Stealing Signals, Week 11, Part 2
The Jets QB situation, churning waivers, and the Biggest Signals of Week 11
The Steelers fired Matt Canada, the Jets benched Zach Wilson, the Chiefs punted on a fourth-and-4 from the plus 39-yard line, and you guys have read me enough to know my thoughts on all of that I have to imagine.
The Chiefs thing is pretty interesting because I’ve been writing a lot less about the poor fourth-down decisions, and I realized at some point that was because they were just a dying breed. Fourth down aggression is up. Teams have come around to the merit of what forward-thinking football analysts were writing about and talking about. And one of the fun things is how the media plays a role in that, where these coaches have to start answering questions about these things that make them self-reflect. It’s in their faces daily.
It happens with player usage, too — Arthur Smith doesn’t fire off those “fantasy football” quotes out of nowhere. He’s under fire about how he uses key players. Mike McDaniel chose a more humorous path early last week in discussing De’Von Achane, asking a reporter how much money he had tied up in fantasy leagues.
I have come to really appreciate and enjoy the role of press conferences and the questions head coaches have to face on Monday mornings. Not all beat reporters are created equal, but the overall quality there is high, and most of these people are seeking truth and are willing to study new trends. The best understand they need to have their finger on the pulse of the football community.
This isn’t meant to be a brag, but rather an example — there are beat reporters that have followed me on Twitter for like seven years (I did a podcast series with Pat Kerrane in 2016 where we interviewed a beat from each team, and some of the ones we reached out to have followed me since then). I probably wouldn’t follow myself if I were in their shoes, but the point is they are likely following a ton of people, and casting a wide net, so the talking points and information that gets through to them is useful and helps them recognize which threads to pull.
Mike Tomlin’s been asked a lot about Matt Canada, for example. I think 20 or 30 years ago, that might not have been the case in the same way. Am I advocating for in-season firings becoming more common? I’m not sure I’ll go that far, but I’m also definitely not advocating against that. There are only 32 of these organizations, and there is so much money that flows around the product they put on the field for 18 weeks each season, such that I think you have to put the emphasis on new voices getting opportunities rather than focusing on how obviously the people being replaced are losing their jobs. The ones being replaced will be fine. Matt Canada wasn’t very good at his high-profile job, but was well-compensated, and now he gets to spend Thanksgiving with his family rather than working all day toward something he pretty clearly wasn’t going to figure out. Is it harsh to be pragmatic?
The same thing was true of my argument with the Jets and the QB position. Once you got a few weeks of evidence that Wilson hadn’t made massive growth from 2022, you owed it to your other players, your fans, and frankly the league to be trying out other quarterbacks. I know it sounds ridiculous to suggest throwing QBs out there who haven’t had time with the playbook and those things, but it’s absolutely what I believe the Jets should have been doing. Some would have failed miserably, but you might have found something along the line to follow up on and develop (which obviously would have been the goal). As I’ve written, Josh Dobbs was that guy not just in Minnesota but also in Arizona when he was acquired right before Week 1, and looked competent right out of the gate.
It’s not just him, either. Josh Johnson did similar for multiple teams over his career. Jacoby Brissett has had time with the playbook at various stops, but he’s played for four different teams in four years, and been ready when called upon. You can also go back to his rookie season, when Tom Brady was suspended for four games and Jimmy Garoppolo got injured and Brissett started two games reasonably competently.
Geno Smith looked like his career was done before last year, and no one wanted to consider he could be a good starter again such that Seattle was heavily faded in fantasy all offseason, and Drew Lock would routinely get drafted higher than Geno even with the team saying nothing but positive things about Geno. I talked about Case Keenum and Nick Foles and the 2017 season recently. There are so many of these examples, and the Jets were the perfect situation, where the defense was so strong you didn’t need to be perfect. You just can’t go three games in a row without leading a touchdown drive. That’s what you have to show more than.
And the key for me is you do have to act quick and mix things up. I realize it will come across as ruthless within the locker room, and there are interpersonal risks you run. You might “lose the locker room,” as they say. But landing on the right guy, eventually, can cure a lot of ills. Dobbs has shown that this year; teams have rallied around this guy. We’ve seen similar with coaching changes — the Raiders have totally new life since Josh McDaniels was fired. And I think when you preach accountability to a man, you can spin that ruthlessness. “It’s still a family in this locker room, but we have to get the job done.” That kind of stuff.
In a spot like with the Jets, you’re talking about a very low bar of competency to clear. Players aren’t stupid. Word was that while the media questions never got to Robert Saleh, he did start to lose the locker room. That’s where the other pressure comes from. Veteran players understand it’s not every season you have a defense like this. You don’t get opportunities like this often. I’ve been so passionate about this on Twitter I’ve been asked if I’m a Jets fan and just lol, no. I’m not sure there’s a team that means less to me than the Jets. I think of them and think of Rex Ryan’s similar teams that weren’t fun for fantasy but had great defenses (should probably call them Darrelle Revis teams, not Rex Ryan teams). I think of the butt fumble and bad quarterback prospects. I think of some fun stuff like Curtis Martin, but it’s just not great over there.
But I’m inherently obsessed with efficiency, and logic, and fairness, and these concepts. It just grinds my gears to see a team like the Jets do what they are doing, in a season where defense has risen to a 10- or 20-year peak and has a shot to carry a team to a championship like the 2000 Ravens — and the Jets have shown their defense is up to the challenge of navigating the AFC playoffs with the performances against all the elite QBs in the regular season. I mean we always joke about Trent Dilfer winning that Super Bowl with Baltimore, and that’s all you were looking for. That was the task. Find your Trent Dilfer, who took over that team midseason, started the final eight regular season games and four playoff games, and after losing his first start 9-6, rattled off 12 straight wins. Sounds super impressive until you realize he threw for fewer than 200 yards in all of the final eight, and completed 9, 5, 9, and 12 passes in the four playoff games (he had a 48% completion percentage in the playoffs).
But his yards per attempt were solid. He was capable of keeping the team on schedule, probably converted some third downs. I don’t remember all the specifics, and it was a different era anyway, but probably he was at least threatening enough to open room for Jamal Lewis and the run game. Or maybe they really won in spite of him, I don’t know. But the Jets weren’t going to win a title in spite of Zach Wilson in the 2023 NFL. You have to be more than what he gave you. And Tim Boyle is probably not that guy either, which makes this all so ridiculous. I don’t even want to buy into Trevor Siemian in the least, but I was legitimately excited about the note that Wilson got demoted to QB3 and Siemian will be active, on the off chance we might see him.
Anyway, the point will always be that you owed it to your team and your fans to have tried some things. I realize the idea that Aaron Rodgers might return is still a thing. But the Jets are now 4-6 and two games out of playoff position. They still have to play Miami twice, and they travel to Cleveland in Week 17, and they host Houston here in a few weeks. It was extremely clear, from the jump — and we talked about it constantly — that you needed more from the QB position than Wilson could give you. The Boyle thing feels like just trying to prove it wasn’t all on the QB, which at this point is as good of a strategy as any because probably a lot of people won’t see through it. But if Boyle (or Siemian) aren’t the answer, it’s important to remember there were other options. I listed some a few weeks ago, since the narrative shifted to that question of “Who?”
I’m struck by how applicable this point is to fantasy, and specifically churning the back end of our rosters on waivers. There’s always this risk with those adds and drops that you’ll cut someone too early. And believe me, even having done this for years, I’m not immune to that emotional tug. On a team that needs TE upside, I told a comanager this week that we cut Isaiah Likely back in September, as if that’s at all relevant. Shawn mentioned to me just last week that we’d cut both Kyler Murray and Trey McBride on one roster. But he, too, added the caveat that it isn’t exactly relevant.
These frustrations are something you have to live with, because the way to manage the roster churn — and the way to think about it — is that the probabilities of these guys hitting are always shifting. And you’re sort of buying and selling when the probabilities do shift. When things start working against players, and it doesn’t look likely they’ll break out, the argument for swapping them is that for the next week, you’ll have a player with a better short-term probability of becoming something.
These are all fractions of percents, and how to quantify it isn’t easy. But essentially, the idea is that for every week, in a given roster slot, you are rostering someone whose probabilistic range is a little juiced at that point of the season, for some reason or another. For the purposes of this discussion, let’s say that when conditions are really positive, a given waiver add has an upside outcome of 2% of all possibilities for how their season might play out, but for most other weeks that’s only 1%. The idea is that you’re churning such that every week the player you’re holding is at 2% that week, adn the cumulative impact to your roster is an increased upside probability over the course of the season.
The key is that when the conditions are great, but the player doesn’t hit, or his situation doesn’t meaningfully improve, you’re willing to admit that their probability of hitting got a little stale just in that one week, and you’re willing to churn and move on immediately. And again, you might be early at some point, but that maximizes the number of looks you get at it.
To circle that back to the Jets, I’m not saying they should have literally signed and cut a new QB every week, but similar ideas do apply. They needed to be willing to tug on a lot of different threads. I’ve been asked whether the benching of Zach Wilson was somehow satisfying for me, a couple of different ways. And I realized it’s not, at all. It just feels like such a waste.
There’s not even some element where I feel correct — this was obvious and a lot of people were saying from the moment Week 1 ended and it was clear Rodgers was out and Wilson hadn’t made massive strides, that something needed to be done. That they were able to play such good defense just made it more frustrating as the weeks rolled by. I have gotten Twitter replies that it wouldn’t have mattered, and this was a doomed season, and I want to unequivocally state that I don’t think that’s an even remotely accurate assessment.
Much like holding a doomed player on the back of your fantasy bench because of the endowment effect and an unwillingness to just let go, the Jets got literal league-worst QB play for most of the season, and accepted it, when nearly all the uncertainty leaned toward improvement. If they had tried to improve on that and failed miserably over and over, fine, maybe they still don’t find success (they might have even wound up with a worse W-L record, because the circumstances that led to some of those close wins were kind of wild).
But I believe there were absolutely, without question, paths to this Jets team being something like 7-3 right now, with how they’ve played on the defensive side of the ball. It is hard to overstate just how incompetent they have been when on offense, and how the defense has still risen to the challenge despite never “being rested” or having the offense set them up with good field position or any of that. These games would have played differently if you could actually pick up first downs on offense.
The Chargers game is a great one to highlight — recent, on National TV. The Jets got beat 27-6, but the Chargers were banged up and after an early punt return TD, they more or less realized they didn’t need to try too much on offense. They had 191 yards of offense and their final TD came after a Wilson fumble was returned to the 2-yard line with just over three minutes left. People look at a game like that and think a different QB doesn’t change a 21-point loss, but a competent QB from the first quarter of that game changes the entire texture of how it plays out. It absolutely could have changed that game into a win. There’s a whole different game to be played if the Jets could actually push the Chargers’ offense a little bit. The Jets also pretty easily could have beaten the Patriots, Chiefs, and Raiders, while the games at Dallas and at Buffalo were probably always going to be tough, but I wouldn’t have necessarily written those off, either.
Anyway, I didn’t mean to write another long intro about Zach Wilson. It was more about the decision-making, and not being willing to swerve into uncertainty and try different things. It fits fantasy churn, and Andy Reid’s fourth-down stubbornness, and how long the Matt Canada stuff went on. And with the Jets, there are legitimate reasons for it, and forces inside the building, and I’m sure promises made to Rodgers that made things complicated, etc. But man, some of that should have been reassessed when he got hurt in the literal first snaps of the year, and the whole season was laid out in front of you. You had to consider alternatives, and accept uncertainty not as a lost cause but as opportunity. Instead, it’s just one more frustrating waste of talent in the NFL.
Let’s close out Week 11. Data is typically courtesy of NFL fastR via the awesome Sam Hoppen, but I will also pull from RotoViz apps, Pro Football Reference, PFF, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Life, the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I get my PROE numbers from the great Michael Leone of Establish The Run. Part 1 of Week 1 included a glossary of important statistics to know for Stealing Signals.
You can always find an audio version of the posts in the Substack app, as well as easier-to-see versions of the visuals at the main site, bengretch.substack.com.
49ers 27, Buccaneers 14
Key Stat: Buccaneers — +8.5% (season high, also highest in Week 11)
I wrote in Input Volatility last week that these offenses are pretty concentrated and healthy, and we sort of knew what to expect. That more or less was the deal in a game that went so by the book that Pro-Football-Reference lists a spread of SF -13 and an over/under of 41, both of which would have pushed (I’m seeing closing lines of 13.5 and 41.5 or 42 at some other places, but regardless, the final score was very close to the betting lines).
Within that atmosphere, there were some bumps to certain players within their ranges of outcomes, obviously. Brandon Aiyuk (6-5-156-1) smashed, and George Kittle (9-8-89-1) also had a great day, and tied for his second most targets this year. Over his past four, Kittle has averaged 108 yards per game; he’d been at 36 per game over the season’s first six games. A huge chunk of that note is just sequencing — meaning an arbitrary arrangement of his games — but it’s a reminder that you don’t ever want to be overreacting to things like six-game samples for players with track records like Kittle’s.
Deebo Samuel (4-3-63, 1-(-1)) was a bit quieter, and I think it’s pretty safe to safe he’s fading toward being the least exciting of the core four SF skill guys, though there’s obvious context within that statement. Christian McCaffrey (21-78, 5-5-25-1) got back in the end zone after his one-week hiatus. Elijah Mitchell (4-24) got a few carries as literally the only other 49ers skill player to record a touch.
For the Bucs, they were obviously on the road against a good defense, so they were forced to throw, and weren’t necessarily efficient, both of which were things you might have predicted relative to their typical box scores. Rachaad White (9-30-1, 7-6-28) continues to rack up HVTs, and his 6.25 per game over the past four weeks is tied with Austin Ekeler for fourth most among all backs. Despite a lack of efficiency in the run game and even in the pass game here, those HVTs are really crucial and he’s able to post a solid PPR total. White was averaging just under 5 per game prior to the past four weeks, and there might be a little sequencing here as well, but his routes and overall snap share have been very strong throughout the season, so whether you buy the 6.25 lately or the 5.4 per game for the season, it’s still solid.
Mike Evans (12-5-43-1) had the hilarious 174 air yards and 0.73 WOPR, and continues to be Baker Mayfield’s clear No. 1 WR. Chris Godwin (7-6-39) is a No. 2, and then Trey Palmer (6-4-22, 1-6) and Cade Otton (5-4-49) also play their roles.
Signal: Rachaad White — 6.25 HVTs per game over past four, 5.4 for season (gives him a really nice PPR floor even when he’s not efficient, like in this game)
Noise: George Kittle — 108 yards per game in past four vs. 36 per game in season’s first six (sequencing, nothing overly actionable, and the full sample, 64.8 per game, is probably your best number)
Bills 32, Jets 6
Key Stat: Bills — (-7.9%) PROE (fifth lowest in Week 11)
The Bills won handily, with Josh Allen playing really well against a great defense, but Buffalo also going very run heavy for the second straight week. I’m not ready to call that a trend, but it definitely is worth pointing out given they switched offensive coordinators and play-callers in this one.
James Cook (17-73, 4-3-29-1) got back to being a focal point, and he did find the end zone on a short reception, but it was his only green zone touch and he unfortunately still only wound up with 3 HVTs on 20 total touches. Ty Johnson (3-11, 3-3-47-1) got some work in the passing game, and got loose on a short pass for a 28-yard TD reception, while Latavius Murray (10-35) didn’t do much but the team also didn’t have any RB green zone rush attempts. Murray did seem to lose some receiving work. Johnson’s role could be construed as indicating Leonard Fournette is not a huge threat; the idea would be they wanted to find someone else to take some of the Murray routes, but if Johnson is doing that fine even a couple weeks after the team brought Fournette in, then rumors Fournette would take over a lot of work seem unlikely to pan out.
Stefon Diggs (8-4-27) took a bit of a backseat a week after his brother more or less claimed on social media Josh Allen only got good because of Diggs. Am I implying Allen and the Bills were trying to prove a point that Diggs isn’t necessary to their success? No, not really, but I mean I’ve argued for crazier things. Diggs still having 8 targets here refutes my point anyway.
Dalton Kincaid (7-6-46) looked great, while Khalil Shakir (4-3-115-1) got deep for an 81-yard TD. Gabe Davis (0-0-0) ran a route on 100% of dropbacks and didn’t earn a single target. Probably the better argument about the Diggs and also Davis stuff is the Bills wanted to go away from the top Jets’ secondary options. Star slot CB Michael Carter was out, which might have led to some of the Kincaid volume, and then it’s perhaps not surprising Ty Johnson and Shakir had the other big plays, as the Bills took what was there for them rather than trying to beat the Jets’ strengths.
Zach Wilson was horrendous, and Garrett Wilson (8-2-9) didn’t have a catch when Zach was finally benched late in the third quarter. We didn’t see much from Tim Boyle — his first drive ended with a Garrett fumble, and then he threw an interception on a fourth down on the final drive, with a three and out in between. I’m not enthused, but I do think there’s potential for him to just be a better processor and get the ball out quicker in a way that makes the offense functional (it’s not going to be good, but maybe they can move the ball). Second-year TE Jeremy Ruckert (4-3-25) got a few late routes in the blowout, catching two of his three receptions from Boyle on the final drive, but that was enough for him to lead the Jets’ WRs and TEs in receiving yards in this game. If you’re looking for anything notable, Xavier Gipson (2-1-7) ran routes on 85% of dropbacks, a season high for him.
Breece Hall (10-23, 6-5-50-1) was the actual team leader in receiving yards, including taking a short pass to the house. His rushing efficiency woes continued, but on the first snap after the QB switch he ripped off a 14-yard gain (they went pass-heavy after that). It’s possible that a QB switch at least opens up some running room. Rookie Israel Abanikanda (1-11, 2-1-5) only played in garbage time.
Signal: Xavier Gipson — 85% routes (not likely actionable, but worth noting)
Noise: Bills — two straight games of -7.5% PROEs or lower (not yet ready to call this a trend, but I’m acknowledging it)
Rams 17, Seahawks 16
Key Stat: Zach Charbonnet — 85% snaps, 71% routes, 9 HVTs (tied for most in Week 11)
Despite losing Cooper Kupp (1-1-11) to an early ankle injury, the Rams came from behind to beat Seattle. Kupp had a near miss where he was wide open on a corner route and Matthew Stafford just flat missed him, throwing way behind him. Kupp stopped and turned but just couldn’t quite get back to it. It was a decent counter for my arguments that QBs need to be willing to underthrow when WRs are wide open — I’m always incensed by the overthrows to open receivers — but this was bad, and I would just argue there are a ton of underthrows to wide open receivers that they can actually get back to. Hell, a more agile WR than this version of Kupp could probably make that play, too. But I mean it was atrocious, and should have been a clear TD.
Darrell Henderson (6-1-1, 7-4-28) was cut Tuesday, but before that happened Royce Freeman (17-73) dominated the rushing work, including the green zone touches 5 to 3, despite Henderson’s TD. Henderson still posted double-digit PPR points despite only 29 yards, thanks to the short TD and four receptions — and he could have another TD through the air but it was called back by OPI for blocking downfield before the catch — so his fantasy production led to some confusion on Twitter about the cut. As we’ve talked about here for some time now, Henderson’s production was pretty hollow, and he gets cut having averaged just 2.4 yards per carry on 46 rushes, while Freeman — over the same four-game span, behind the same OL and against the same defenses — was at a 4.3 YPC on 50 carries. We saw the passing of the torch in this one, as well, with Freeman taking a lot more work. But Kyren Williams will almost certainly be back off IR this week, and presumably without limitations given how quickly the team moved on from Henderson. Also, since Freeman has really struggled to earn targets, Kyren’s a great bet for HVTs even if there’s something of a split, which should help any concern about how quickly to get him back into your lineup.
Puka Nacua (7-5-70-1) had a nice day with Kupp missing most of the action, while Tutu Atwell (3-1-17) was quiet, and it was Austin Trammell (6-3-23) who was next in line for targets. Kupp’s injury doesn’t seem super serious.
Kenneth Walker (4-18, 1-1-(-2)) suffered an early injury, went straight to the tent, and was pretty quickly deemed doubtful to return. That left most of the game for us to see what Zach Charbonnet’s (15-47, 6-6-22) future role might look like, and it was fantastic. Charbs played 85% of the snaps, ran routes on 71% of dropbacks, and tied Jahmyr Gibbs for the most HVTs of the week with 9, including 3 green zone touches. The only concern was a pretty complete lack of yardage efficiency, but it’s nearly impossible to complain about this overall usage, and we have to lean into the small sample on the inefficiency side. For the season, he does have a 4.9 YPC, and while he hasn’t been great as a receiver, I’m hopeful we’re looking at something better than Rachaad White’s type of production. (But even if White’s production is the floor, that’s fantastic, and that’s what the HVT role suggests.)
Geno Smith got banged up in the third quarter and had to leave early, before returning for a desperation final drive after Drew Lock was, charitably, not great. Lock did have an alert throw down the seam to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6-3-40) and the rookie appeared unready for it; he had a rough outing in this one that also included an overturned catch on the sideline on what was very nearly a great over the shoulder catch (I didn’t love the overturn, as I didn’t think there was indisputable evidence the trail foot was off the ground when he caught it, but I’m biased). JSN did also have a sick high-point catch, and the downfield work gave him a total of 119 air yards, well above his previous season high of 70. His aDOT was 19.8. Every week it seems we’re getting these little positive notes about JSN, so don’t be fooled into thinking the breakout can’t come, because if anything we’ve been slowly building toward it. (Here’s a super blurry look at the back foot thing I mentioned, but we didn’t even really get a better shot. It wasn’t clear to me that right foot was off the ground when he corralled the ball, and his left was in, but the right did land on the line when it came back down.)
DK Metcalf (9-5-94-1) and Tyler Lockett (7-5-51) were in pretty typical roles, while no other Seattle WR or TE had more than 10 receiving yards in a concentrated game. That was another positive note for JSN — this was another game where he concentrated volume with the main two WRs, and everyone else was less involved.
Signal: Kyren Williams — good to go off IR given Darrell Henderson’s release (Royce Freeman has done nothing in the passing game, so if there’s a split at all, Kyren would seem to have the HVT advantage); Zach Charbonnet — 85% snaps, 71% routes, 9 HVTs (if he gets used like this again, the floor is Rachaad White type production if he isn’t super efficient, and the ceiling is elite); Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 119 air yards (previous season high was 70)
Noise: Cooper Kupp — 1 catch (early injury, only 24% routes, Stafford also missed him on a wide open long TD opportunity)
Broncos 21, Vikings 20
Key Stat: Broncos — 233 air yards (most since Week 3)
Denver got a late win in a pretty fun Sunday Night Football game, where Russell Wilson and company actually pushed the ball downfield a little bit. The Key Stat above notes the Broncos had their most air yards since Week 3, and it was actually more than they’d had in their past two games combined, as well as only their second game over 200 in that span of seven games. I’ve seen some positive notes on Russ and how well he’s playing, and I both think that’s worth noting and also needs to come with a pretty big asterisk in that a ton of it really is this air yards stat, and how it’s a RB-focused offense where he needs to be able to then play-action off that and hit the throws downfield every now and then. And he’s done that! That’s very notable. But I would say I’m more interested in what this says about Sean Payton than Russ, personally. Payton still understands some cheat codes for manufacturing offense efficiency, namely the effective ways he uses the RB position in the passing game to stay on schedule, which is a really great fit for the modern defenses that are trying to take away explosives. It might even be said that this is an interesting offense down the stretch, but I’m not sure I’m there yet, outside the RBs.
Courtland Sutton (5-4-66-1) does keep scoring TDs through, while Jerry Jeudy (7-5-58) had his flashes but also had a huge TD drop in this one. Marvin Mims (3-2-12) also had an explosive play on a WR screen called back by a hold. But what’s funny is I knew I was going to highlight the increase in WR production in this writeup, and then I went and looked at the box score to find Sutton with 66 yards and Jeudy with 58 in a game that felt like a breakout for the downfield passing attack. That’s the whole point I’ve been trying to make, is that even if they start to build off this with downfield passing, there’s a long way to go. But maybe.
Javonte Williams (11-37, 2-2-16) was down to a season-low 11% routes, which was a huge negative note for him. Early in the game, he had a catch from an inline TE alignment that I thought was pretty cool, but rather than this game being a positive about his receiving potential, it’s a pretty substantial negative. Samaje Perine’s (1-7, 7-7-60) normal role cuts into Javonte’s receiving, but Jaleel McLaughlin (1-1, 5-5-14) saw his routes tick up a bit, as well, and they were out there for a combined 12 receptions. More than half (14) of Russ’s completions (27) went to RBs. But for Javonte, this trends toward the rush-downs-only RB role that Sean Payton’s old Saints’ offenses had, which was often occupied by guys like Khiry Robinson, and is not good for his value. Despite clearly having the most touches, Javonte was third on the team in HVTs. He did at least maintain the TD equity with both green zone touches.
Joshua Dobbs played well, but did mix in a few tough throws. The Vikings were very run heavy by their standards at a -3.3% PROE, posting a season-high 36 rush attempts. T.J. Hockenson (7-4-55) and Jordan Addison (6-3-44) led in targets, but Brandon Powell (4-3-32) and Josh Oliver (4-4-47-1) were more involved than we’d like to see. K.J. Osborn (2-1-7) was quiet in his return. It’ll be interesting to see how Justin Jefferson shakes things up, but the way things are trending, we might not see him next week either, as the Vikings have a bye the week after that.
In defense of the PROE, I thought both Vikings’ RBs looked great in this one. Alexander Mattison (18-81, 2-1-(-1)) did lose a costly fumble, but he posted one of his best rushing days of the year, while Ty Chandler (10-73, 4-4-37) benefitted from a long run on a fake FG but was also efficient on his normal runs and in the passing game, going for 110 total yards. Mattison was the clear lead back in terms of snaps and routes, but the team did talk about a 50/50 split and Chandler did enough with his role that you have to feel like this could evolve to where Chandler’s usage increases.
Signal: Javonte Williams — 11% routes (season low, only 2 receptions out of 14 total for team’s RBs, not a good note for his upside despite all those Team HVTs)
Noise: Vikings — season-high 36 rush attempts (matchup- and script-related, but we did see good things from both RBs, and I expect both to be involved going forward)
Eagles 21, Chiefs 17
Key Stat: Eagles — 54 plays, 22 pass attempts, 238 yards (all season lows)
When I tried to talk through the full range of outcomes for the Eagles’ offense this year — and especially that idea that they would throw more as they were pushed more — it was games like this that I was trying to articulate. Philadelphia wound up throwing just 22 times, a season low (but they’ve also thrown 23 times in two different games), as they leaned on the run and also just weren’t very efficiency offensively (which one of my points about them blowing teams out was it was always good that the Eagles scored points in those games, and did efficient stuff, even if it all came early). Philly did still come away with the win in this Super Bowl rematch, in part because the Chiefs also really struggled offensively, and also in part because of the horrendous punt decision from Andy Reid that went for a touchback and wound up netting only 19 yards. That’s more or less the length of a personal foul penalty, which was apparently enough field position to voluntarily take Patrick Mahomes off the field on fourth-and-4. Egregious.
Jalen Hurts threw for just 150 yards, but he did rush for two scores to salvage his fantasy day. Unfortunately that didn’t salvage anything for the receivers, or rather A.J. Brown (4-1-8), as DeVonta Smith (8-6-99) did post a really strong game. Smith had a 41-yard reception down to the 1-yard line in a key fourth-quarter moment, which was great to see but also a bit frustrating in that it was slightly underthrown and that cost Smith the TD. No other WR or TE on the team had more than 10 receiving yards, and while Julio Jones (2-2-5) was in a route on 75% of dropbacks, he didn’t look like a guy who is likely to make a fantasy impact.
D’Andre Swift (12-76-1, 3-3-31) was ultimately the focal point, dominating the backfield out of the bye and looking explosive after some time off. Swift’s rushing efficiency had been under fire after he’d failed to eclipse 4.2 yards per carry in any game for six straight weeks, but he was way up at 6.3 in this one, and it was also his second-most efficiency receiving game on a per-reception or per-target basis. Kenneth Gainwell (1-1, 1-1-4) got just two touches, while Boston Scott (2-8) chipped in two, as well.
Any hope the Chiefs would have sorted their WR rotation out a bit post-bye seemed unfounded. We did see one of the lowest route shares of the year for Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-0-0), who still managed to go full MVS with a massive drop on a deep shot at the end of the game, which could have put the Chiefs ahead in the game’s final minutes. No. 2 TE Noah Gray (1-0-0) also moved down to a season-low 31%. But Skyy Moore (2-1-4) rebounded from his season low in Week 9, their last game before the bye, and Rashee Rice (5-4-42) was down to his lowest route percentage since Week 6. Mecole Hardman (2-2-12) and Kadarius Toney (2-2-12, 2-14) — while still not really involved — were both up from season and four-week averages. I mean this is one of the least discernable routes tables I’ve ever looked at.
I very much understand the NFL is chaos, but stuff like this makes me realize I take for granted the trends that do exist for most teams. It could be even more chaotic! What if all the teams were like the Chiefs?
Justin Watson (11-5-53-1) is the one name I didn’t mention above, and he continues to see a solid role and then — importantly — a lot of volume. His 11 targets and 142 air yards gave him a 0.68 WOPR that easily led the team, well ahead of Travis Kelce (9-7-44-1). Kelce had a tough fumble and also tough drop in this one, while Watson had multiple tough drops (none were as bad as MVS’s). Kelce will be fine, but I hesitate to talk up Watson too much after this performance, despite the obvious positive underlying notes. (And as a whole, the Chiefs’ WRs stink, and Mahomes deserves better, but I still don’t understand how Rice’s role hasn’t grown, as so clearly their best chance to develop something this year.)
Isiah Pacheco (19-89, 1-1-2) had a solid rushing night, while Jerick McKinnon (1-7, 3-2-8) filled his role. Pacheco continues to have a bit of a TRAP back profile, which really limits his range of outcomes, i.e. even in a good game like this one, the scoring may not be great.
Signal: D’Andre Swift — 6.3 YPC, 10.3 YPR (there were some efficiency concerns going into the bye, so nice to see him look very explosive in first game out of it); Justin Watson — 11 targets, 142 air yards, led WRs with 67% routes, also had some drops issues that might hinder the development of this role (it’s tough to find WR upside at this point, and he’s worth an add in deeper leagues)
Noise: Eagles — 54 plays, 22 pass attempts, 238 yards; A.J. Brown — 1 catch
Biggest Signals
Vaguely ranked in order of relevance/importance (which includes whether it was surprising and size of impact; if it’s important but just confirmation of something we knew or thought we knew, it ranks a little lower; new information and top waiver adds rank near the top).
Zach Charbonnet — 85% snaps, 71% routes, 9 HVTs (if he gets used like this again, the floor is Rachaad White type production if he isn’t super efficient, and the ceiling is elite)
Tank Dell — 0.92 wTPRR over past three weeks (second in NFL), has also been highly efficient (should only keep earning work, and is a true breakout star)
Justin Fields — 14 designed runs (most in a game in his career, huge for upside)
Isaiah Likely — strong TE pickup, should be in line for significant role, although range of outcomes is wide
Keaton Mitchell — earning more work at Justice Hill’s expense, but Gus Edwards is still entrenched and Hill isn’t going completely away (Mitchell’s feeling more like Jaleel McLaughlin than De’Von Achane, within his range of outcomes)
Jayden Reed — routes back up to 75%, got 3 end arounds and broke one for a TD (earning more work, and even unique touches, which is all a positive sign)
Justin Watson — 11 targets, 142 air yards, led WRs with 67% routes, also had some drops issues that might hinder the development of this role (it’s tough to find WR upside at this point, and he’s worth an add in deeper leagues)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 119 air yards (previous season high was 70)
Kyren Williams — good to go off IR given Darrell Henderson’s release (Royce Freeman has done nothing in the passing game, so if there’s a split at all, Kyren would seem to have the HVT advantage)
Brian Robinson — 78% snaps, 67% routes with Antonio Gibson out (both were season highs by at least 18 percentage points; won’t likely stick when Gibson is back, but a big usage note if Gibson misses anymore time)
D’Andre Swift — 6.3 YPC, 10.3 YPR (there were some efficiency concerns going into the bye, so nice to see him look very explosive in first game out of it)
Rachaad White — 6.25 HVTs per game over past four, 5.4 for season (gives him a really nice PPR floor even when he’s not efficient, like in this game)
Javonte Williams — 11% routes (season low, only 2 receptions out of 14 total for team’s RBs, not a good note for his upside despite all those Team HVTs)
Tony Pollard — was efficient, looked more explosive
D’Ernest Johnson — No. 2 in normal flow of game, Tank Bigsby basically only played in garbage time
Travis Etienne — two lowest snap shares in past two weeks (potentially played such a heavy role earlier due to Bigsby’s struggles, but being spelled more by Johnson now)
Devin Singletary — having success on a level Dameon Pierce was not, making it difficult to go back to the Pierce as clear No. 1 roles once Pierce is healthy
Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt — a little closer snaps split, was more of a true 50/50 with Hunt at a season-high 45% snaps
Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders — back to 50/50, with Hubbard running a few more routes, looks like your standard split backfield going forward
Jaylen Warren — some strong, physical runs en route to a massive 129-yard rushing day on just 9 carries (continues to solidify himself as a key piece and maybe argues for being the offense’s focal point, though this is also still 50/50)
Jahmyr Gibbs — 9 HVTs (mostly split work with David Montgomery again, except Gibbs again got more passing downs, so while both had 14 touches, Gibbs had the clear HVT lead; this is essentially the roles that ADP implied in August)
Quentin Johnston — another really underwhelming performance with a key drop despite injuries to several other WRs (he’s not ready to produce right now, which doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll never be, but it’s hard to overstate how rough of a look this has been given the opportunity that’s been available to him)
Michael Mayer — 70%+ routes in 3 of past 4 games (Austin Hooper down to season-low 23% in this one)
Joe Mixon — could be in line for some really high-touch games given his big snap share, the QB switch, and Bengals’ PROE to date, which should shift back to more neutral or even run heavy (Mixon’s touches have been held back not by the size of his role, but the Bengals’ pass lean)
Jameson Williams — season-high 66% routes, big TD late, might be earning some more trust
Khalil Herbert — healthy enough to handle 18 touches
Saquon Barkley — 50 air yards, receiving efficiency (previous season high was 6 air yards, and while it won’t stick every week, it was great to see the creative usage and splash potential as part of his range of outcomes)
Dontayvion Wicks — continues to be productive on a limited role (more of a deeper dynasty league Signal than anything actionable in shallower redraft leagues)
Cardinals — very concentrated routes percentages with top guys
Biggest Noise
Vaguely ranked in order of relevance/importance.
De’Von Achane — 2 touches, 5 yards (only played 3 snaps before being removed, seemingly for precautionary reasons)