sell for me if someone is willing to pay too much.
Signal: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard — both in on three-WR sets, no Randall Cobb, MVS had 156 air yards; AJ Dillon — started second drive despite 15-play Saints drive in between, so Aaron Jones was plenty rested (looks like the 1A/1B split, not Dillon as a backup); Alvin Kamara — strong target share, snap rate, route rate, very solid Week 1 role; Marquez Callaway — routes on 88% of dropbacks, clear No. 1
Noise: Packers — 17 first-half plays, 70 first-half yards (whole game was noise for their offense, don’t penalize any of their players, football is weird sometimes); Saints — 21/39 pass/run ratio (look run heavy but the game script swayed things big time); Jameis Winston — 5 TD passes on 14 completions and 20 attempts; Juwan Johnson — two touchdowns (played on passing downs more than runs, and could see his usage spike in a pass-heavier script, but ran only 38% routes while Adam Trautman was up at 75%)
Dolphins 17, Patriots 16
RB Snap Notes: Myles Gaskin: 54% (2020 low: 61%), Malcolm Brown: 30%, Salvon Ahmed: 20%, Damien Harris: 53%, James White: 37%, Rhamondre Stevenson: 7%
WR Snap Notes: DeVante Parker: 83%, Jaylen Waddle: 80%, Albert Wilson: 41%, Jakobi Meyers: 99%, Nelson Agholor: 85%, Kendrick Bourne: 44%
TE Snap Notes: Durham Smythe: 70%, Mike Gesicki: 39% (2020 low: 45%), Hunter Long: 33%, Jonnu Smith: 73%, Hunter Henry: 72%
Key Stat: Jaylen Waddle — 93% routes, 22% target share, 26% air yards share
In 10 games last year, Myles Gaskin (9-49 rushing, 5-5-27 receiving) never played fewer than 61% of snaps, but he was at 54% in Week 1 here. Gaskin did run routes on 55% of dropbacks and catch all five targets he saw. That amounted to 16 total routes, while Salvon Ahmed (3-4, 3-2-24) ran seven routes and Malcolm Brown (5-16, 0-0-0) ran just one route while pass blocking on four passing plays. So it wasn’t great that Gaskin was in a three-man committee, but Brown basically only pass blocked and stole a couple carries. Brown did get the lone green zone touch, a carry from the 7-yard line, but Gaskin got a carry from the 11 and Ahmed also got one from the 15, so I’m not sure what to make of any of that. It seems Gaskin’s squeezed for carries and potentially green zone touches a bit by Brown, then Ahmed actually racked up 31 air yards on his three targets to lead all RBs in air yards Week 1, so Gaskin is squeezed a bit for passing-game volume by Ahmed. Ahmed getting three carries and three targets on just 11 snaps is pretty notable; it’s Tony Pollard-esque in how Miami wanted to make sure to utilize him. And yet all that aside, Gaskin’s role certainly wasn’t poor, especially given the draft day discount. For one week at least, the market was basically right on him.
Jaylen Waddle (6-4-61-1) had a very strong Week 1 role and looked great, running routes on 93% of dropbacks alongside DeVante Parker’s (7-4-81) 97%. There’s some slight concern about pass volume with Will Fuller expected back in Week 2, but Waddle emerging as a solid piece of the puzzle during Fuller’s suspension is a big sign. He ran out of the slot on 75% of his snaps, and that seemed to cut into Mike Gesicki’s (2-0-0) role, as Gesicki’s slot rate was down a bit from 2020 (56% in Week 1, 67% in 2020) and so was Gesicki’s route percentage (59% in Week 1, typically over 70% in 2020). Gesicki can still have solid days running routes on about 60% of dropbacks, but Fuller’s presence in Week 2 might push that number down further. Albert Wilson (2-0-0) ran routes on 59% of dropbacks and will likely get boxed out with Fuller out.
We figured New England would be fairly run-based, so it was somewhat interesting to see them pushing the pace a little bit in this game. They trailed a decent amount and definitely ran plenty, but Mac Jones threw 39 passes in his debut (and looked good doing it), a really good sign for there being some fantasy value in this offense this year.
Jakobi Meyers (9-6-44 with 63 air yards) and Nelson Agholor (7-5-72-1 with 79 air yards) clearly led the way in the passing game, each running routes on 95% of dropbacks. Their roles were basically equally valuable, while Kendrick Bourne (3-1-17) was third down at 60% routes.
The tight end split went 58% routes for Hunter Henry (3-3-31) and 48% for Jonnu Smith (5-5-42, plus a rush attempt for 6 yards). Jonnu’s usage seemed more fun, but Henry ran routes on a higher percentage of his snaps. I have them basically equal after one week, and was a bit surprised their combined role wasn’t larger.
Damien Harris (23-100, 3-2-17 receiving) ran hard and looked good, but he fumbled at the Dolphins’ 11-yard line, down one point, with 3:35 to go. The Patriots wouldn’t get the ball back after that. Rhamondre Stevenson was being used early, getting touches on the second drive, and was basically benched for the game after fumbling in the first quarter. I think Belichick is probably a bit harder on rookies, and is more likely to bench an ancillary piece like Stevenson, so I don’t suspect this will carry over for Harris next week too much, and especially when you consider the clearest alternative also fumbled. But I can’t imagine Belichick was happy about all that and it’s a risky game to be losing fumbles in a Belichick offense no matter who you are. James White (4-12, 7-6-49) was involved in the passing game while running routes on 40% of dropbacks. Harris ran routes on 25%, which was actually pretty decent for his expected role, and he got the lone RB green zone touch to get to 3 HVT while White was at 6.
Signal: Myles Gaskin — 54% snap share (never played fewer than 61% of snaps in 10 games last year), but still clear lead, 5 HVT; Jaylen Waddle — 93% routes, 22% target share, 26% air yards share (big Week 1 role with Fuller out); Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor — co-No. 1s; Patriots — solid pace, pass volume
Noise: Mike Gesicki — 0 catches (routes were down, and we’ll have to see what happens with Fuller back, but he was still decently involved); Patriots RBs — Rhamondre Stevenson played early but was benched for first quarter fumble, Damien Harris looked good but fumbled late, not sure what split to expect next week
Broncos 27, Giants 13
RB Snap Notes: Melvin Gordon: 50%, Javonte Williams: 50%, Saquon Barkley: 48%, Devontae Booker: 39%
WR Snap Notes: Courtland Sutton: 80%, Tim Patrick: 70%, Jerry Jeudy: 47% (injured), KJ Hamler: 36%, Sterling Shepard: 95%, Kenny Golladay: 85%, Darius Slayton: 70%, Kadarius Toney: 8%
TE Snap Notes: Noah Fant: 77%, Albert Okwuegbunam: 56%, Kyle Rudolph: 77%, Kaden Smith: 48%
Key Stat: Sterling Shepard — 25% target share, 31% air yards share
Well, the Jerry Jeudy injury sucks. Jeudy had already gone 7-6-72 when he left on the first drive of the third quarter. The question is what does it mean? My read is it really helps Noah Fant’s breakout case, because they both operate in the shallow to intermediate range a decent amount. Fant led the team with eight targets, catching six for 62 yards while running routes on 66% of dropbacks. Albert Okwuegbunam (3-3-16-1) was very good too on his 44% routes.
Courtland Sutton (3-1-14) led the team in routes, but was quiet, which could have been Teddy Bridgewater not getting the ball downfield, although he did take some shots to KJ Hamler (4-3-41). Hamler only ran routes on 49% of dropbacks, but looked unguardable, and should have had a long touchdown if not for a drop that was also not a great pass behind Hamler after he’d created a ton of separation behind the defense. Hamler’s an add on talent alone. Tim Patrick (4-4-39-1) is the other name to know. He ran routes on 66% of dropbacks, is a fairly natural fit for Jeudy’s vacated routes, and isn’t a bad player, but it’s hard for me to see him emerging among the talent around him. I suspect he’ll have a lot of pretty OK lines like this.
Javonte Williams (14-45, 1-1-(-4) receiving) starting in a 50/50 split with Melvin Gordon (11-101-1, 3-3-17) was a pretty major story. Williams is a 21-year-old rookie, and typically we see rookie workloads grow over the course of the season. That may not happen soon given Gordon went 70 yards for a game-sealing touchdown in the fourth quarter, but as we look to the later parts of the season, this start for Williams is very positive. It looked to me like the two backs were used pretty interchangeably.
The Giants looked bad, but Sterling Shepard (9-7-113-1) was their brightest spot. Kenny Golladay (6-4-64) and Darius Slayton (7-3-65) were both very active as well, and these three WRs all ran routes on at least 75% of dropbacks, with Shepard leading the way up at 93%, while Kadarius Toney played just five snaps. Shepard drew the most targets and was most efficient, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the production bounced around here week to week. We’ll also expect Evan Engram back at some point, but he missed. In his absence, Kyle Rudolph ran routes on 63% of dropbacks but wasn’t productive (5-2-8).
We found out before the game Saquon Barkley would be brought along slowly, but his role wasn’t that bad. He got 10 of just 14 RB rush attempts, and ran more routes than Devontae Booker, who acted as a one-for-one backup. The offense just kind of stunk, and Barkley didn’t do much with his opportunities. Expect his role to grow, perhaps not on the Thursday nighter this week, but hopefully by Week 3.
Signal: Javonte Williams — 50/50 workload split is a big Week 1 role for a 21-year-old rookie; KJ Hamler — looked unguardable, routes weren’t great but an add on talent alone
Noise: Saquon Barkley — 48% snap share, poor performance (being brought along slowly, but was also held back by the offense and probably does more with 10 carries and three targets most weeks)
Chiefs 33, Browns 29
RB Snap Notes: Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 72%, Darrel Williams: 22%, Jerick McKinnon: 6%, Nick Chubb: 53%, Kareem Hunt: 47%
WR Snap Notes: Tyreek Hill: 88%, Demarcus Robinson: 74%, Mecole Hardman: 69% (2020 high: 69%), Byron Pringle: 17%, Jarvis Landry: 86%, Donovan Peoples-Jones: 80%, Anthony Schwartz: 53%
TE Snap Notes: Travis Kelce: 85%, Austin Hooper: 64%, David Njoku: 59%, Harrison Bryant: 32%
Key Stat: Mecole Hardman — routes on 83% of dropbacks, easily the No. 2 WR there
This was a fun one. The Browns put together some long, impressive first-half drives that limited what the Chiefs could do, but Kansas City managed the final two touchdowns to come from behind to win a matchup that made the Browns look very good despite the loss.
Baker Mayfield came out passing a bit more, but it a bit frustrating to see this power run team then pound in four rushing touchdowns and throw for none. Nick Chubb (15-83-2 with 2-2-18 receiving) did Nick Chubb things, and Kareem Hunt (6-33-1, 3-3-28) did Kareem Hunt things. Hunt ran 48% routes, and Chubb was down at 29%. Chubb got four green zone touches, while Hunt got two plus a 2-point conversion. Same ol’, same ol’.
In the passing game, it seemed to me that Donovan Peoples-Jones played the Odell Beckham role, while rookie Anthony Schwartz then took DPJ’s rotational deep threat snaps. Schwartz ran routes on just 55% of dropbacks, but led the team with 126 air yards and posted a solid 5-3-69 line. Peoples-Jones went just 1-1-4 on 84% routes and wasn’t running downfield much at all. I’ll be very curious to see whether he plays that downfield role when OBJ is back, but I’m not buying Schwartz’s big air yards as being something that sticks. At the least, he’s likely to split with DPJ.
Jarvis Landry (5-5-71) rushed twice and got in the end zone that way, and ran a route on 87% of dropbacks. David Njoku (5-3-76) ran more routes (48%) than Austin Hooper (3-3-27 on 45%).
Tyreek Hill (15-11-197-1) is really good, and for as optimistic as I am about Stefon Diggs and I fully expect Davante Adams to bounce back, Hill has always been right with them and man, I think after Week 1 you have to have him WR1. Travis Kelce (7-6-76-2) is also good. These are two good football players doing good football things.
Mecole Hardman (3-3-19) might just be bad, but he’s been very efficient in this offense and his role was definitely bigger here than even last year, and last year it slightly grew from his rookie year, despite him consistently underperforming expectations. At this point, Hill and Kelce are very entrenched as almost unstoppable top two forces, but “stop trying to make Hardman happen” is not a fair response to Hardman’s career trajectory and where we’re at now. He ran routes on 83% of dropbacks in Week 1, and this offense is explosive. Demarcus Robinson (2-1-9) was at 68% routes, well behind Hardman, and Hardman playing alongside Hill this much is a pretty huge note. Hardman’s a definite hold and possible trade candidate.
I briefly mentioned in yesterday’s post that Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14-43, 3-3-29 receiving) was sort of not needed in the offense Sunday, and despite a huge snap role, the production wasn’t great. I’m taking the 72% snap share optimistically, though, and he’ll definitely have his big games. Darrel Williams (1-4 rushing, no targets) looked like the clear No. 2, but Jerick McKinnon probably has more handcuff value.
Signal: David Njoku — routes on 48% of dropbacks, five targets (Austin Hooper — routes on 45%, three targets); Mecole Hardman — routes on 83% of dropbacks, played alongside Tyreek Hill extensively, a definite hold
Noise: Anthony Schwartz — 126 air yards (that number pops, but was in the rotational deep threat role Donovan Peoples-Jones played last year while DPJ ran way more routes in the Odell Beckham role, and I’m not sure Schwartz will have a role when OBJ is back)
Rams 34, Bears 14
RB Snap Notes: Darrell Henderson: 94%, Sony Michel: 6%, David Montgomery: 59% (lowest since Week 3, 2020), Damien Williams: 43%
WR Snap Notes: Cooper Kupp: 94%, Robert Woods: 77%, Van Jefferson: 69%, Darnell Mooney: 100%, Allen Robinson: 91%, Damiere Byrd: 52%, Marquise Goodwin: 38%
TE Snap Notes: Tyler Higbee: 100%, Cole Kmet: 74%, Jimmy Graham: 20%
Key Stat: Darrell Henderson — 94% snap share, 78% routes, 17 of 18 RB touches
Darrell Henderson’s role was really something Sunday night, and despite the Rams coming out pretty pass-heavy he got there because he played on 94% of the snaps. Henderson rushed 16 times for 70 yards and a score, and while he only saw one target (17-yard catch), he ran routes on 78% of dropbacks. Sony Michel played sparingly, rushing one time for 2 yards, and Henderson looked like a full-on three-down back in all phases.
By contrast, David Montgomery hit a snap share of at least 80% in 9 of 12 games after Tarik Cohen’s injury last year, so his 59% share in Week 1 was a significant departure from that role. Damien Williams split the routes with Montgomery 50/50, so Williams seeing five targets to Montgomery’s one probably isn’t perfectly indicative of future expectations. Montgomery did look pretty good running the ball, and his early 41-yard rush was reminiscent of the several big plays he hit late last season. This offense might also get better if and when Justin Fields takes over, but for now Montgomery is losing important passing-down snaps in a bad offense, which is not ideal.
Cooper Kupp (10-7-108-1) dominated the receiving work, while Robert Woods (4-3-27-1 with a rush attempt for 7 yards) was a clear secondary option. I didn’t see any injury, but while Kupp ran routes on 100% of dropbacks, Woods only ran routes on 67%. Meanwhile, Tyler Higbee (6-5-68) ran routes on 93% of dropbacks and even Van Jefferson (3-2-80-1) had a higher route share than Woods, as Jefferson was up at 85% routes. In the past we’ve seen Kupp’s role dip at times, but Woods stay heavily involved; that may have flipped? If it has, Kupp could be a star, because Kupp’s peripherals like TPRR have always tended to be better than Woods’.
Higbee looks like a win for drafters through one week, as well, and the Rams were another very concentrated offense, much like Zac Taylor’s Bengals (Taylor’s scheme draws from his time with the Rams). I should probably give a mea culpa on Jefferson, and it was laughably inevitable he would score a long touchdown right away on national TV, but then dude only drew two more targets all game after that, so, uh, I’ll just keep digging into my clear bias here. Jefferson is fool’s gold. DeSean Jackson (2-2-21) only ran 10 targets was targeted nearly as much, because he’s good.
Andy Dalton didn’t look good, and Matt Nagy is apparently not ready to let Fields take over, despite Fields rushing for a score and completing both his passes in limited work. Fields is an obvious hold and I’m super excited for when he gets his chance, but for now, we have this.
Cole Kmet (7-5-42) ran routes on 71% of dropbacks while Jimmy Graham (2-1-11) was way down at 20%. Kmet should be rostered everywhere as a Year 2 breakout candidate. Allen Robinson (11-6-35) deserves better, and Darnell Mooney (7-5-26) ran routes on 100% of dropbacks and he does, too. Those two WRs and Kmet were the core of the downfield passing attack, with Damiere Byrd (3-3-19) and Marquise Goodwin (4-4-45) rotating. Goodwin had the highest aDOT on the team at 7.0, because Dalton sucks.
Signal: Darrell Henderson — 94% snap share, 78% routes, 17 of 18 RB touches; David Montgomery — 59% snap share (over 80% in 9 of 12 games after Cohen’s injury in 2020), 44% routes; Cooper Kupp — 100% routes (Robert Woods — 67%); Rams — concentrated offense; Tyler Higbee — 93% routes, 23% target share; Cole Kmet — 71% routes, 7 targets (Jimmy Graham — 20% routes, 2 targets)
Noise: Van Jefferson — had the long TD, but only earned three targets on 23 routes, and also I’ve sworn an oath to never admit he’s anything other than bad; Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney — terrible YPTs, which are signals of how bad Andy Dalton is, and reflective of their sub-7 aDOTs, but should be mostly noisy in the scope of their seasons because that QB change has to come sooner than later
Raiders 33, Ravens 27
RB Snap Notes: Josh Jacobs: 52%, Kenyan Drake: 48%, Ty’Son Williams: 51%, Latavius Murray: 31%, Trenton Cannon: 13%
WR Snap Notes: Bryan Edwards: 66%, Henry Ruggs: 65%, Hunter Renfrow: 55%, Zay Jones: 23%, Sammy Watkins: 82%, Marquise Brown: 69%, Devin Duvernay: 57%
TE Snap Notes: Darren Waller: 94%, Mark Andrews: 81% (second regular season game over 80% of career)
Key Stat: Darren Waller — 19 targets, 203 air yards (second most in Week 1)
Darren Waller is too big to fail. Or his role is. There were some bumpy moments, but dude saw 19 targets and 203 air yards en route to a 10-105-1 line. Derek Carr wound up passing 56 times in a come-from-behind win, but anyone who watched Monday Night Football knows Waller was getting absolutely peppered from the jump, and the additional passing into overtime just made his target share look vaguely reasonable instead of sitting at like 50%.
The Raiders’ receivers rotated quite a bit, with Bryan Edwards (5-4-81) running routes on 64% of snaps, Hunter Renfrow (9-6-70) at 61%, and Henry Ruggs (5-2-46) at 57%. Ruggs appeared to have some calf cramping, so that may have limited him. Edwards caught all four of his passes on the final drive of regulation or in overtime. None of these guys can be used right now with Waller soaking up so much volume and their relatively lackluster production in a game that featured a ton of passing late.
Josh Jacobs scored twice, but still only managed 17 PPR points, which is about all you need to know about players with limited HVT — their ceilings aren’t actually that high even with two scores, and their floors can be very low. Kenyan Drake split time with Jacobs, and they split routes 50/50, though Drake saw five targets to Jacobs’ two. The Raiders ran 80 plays, and most weeks this split is going to be bad news for both rather than the mildly fantasy friendly result we saw in Week 1.
Mark Andrews’ (5-3-20) 55 snaps were one shy of his career high in a regular season game, and it was only the second time in his career he played over 80% of the snaps. His single highest snap total came in the Ravens’ final playoff game last year, and he was also up over 80% in that loss to Buffalo. Andrews ran routes on 95% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks. Last year I theorized Andrews’ role might grow after Hayden Hurst was traded, but apparently it required Nick Boyle to also get hurt. This is pretty huge for his value and I’d expect more consistent target volume than we’ve ever seen from him if it sticks, because he’s typically earned targets at a very high rate.
Sammy Watkins (8-4-96) was also at 95% routes while Marquise Brown (6-6-69-1) was at 87%, and those were the three clear top targets in the passing game. Both looked solid in their debuts, but pass volume is definitely a concern week to week in this offense for both these guys as well as Andrews.
Ty’Son Williams (9-65-1, 4-3-29 receiving) got the start for the Ravens at RB, and looked pretty good, including a 35-yard TD run early. But as I noted in the intro, he was likely at fault on a couple botched read option exchanges with Jackson, and he also got destroyed in pass protection on a play that directly led to a crucial fumble. Latavius Murray (10-28-1) took over more as the game went on, but man he looked pretty rough. Murray is about the only back that’s ever looked inefficient as a rusher in the Ravens’ elite rushing attack. It will be very interesting to monitor what happens with Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman this week. The best guess right now is still Williams as the most valuable guy going forward, because he did look good.
Signal: Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow — none were over 65% routes, all benefited from the elevated passing late but probably aren’t startable right now given Darren Waller’s presence; Mark Andrews — 81% snaps, 95% routes (big for his value since he’s strong at earning targets); Sammy Watkins — 95% routes
Noise: Josh Jacobs — 17 PPR points (12 came on two TDs, split with Kenyan Drake was even, not much to get excited about here other than the Week 1 result); Ravens RB usage — Ty’Son Williams comes out looking good, but lost work after a few mistakes, Latavius Murray wasn’t very efficient (lot to be decided here)
Biggest Signals of Week 1
As with last year, I’ll vaguely try to rank these in order of most importance, but it’s not exact, and also it’s Week 1 so everything is important. Some of these are important because they are about important players, others because of big value changes, and still others like James Robinson because what I’m seeing around the industry is panic but I think the signal was his pass-catching role could be pretty strong, so that’s important because of how much it differed from expectation.
Anyway, I’m not confident in how I ranked things this week. Week 1 was loaded. But we’re definitely starting with Elijah Mitchell.
Elijah Mitchell — explosive, didn’t get any HVT, still the clear top waiver add with Raheem Mostert out for the year
T.J. Hockenson, D’Andre Swift — 12 combined first-half targets (rest of team: 8), focal points of the passing game
Darrell Henderson — 94% snap share, 78% routes, 17 of 18 RB touches
Austin Ekeler — four green zone carries, all on different drives, the HVT ceiling is the roof
Kenneth Gainwell — strong Week 1 role as the No. 2, solid RB add
Mike Williams — 12 targets at a lower 9.8 aDOT was a great sign
James Robinson — 64% routes, 6 targets (looked like he was in the role we assumed Travis Etienne would play, while Carlos Hyde was in the role we assumed Robinson would)
D.J. Moore — fantastic usage, jet motion tip pass, rush attempt, downfield targets, a friggin’ punt return, it was all there
Jaylen Waddle — 93% routes, 22% target share, 26% air yards share (big Week 1 role with Will Fuller out)
KJ Hamler — looked unguardable, routes weren’t great but an add on talent alone
Jalen Hurts — looks poised to have a fantastic fantasy season
49ers backfield — unsettled and valuable, so JaMycal Hasty is also a waiver option, and don’t cut Trey Sermon
Mecole Hardman — routes on 83% of dropbacks, played alongside Tyreek Hill extensively, a definite hold
Joe Mixon — huge role, 78% snap share, 56% route share, 33 touches, 6 HVT
Bengals — very concentrated offense (bingo!) using the same five guys in 11 personnel (C.J. Uzomah — viable TE pickup)
AJ Dillon — started second drive despite 15-play Saints drive in between, so Aaron Jones was plenty rested (looks like the 1A/1B split, not Dillon as a backup)
Cooper Kupp — 100% routes (Robert Woods — 67%)
Tyler Higbee — 93% routes, 23% target share
Antonio Gibson — 13 routes to J.D. McKissic’s 9 (McKissic averaged nearly double per game in 2020)
David Montgomery — 59% snap share (over 80% in 9 of 12 games after Cohen’s injury in 2020), 44% routes
Jonathan Taylor — 9 HVT, 4 green zone touches
Marquez Callaway — routes on 88% of dropbacks, clear No. 1
Najee Harris — 100% snap share
Myles Gaskin — 54% snap share (never played fewer than 61% of snaps in 10 games last year), but still clear lead, 5 HVT
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard — both in on three-WR sets, no Randall Cobb, MVS had 156 air yards
D.J. Chark — 199 air yards
K.J. Osborn — solid No. 3 WR role as Minnesota didn’t use nearly as many two-TE sets
Mark Andrews — 81% snaps, 95% routes (big for his value since he’s strong at earning targets)
Patriots — solid pace, pass volume (Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor — co-No. 1s)
Chase Edmonds — strong side of the committee, receiving work (James Conner — short side, green zone snap edge)
Javonte Williams — 50/50 workload split is a big Week 1 role for a 21-year-old rookie
Zach Pascal — primary slot option, but also stayed on for two-WR sets
Nico Collins — 73% routes
Dyami Brown — routes on 92% of dropbacks
Christian Kirk — 96% slot usage (that’s new, and looks good, but also his efficiency is noisy on just five targets and the slot usage isn’t guaranteed to hold all year with Rondale Moore there)
Devin Singletary — 4 HVT, 2 green zone touches, better role than we saw out of any Bills’ back most weeks last year
Cole Kmet — 71% routes, 7 targets (Jimmy Graham — 20% routes, 2 targets)
Ty Johnson — most valuable role in three-man committee, but there wasn’t much value overall and it was a three-man committee
Buccaneers, Cowboys — very willing to go pass-first and lean on WR talent
Robby Anderson — in some trouble with way more competition for short-area targets
David Njoku — routes on 48% of dropbacks, five targets (Austin Hooper — routes on 45%, three targets)
Biggest Noise of Week 1
Brandon Aiyuk — I can’t explain the usage, but I don’t expect it to stick
Packers — 17 first-half plays, 70 first-half yards (whole game was noise from a production standpoint for their offense)
Austin Ekeler — zero targets (25 routes, 51% of dropbacks)
Texans — RB fantasy points (might be highest total all year, and the split production is the bigger story)
Mark Ingram — 26 carries (game script, team play volume, was fourth among HOU RBs in routes)
Leonard Fournette — massive role (Ronald Jones benched, Gio Bernard maybe not fully healthy)
Ravens RB usage — Ty’Son Williams comes out looking good, but lost work after a few mistakes, Latavius Murray wasn’t very efficient (lot to be decided here)
Patriots RBs — Rhamondre Stevenson played early but was benched for first quarter fumble, Damien Harris looked good but fumbled late, not sure what split to expect next week
Van Jefferson — had the long TD, but only earned three targets on 23 routes, and also I’ve sworn an oath to never admit he’s anything other than bad
Stefon Diggs — 69 yards on 14 targets (saw 150 air yards, splash plays will come)
Elijah Moore — one catch (84% routes, four targets, 92 air yards all pretty solid for a rookie debut)
Rondale Moore — routes on 39% of dropbacks (not irregular for a rookie in Week 1, may even last a month or more, but I expect this to rise and his role to be strong later in the year)
Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney — terrible YPTs, which are signals of how bad Andy Dalton is, and reflective of their sub-7 aDOTs, but should be mostly noisy in the scope of their seasons because that QB change has to come sooner than later
Washington — 135 passing yards
Titans — 248 total yards (this would have been their second-lowest total last year; I’m not ready to panic)
Saints — 21/39 pass/run ratio (look run heavy but the game script swayed things big time)
Lions — 84 plays, 57 pass attempts (massive fourth quarter volume boost due to onside kick, fumble recovery)
Juwan Johnson — two touchdowns (played on passing downs more than runs, and could see his usage spike in a pass-heavier script, but ran only 38% routes while Adam Trautman was up at 75%)
D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams — 9 HVT each (the split won’t be this lucrative for both most weeks, and I strongly prefer Swift, but Williams is a solid player to have unless you can get someone to overpay in a trade based on that Week 1 performance)
Justin Jefferson — scored a touchdown that the refs, in my opinion, botched
Adam Thielen — he can’t keep getting away with this (two more TDs)
Russell Wilson — 23 pass attempts (plus script, a victim of his own efficiency)
Laviska Shenault — 3.1 aDOT (short-area targets were nice, lack of downfield stuff can’t remain this extreme)
CeeDee Lamb — 76% routes (likely to add routes in two-WR sets with both TEs on the field, with Michael Gallup injured)
Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts — roles were strong, better days should come
Week 1 Player HVT Leaderboard
Here are the top players and teams in Week 1 HVT, including some awesome visuals from Sam Hoppen.
1. Christian McCaffrey (11)
2. (tie) D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Jonathan Taylor (9)
5. Dalvin Cook (7)
6. (tie) Chase Edmonds, James White, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Nyheim Hines (6)
12. (tie) Alvin Kamara, Damien Williams, Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, Myles Gaskin (5)
17. (tie) Austin Ekeler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrell Henderson, Devin Singletary, Mark Ingram, Mike Davis, Miles Sanders, Tony Pollard (4)
The below visual shows, from left to right, the top HVT earners, and from bottom to top, what percentage of those players’ workloads were HVT. Anyone toward the right of the visual is getting enough HVT, which is most important, but it’s also important to recognize the guys who are coming in below average in terms of TRAP, or their percentage of HVT. That limits upside relative to their total number of touches (which, by the way, the visual also incorporates — the size of each player’s dot indicates how many total touches they got, with larger being more).
Week 1 Team HVT Leaderboard
Broadly, the important notes with Team HVT include that committees are OK when there are enough HVT in the offense, and they are avoids when there aren’t. Workhorses can thrive in most situations, but low team HVT isn’t great for them, either. Lastly, I’m often just as likely or more likely to stash the No. 3 back no one is talking about in a high HVT offense as I am the No. 2 in a low HVT one. That tends to come into play more later in the season, though.
The Lions and Colts were especially impressive in Week 1 HVT. Great news for Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift, as well as their backfield mates.
Mac Jones immediately flipped the fortunes for NE RB HVT.
Houston isn’t going to finish this high most weeks. The totaled 40 RB touches so their TRAP was slightly below average overall, but more importantly they aren’t going to total 40 RB touches usually.
The Jets brought a 49ers-type offense over to New York with their new coaching staff, and it’s probably not a coincidence those two teams tied with the fewest HVT of Week 1.
Philadelphia’s seven was more than I expected, and explains my suddenly found Kenneth Gainwell enthusiasm. If they can stay middle of the pack with only two backs on the field, that’s definitely notable.
Hey Ben! New subscriber this year, and I already couldn't be more pleased with my investment. Big time thank you. Do you ever include any write-ups about weekly streaming quarterbacks?
I believe Montgomery left the game for a while on Sunday Night with an injury which might explain why his snap % was lower than expected