Man, I labored over that NFC West piece, and for some reason wound up with a ton of words for the Cardinals and Rams compared to the far more interesting 49ers and Seahawks. It’s time to wrap these team previews up and get to my absolute laundry list of other work.
Here’s what we’ve covered so far:
High no-huddle rates and potential play volume bumps in the NFC East
Exciting up-and-coming offenses and several late-round TE plays in the AFC East
The impact of rookie QBs in the AFC South
A few of my most-drafted players in the NFC South
Lofty expectations for every offense in the AFC North
Why the Lions and Vikings are so fun for fantasy football in the NFC North
Cooper Kupp’s absurd 30 games with Matthew Stafford in the NFC West
I went over receiving weapons on a team-by-team basis in my TPRR looks earlier this offseason, and those are still very relevant pieces that I myself circle back on quite often. I’ll reference some of that stuff in these pieces from time to time, but you can find more information there on receiving weapons.
And you can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Denver Broncos
Key Stat: Jerry Jeudy — 22.1% TPRR, 9.7 YPT, 2.18 YPRR (all career highs)
The Broncos were one of the hardest teams in the NFL for me to project this year, largely because Sean Payton’s and Russell Wilson’s histories don’t obviously mesh. Payton’s best offenses with Drew Brees tended toward being pass-happy and faster-paced, and used the short pass as an extension of the run game, racking up RB targets. Wilson teams have typically tended toward being slower-paced, and he likes to hold the ball in the pocket, ultimately carrying a higher aDOT with limited RB targets. But it was interesting to dig into the Saints with late-career Brees, where the pass rate got pretty low and the pace slowed. Payton likely felt he needed to protect and/or hide his QB a little more, and that very much might be the case again in 2023. Hearing the initial comments this offseason, it felt like Payton was setting the stage for an exit from Wilson as soon as possible. Now, one of the reasons him taking this job was odd was that Wilson has contract guarantees through 2024. But the way things shake out, $37 million more will become guaranteed for 2025 at the beginning of next year’s offseason. In other words, the Broncos have to make a decision after this year whether they want to be on the hook for a ton more money the year following next. For Payton, his new team is already spending a considerable amount of the cap on Wilson over his first two years in Denver, and that decision after 2023 will be about whether his third year is similarly weighed down. There’s absolutely something to be said that Wilson playing well is the best option here, and Payton and the Broncos will prefer that to other options. I’m starting to get interested in that, and with the weapons they have and Payton probably providing more structure for Wilson, I’ve definitely taken my share of Wilson in Underdog stacks. From a team perspective, if Wilson bounces back, you’re probably fine paying him and building around him. But if he doesn’t play well, I do think there is real bench risk down the stretch, sort of to telegraph the tough offseason decision.
Most of the stats here are tough to read into too much, sort of in the way that last offseason it was tough to care too much about what happened in the Urban Meyer situation the year prior for the Jaguars. Nathaniel Hackett seems like a good dude, and you have stuff like Aaron Rodgers defending him and bringing up his character and how he’s a family man, but that doesn’t change the fact that he did a terrible coaching job last year, including misunderstanding basics of play-calling and clock management that were readily apparent to casual fans in a way that makes it seem very likely there were big mistakes being made in the details behind the scenes, as well. And that’s a coach’s job, the details, and again that’s what he publicly messed up repeatedly in ways that 10-year-olds playing Madden wouldn’t, in terms of some of the timeout-related stuff and those things. There’s no sugar-coating that. So when Payton says things like he can’t judge certain players based on the film he’s watching from the year prior, because it’s not clear what the objectives of some plays even were, I’m inclined to believe that.
To dig into the numbers a bit, Wilson’s efficiency dropoff was wild. His passing TD rates were up to or around 6% for years, then at 3.3% last year. Completion percentage and YPA were both five-year lows. He probably didn’t forget to play football overnight. Given what he’d done in his past, it might be fair to comp him to Deshaun Watson, who the market is far quicker to buy back into returning to top form. Wilson is an example of a similar player with past high-end results, where if he’s back, he could definitely be back in a big way in a Payton offense with these weapons.
Jerry Jeudy played one snap in one game, 38% of the snaps in the game he returned, and 14% of the snaps in a third game. That’s why of the stats that we did get, he looks a lot better in per-route-run stuff than per-game. Jeudy’s YPRR has climbed from 1.66 as a rookie to 1.85 in Year 2 to 2.18 last year, where he posted his best efficiency despite the offensive issues, and was also at a career high 22.1% TPRR. I’m pretty in on his profile at cost, but the situation is scary enough that he’s more of a solid pick than one I’m taking everywhere. With the way drafts fall, though, he’s often the last of a tier for me in the fourth round.
Conversely, Courtland Sutton posted career-worst efficiency, although he did stay in the same TPRR/wTPRR range he’s been in for most of his career. A downfield weapon in an NFL increasingly trying to take those players away, the market is in my opinion correctly skeptical of him. But while he lands on the fringe of the WR Window and some see a dusty veteran that doesn’t have upside, I see a dude that was working back from an ACL in 2021 and then his poor 2022 could have been situation-related. There’s at least excuses to be made, and with Tim Patrick unfortunately out of the picture now, I’m willing to take some chances on Sutton at his cost, as well.
I’d initially written in my projections that the WR room was deep with both Patrick and KJ Hamler as notable names. Those guys are both out of the picture, but it’s still worth noting Payton has brought over three of the top six guys in receiving yardage from his last Saints team (Marquez Callaway, Adam Trautman, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey), plus a depth running back in Tony Jones, Jr. Their familiarity with Payton’s system could complicate things somewhat, but that’s all just to briefly pump the breaks before saying that Marvin Mims is one of the easiest rookie WRs to buy into in the double-digit rounds. His production profile was very strong, and the Broncos took him with the final pick of Round 2.
Additionally, Greg Dulcich is an upside TE play, and obviously you get into a situation pretty quick where if you’re buying multiple pieces of the passing game, you’re kind of in on a Wilson rebound. But that’s why I mentioned some concerns at the top, and it’s helped me stay measured in my exposure to each of these guys, despite now seeing this as a passing game where a lot of individual profiles are indeed worth betting into. If we get a Jacksonville 2022 type rebound, you could wind up with a lot of nice hits in the way Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram all provided value to 2022 drafters. You could also see Jeudy or Dulcich being bigger hits (Dulcich largely because of the lower bar at TE), and Mims being one of the those big late-season rookie hammers if injuries or other uncertainty clear the way for him somewhat. That’s probably the biggest argument against taking Sutton, is his biggest upside scenarios are somewhat harder to envision relative to more exciting breakout profiles.
The early Dalvin Cook rumors made a lot of sense because this team really doesn’t have much depth — the aforementioned Tony Jones and then Tyler Badie and 2023 UDFA Jaleel McLaughlin are the only RBs on the roster behind the main two. McLaughlin has actually gotten a little buzz, and at this point I’d expect him to make the team and be a name to watch, but the lack of acquired depth also has to be seen as a positive note on where the team feels Javonte Williams is with his rehab. Williams’ injury has been discussed as being a multi-ligament tear, and compared to J.K. Dobbins’ rehab from 2022. But Dobbins had complications and ultimately had another surgery in-season; it’s not a guarantee that Williams will run into the same issues. To that end, Williams didn’t even begin camp on PUP, which was a very bullish sign. Samaje Perine is also still very draftable as the main backup to this shaky situation, and I’d expect Perine’s role to be larger early on, even if Williams is able to be ready in September. I would love to see Perine fall a bit from where he’s gone on Underdog most of the offseason (in the pick 100 range) now that news on Williams is a bit more positive, but maybe I feel that way because I’ve already taken a decent amount of him and like some of the other backs in that range as well, so it’s been easy to go different directions in my drafts (which isn’t necessarily a commentary on Perine’s potential, just on draft mechanics, because that’s a great RB range). But Williams is an obvious value right now. Word from camp is this team might lean toward the run-heavy side of things, which is an obvious plus for both backs in a thin depth chart. I think analysts in 2023 are too quick to identify where players might or might not be going in different circumstances, but Williams is one where it does feel very clear that without the injury — or even more accepted optimism about the rehab — he’d be going several rounds higher. And I do think that climb is going to happen, especially in higher-stakes stuff, but Williams is a name to earmark as a risk/reward pick in more casual leagues where you can potentially get him at a cheap enough cost to make him a no-brainer gamble.
Signal: Jerry Jeudy — strong TPRR profile growth in a rough offensive environment in 2022; Javonte Williams — much better profile than his ADP suggests, clear concern about injury from the market but he did not start camp on PUP and the team has not added depth at the position, both good signs (could be someone who winds up with a big gap between high-stakes ADP, where he’ll rise, and casual leagues, where he could be a real nice value and target); Samaje Perine — nice play with likely standalone value even if Williams is ready (also benefits from lack of RB depth); Marvin Mims — strong double-digit round rookie WR bet with Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler both out of the equation
Noise: Broncos — basically everything about the 2022 Hackett regime and what to expect from Russell Wilson (anything from Payton helping turn this offense around entirely to it being a house-cleaning type of season where Wilson is just dust and Payton sets up the Broncos to move on after the year is in play); Courtland Sutton — career-worst 7.6 YPT, only 2 TD on 109 targets (willing to write off the poor efficiency a bit based on the way defenses played the Broncos and how Hackett’s offense struggled in multiple ways)
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Stat: Isiah Pacheco — 170 carries, 14 targets (did add 7 targets in playoffs)