Offseason Stealing Signals, Bears & Jaguars
Year 2 for exciting young coaches with deep skill position groups
Ben Johnson and Liam Coen were the hot names in the coaching cycle last year, and both led their new franchises to the postseason in what can only be described as very successful first seasons.
One of the things we saw from both of these teams in 2025 was the progression of an offense throughout the long 17-game season. I’ve talked about how full-season projections can be difficult because you’re dealing with a moving target. Player roles can change, based on who is available and what is working. I’ve been writing a ton about subpackages and rotational usage, and the further we get into this era of professional football, the more I think smart teams are going to build redundancies and intentionally plan for this type of flexibility.
Let’s focus on the Jags’ WRs to drive this point home. Going into last year, Brian Thomas was a pick at the Round 1/2 turn in fantasy drafts, while rookie Travis Hunter was going in about Round 4 or 5. Some of what I was talking about at this time last year was Hunter’s receiving profile was good enough, and Thomas had taken a bit of a back seat to Malik Nabers at LSU, that we couldn’t write off that Hunter could just establish himself as the long-term No. 1 WR here, with Thomas being more of a secondary player and not the ascending Year 2 superstar his ADP suggested.
That wasn’t true about Hunter, and yet the concern implied about Thomas actually did prove accurate. The season did mostly start with these two as focal points, but Hunter wound up injured, and Thomas had some vague health stuff of his own, but also some weird effort-related narratives as he also never really fit with Trevor Lawrence. By midseason, the Jags had acquired Jakobi Meyers via trade, and then late in the year it was a fourth WR, Parker Washington, who was the team’s No. 1 producer in the pass game, pretty clearly. They’ve since extended Meyers but still have everyone else under contract.
They also extended tight end Brenton Strange, after they had gone ahead and drafted two new TEs this year, including a clear blocking TE and then probably my favorite underrated profile in this whole class, a Day 3 receiving TE that I frankly think is probably really good (Tanner Koziol). That incoming rookie TE duo feels like a pairing that could hold down that position for years if Strange wasn’t there, but like I said, the Jags also extended Strange, which is just another example of the redundancies being created here.
But the 2025 shifts at WR are the best note to this point of uncertainty from Week 1 through the fantasy playoffs. And it makes the Jags very difficult to project for 2026. The Bears aren’t a lot easier, with young players set to step into bigger roles and make a big impact. In both cases, we expect the offenses (and players within) to be good, so getting the usage correct could pay big dividends.
Today’s post will bring us to 20 teams covered. Links to the first 18, from most recent to oldest:
Raiders and Cardinals, including contextualizing low-scoring offensive environments with rookie QBs for elite TEs and potential superstar young RBs
Rams and Seahawks, including how sustainable the production is for two elite No. 1 WRs with massive per-route profiles
Buccaneers and Titans, including some harsh words about Mike McCoy he’s apparently read (see comments). Whoops.
Falcons and Colts, including long thoughts about the Colts’ new high-paid WR, Alec Pierce, and big opportunity in that passing game
Broncos and Bills, including how to think through tricky usage rotations for two good offenses
Vikings and Bengals, including why I’m high on Kyler Murray in the best situation he’s played in
Cowboys and Saints, including some cold water on high-priced fantasy stars in fast-paced offenses (plus a longer intro into the series)
Chiefs and Texans, including why my workload confidence for David Montgomery is abnormal for a Dead Zone RB
Packers and Panthers, including how team-building cues suggest confidence in Matthew Golden and Jonathon Brooks
Let’s get to the Bears and Jags.
Chicago Bears
Key Stat: Luther Burden — 2.34 YPRR, 23.5% TPRR, 10.0 YPT (307 routes, including playoffs), Colston Loveland — 1.97 YPRR, 23.0% TPRR, 8.5 YPT (461 routes)
Relevant Signals Quote: “Luther Burden posted a 2.69 YPRR in his rookie-year regular season, which is absurd. That number has to be respected. It’s also extremely important to note it came on 242 routes. Burden’s routes did scale up later in the year, and the Bears’ two playoff games were two of his higher-volume games. Notably, as the sample expanded, his YPRR fell to 2.34 with the postseason included. That’s still phenomenal, but obviously less so… There are multiple issues with the low volume of routes… Burden never did quite reach the routes shares (Colston) Loveland did, and there are other issues here, including the sample size thing where more games with a full role brought down Burden’s per-route data. As we know, players that are used situationally can see their per-route data juiced by an element where they are essentially coming off the field on plays that aren’t really designed for them… there’s a real-life issue where if the player can’t be trusted to do all the parts of the job, and he’s having to come off the field for certain looks, the stuff that he is doing becomes more predictable, and probably more importantly he’s less insulated to shifts in the whole offense as we start to see different subpackages being emphasized and all that stuff… in 2026, coaches need guys that can do everything, or — failing that — are just so dynamic that they can be that dude you sort of scheme around their limitations. And this is the axis where Burden sits, because he might just be that guy where Ben Johnson is willing to take the limitations to keep him on the field. He might also develop, but it’s worth noting there’s some of this in Burden’s prospect profile, too, where he… topped out at 367 routes in any of his three (college) seasons. Those lower routes numbers were backed by very lofty TPRRs, and pretty strong efficiency typically, especially in the sophomore year where he posted a 3.29 YPRR… not all routes are going to be equal, and being a full-time player is really the only way to fully validate a per-route number… One of the key Burden highlights (last year) that made the rounds on social during the season was essentially just a deep stop route where he basically just sold a vertical route 15 or 20 yards down the field and then slammed on the brakes, with the cornerback trusting the aggressiveness in the vertical part of his route enough to be blown several yards further downfield than Burden, who does have such easy agility that coming to a complete stop under control to make for a friendly target appeared effortless. It was a great example of a hard thing a good WR made look easy, because it’s never easy to get completely wide open down the field, but Burden was there, under control, made the catch, and then showed off the after-the-catch ability as well… Those are the moments that are why you would buy into Burden for Year 2 — we know rookie efficiency leads to volume, and it’s not hard to see a bigger role for Burden starting in Week 1. And yet, the specifics of the rookie year are still very interesting, at the least. Burden’s season high in routes was just 67%, so he didn’t have a stretch of games over 80% routes like Loveland did. Early in the season, he was very lightly used… Burden didn’t run a route on more than 30% of dropbacks for the first four weeks… he crested 40% routes for the first time in Week 11, when he really jumped to 58%. That it took that long maybe had more to do with the poorly-timed concussion (Week 8), and from that point forward he stayed above 50% in each of his final nine active games, playoffs included. And yet, when a guy is earning more work but is still capped below 70% routes, that’s at least notable. It’s also notable that his per-route stuff did decline when he played more… That’s in contrast to Loveland, for example, who I noted started ripping off 90-yard games when his routes peaked. So there’s a lot here… but I want to be clear there is a very simple analysis that says that (Burden’s) full body of work on 300ish routes as a rookie were fantastic. They were so good that you could add in 200 routes at a terrible 1.20 YPRR and you’d get to a 500-route sample just north of 1.85, and if I had a 500-route sample around 1.85 I’d be telling you this guy is probably a star. That’s sort of a weird hypothetical — in part because I’d actually probably prefer him to have run those 200 routes even if they dragged down his YPRR that much, because the usage limitation despite such strong per-route efficiency is really what’s so difficult to square when trying to project a Year 2 breakout commensurate with a lofty ADP that does project 500+ routes next year — but I’m trying to emphasize he did enough right in the 300 routes he did get for us to simplify it to a good and efficient rookie season with a big Year 2 breakout chance… I see Burden as one of the most important guys to get right for 2026 fantasy. The question is not whether there’s room for him to take off in Year 2, as he’s likely to get ball-in-hand opportunities after that was part of his profile even when he was in a limited role, and he posted 7.3 YAC per reception, a very solid number that supports what he had in his prospect profile. It’s about whether those “real WR” plays that obviously translate at this level will be too irregular… For 2026, Loveland will be a key part of the passing game, and we know Caleb Williams still needs to take another step forward with passing consistency, but there’s obvious Year 2 breakout upside for Burden, in the way that we hunt for.” (Field Tippers)
Bears Field Tippers pass-catcher analysis
Year 1 under Ben Johnson was a roaring success for the Bears, as Chicago went from a wasted season with a fired coach that made their rookie, franchise QB look like a potential bust, to an immediate division title over three teams who had all made the postseason that year prior. That Johnson got Chicago to their first division title since 2018 in his first year is an obvious win, but the development of the young offensive talent is the even more important win. As I wrote about in Field Tippers and quoted above, rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden both had strong seasons, and the sophomore season for Caleb Williams was a huge step forward, despite some meat being left on the bone for another step forward here in 2026. But in terms of predicting what’s next for 2026, there’s also an important note that 2025 was a small sample, and while everything does appear to be on an upward trajectory, we do see situations like this arise where there’s a huge initial bump, and it feels like we’ll find out the next year how far things will go, but instead things regress a bit. I don’t expect that here, to be clear. But we don’t have a huge amount of clarity on what we’re dealing with for any of the important aspects. What I can write up is everything we saw in Year 1, and why that’s so optimistic for Year 2 — and that’s what you’ll get for the rest of this team capsule, is pretty much pure optimism, and pretty direct optimism, because one of the main points I’m trying to make with this sweeping caveat is the nature of a small sample means I don’t have a lot of ways to refute that optimism.