Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC North
Offseason Stealing Signals, NFC North
Jordan Love, Caleb's plus weapons, Lions stars, and Justin Jefferson
We roll on with another division today, and it’s one of the most interesting ones in the entire league. I can make a case that all four of these teams are among the top 10 or so most interesting to analyze for this season, which should make for a great writeup.
One concept I want to highlight that will come up repeatedly, is that when I’m talking through some of the negative elements of projected volume, you don’t want to be all the way out on players for those reasons. You just want to understand that it impacts the type of bet you are making, and that it can hurt the ceiling projection. That said, sometimes the market prices this down enough that you have considerable upside if a teammate gets hurt and the projected volume logjam doesn’t materialize at all.
I wrote a long introduction to the value I see in this series as its own post, and a bit more intro stuff in Part 1 on the AFC South. As I detailed, in order to maximize the value add and time committed to writing this all up, my focus here will be on how I’m playing the different teams.
One key resource I’ll link to for each team is my March TPRR writeups, which cover the whole pass-catching group from last year. I’ll reference stuff from there from time to time, but not repeat huge concepts.
So far we’ve hit:
Stroud, Richardson, and another QB I’m on in the AFC South
The perfect setup for the Falcons and Zero RB targets in the NFC South
Broncos’ RB receiving, Chiefs’ passing game, and the AFC West
An emerging division with a ton of early-round WR targets in the NFC West
Three pass rate boosts and then that Arthur Smith guy in the AFC North
You can always catch my projections discussions with Michael Leone for each of these divisions over at Establish the Edge.
Chicago Bears
Key Stat: Caleb Williams — 27 collegiate rush TDs, 10+ both years as full-time starter
One of my hyperspecific team-level notes last year was I felt the Carolina Panthers had constructed one of the most poorly-conceived receiving rooms I could remember (mostly, I didn’t think the risks traded off well with the benefits of how those specific profiles might hit). This year, the line is the opposite, and it’s for the team Carolina will be linked to for years after the swap of No. 1 picks: There’s not a WR room I can easily remember that I’ve liked more, from a construction standpoint, than this Bears’ team. But that’s more of a “real football” take, because there are some challenges in fantasy football. I wrote about those in a bit of depth earlier today in a piece titled, “Why do you hate D.J. Moore?” Since then, I’ve heard from a few of the people who had asked about Moore that it was a convincing argument, and I’ve gone ahead and moved him back down a tier closer to where I do believe he belongs. I’ve also heard from others with more feedback, and it crystallized what I was trying to say about Moore and Keenan Allen. It’s a “long view” point, which is a phrase I’ve used to say we need to look further into the past than just the prior season. A big part of my notes is that despite Moore having some pretty bad QB play in Carolina (and me always being an apologist for it), I do think it’s a flaw in the analysis I’m seeing that is using his 2023 season as the benchmark, and then scaling up, when his 2.31 YPRR in 2023 was a career high. Now he’s never had particularly low YPRRs, and I would put him around a 2.0-2.1 YPRR actual talent, probably. But the 2.3 year last year would still not the baseline. Allen was at a 2.36 YPRR last year, and has had some other lower seasons, but in his prime was over 2.5 twice, and there’s also a point here about how YPRR isn’t fantasy points, and Keenan gets there more on the TPRR side than the YPT side, and targets and receptions are very good in PPR (in non-PPR, you’d lean back toward Moore’s yardage efficiency). These elements are why I love the construction of this passing game — Moore and Allen are so complementary while also both being versatile, and neither really has limitations as players, but Allen’s down-to-down consistency probably fills a minor hole in Moore’s game, while Moore’s ball-in-hand ability fills a minor hole in Allen’s. And then you add a versatile, do-everything rookie with a ton of upside, and you’re so, so able to be so, so multiple and dynamic offensively. But I will just note again the long view stuff on Keenan is just better than Moore, and more stable (the TPRR side is more stable), and that matters even when we account for age.
These elements are why Caleb Williams is a target and ranked aggressively in the tiers this year. I mentioned the Bears having a rookie QB in my writeup earlier today, but I’ve also used this as an example of “misapplying the aggregate to the specific,” where Williams is a better prospect than [insert average rookie QB here] and clearly, clearly steps into a better situation (most situations for rookie starters are bad; this one is in my opinion well above average; it’s better than a lot of veteran QBs have ever had). One specific Caleb take is he’ll run more than he gets credit for, and possibly especially in the red zone; in college, he had 10 and 11 rush TDs in his two years as the full-time starter, and 6 as a true freshman when he played part-time (only threw 211 passes). That’s despite 72 pass TDs the final two years, and 21 that freshman season, so it was an additive element, and arguably suggests a certain type of feel as a player in close to use his mobility in the short-field situations as needed (think how Josh Allen operates).
Regarding the WRs, probably the best No. 2 WR of Moore’s career was Curtis Samuel, or Robbie Chosen. He’s never really played in an offense with 3+ good downfield weapons. I’m not saying that’s the end of the world for him, and we do have to mention Christian McCaffrey, but working backward, the next highest WR or TE in targets for every year of his career was: Cole Kmet, Terrace Marshall, Chosen, Chosen, Samuel, and Devin Funchess. Perhaps more relevant, there’s been almost no WR3/TE presence ever — we’re talking Shi Smith and Jarius Wright and TEs getting 30 targets and being nonfactors. The question with Moore is whether he’s a legit alpha target-earner, and that is a fair question. He’ll likely be efficient even if he’s not, but where he goes, even the guys who have similar questions have easier paths to smashing despite that.
For much of the offseason I’ve felt Keenan Allen was a clearly undervalued target. I’m wavering very minorly because of some of this Moore talk, and it does need to be noted he’s changing teams and all that. Of course, Moore didn’t work with this QB or this offensive coordinator last year. It’s not easy to figure out how this all splits out, but one thing that was very clear in my projections was there is a target crunch, even when I project this team to have a slightly positive PROE and run a half play per game more than league average (rookie QB offenses often finish below average in both; even Stroud’s Texans offense, with him as a hit last year, was -2.2% PROE and only about a play per game faster-paced than average; OC Shane Waldron’s Seattle offenses were slightly positive PROE offenses but very slow, multiple plays per game below average). With what I think is reasonable projected pass volume, I had Allen at 127 targets, Moore at 118, Rome Odunze at 79, Kmet at 78 (had 90 in a low-volume offense last year with a solid target-earning profile), and Gerald Everett at only 25, which he’s been at 50+ for six straight seasons and Waldron and he have a history of working together not just in Seattle but also with the Rams. The Everett thing is a huge issue, because in Preseason Week 1 he played a ton, and people are very concerned about that for Kmet, but it also might foretell more two-TE sets than anyone wants. But the point of me listing all the targets I’m projecting was that my note is 127 for Keenan Allen feels low, 118 for Moore feels low, 79 for a rookie top-10 WR feels low, Kmet’s number feels low, and then as I’m alluding to even Everett’s number feels quite low. And I’m projecting an extremely low total number for any other WRs and TEs (I did set aside a fairly normal 18.5% for RBs, but even that could be higher). I will say that if I re-did this today — I haven’t updated it since finishing — I’d feel OK moving Kmet’s number lower to get Everett’s a bit higher, and I did move Kmet down the rankings a bit after Preseason Week 1. But I’m not sure I’d be able to find more for the WRs here, and one of my big philosophies has always been that you allocate targets from the most skilled at earning-them down. The alphas get theirs, kind of a thing. It’s also worth noting that one of the big reasons I’m playing all three of the Texans’ WRs is the contingent upside if someone where to miss time. That does exist in Chicago, as well, but as I wrote about this morning in that other piece about why I “hate” Moore, Caleb being in Year 1 versus Stroud in Year 2 does matter; Stroud’s extreme season-defining upside seasons are easier to envision, from a volume perspective. But the market’s giving you the room to play this through Caleb, and then Keenan and Odunze are both reasonably priced.
The answer for some people may be to write off Odunze in his rookie year, particularly given how JSN’s rookie year went with Waldron in Seattle. That’s a little tough for an older prospect who is said to be very polished in all the important ways. His production profile isn’t flawless, but the context around UW’s coaching change in the middle of his collegiate career, the 2020 season being a lost one, and the whole team returning for a shot at glory in 2023 (which I believe is a relatively valid reason for him not being an early declare) isn’t irrelevant. I’m close to the situation as a UW alum, and while I’m more objective with other guys, Odunze was the star of the team last year and can do no wrong in my eyes. It’s quite possible I’m missing the DJM outcome that includes Odunze being a total bust, at least for this year. If that’s not how Odunze’s year goes, though, you’re talking about him probably coming on over time and having some back-weighted production that makes the target logjam issue more pronounced in the money weeks. It’s not a perfect path for Odunze, but his redraft price is discounted relative to a top-10 profile, in this climate. Even if he isn’t super usable early, if he is as good as I believe he is — and if the connection with Caleb is where it is said to be, as two Pac-12 rookies who played against each other in college — he could grow into a pretty major issue for the top pass-catchers. I want to be in on this passing game, and Odunze’s back-weighted profile at the cheapest cost is a nice option. Ultimately, what all these words I’ve written about the Bears truly say is the target stuff goes in the “Noise” section below — I’m not confident I’m right about anything, just that the market is probably overconfident in some of what it believes.
As I’ve noted, I did drop Kmet down the rankings. I wrote in the TPRR article how I really like his profile and thought he had a bit of a hidden 2023 breakout, where I was on him earlier in the summer as another young, contingency upside play. But it does seem like Everett is going to be a headache for him.
I’ve been asked a couple times about how I identified this RB situation as one I was really high on in the “Perfect Storm” article a while back, but don’t have them ranked particularly aggressively. It’s a fair question, and on some degree it has to do with continued research because of what I uncovered with Caleb’s rushing stuff, and on another it could be said my earlier writing was a bit inaccurate because I was mostly excited for Caleb and the WRs, but thinking, “OK, these RBs are all cheap, and I expect this offense to be great and bring them along.” But one big note there was I thought the Team HVTs might be strong, because they might run in close at a high clip, and I’ve started to worry about that, both because of the WR strength and because of Caleb’s rushing TDs. I wrote there could potentially be “a big emphasis on the green zone work” going to the RBs, and I’m a bit more worried about that, especially in a committee. Profile-wise, I still think D’Andre Swift is stepping into a great spot, got a lot of guaranteed money, and should get back to his plus receiving ability with some explosive-play potential. He’s a fine pick, definitely not a fade. And then my guess is Khalil Herbert is the secondary RB off Swift, but Roschon Johnson plays some on long down-and-distances, and is more like Swift’s handcuff, because of his pass-blocking ability and likely stronger passing-down role than Herbert. I do think Swift will play more on early downs than people realize, though; maybe not a ton, but I would expect him to lead the team in rushes, in addition to pretty clearly leading in RB receptions, so long as he stays healthy.
Signal: Caleb Williams — 27 collegiate rush TDs, 10+ in both seasons as full-time starter, great WR room for a rookie QB (strong mid-round QB bet); Cole Kmet — possible route crunch with Gerald Everett’s presence; D’Andre Swift — should see a meaningful bump in HVTs in new offense, have room to run, very reasonable mid-round RB option
Noise: Bears WRs — I’ve suggested the ADPs are wrong, and I might be wrong, but it’s hard to make a strong argument we know anything about how things will shake out (and in those situations I often like the cheaper options)
Detroit Lions
Key Stat: Amon-Ra St. Brown — 27.4% TPRR in 2023, 28.8% in 2022
I feel good the Lions will be a fast-paced team with plenty of offensive production, both because of the trends from two years of this coaching staff, and also because of their schedule and defense and how the market sees them setting up for plenty of shootouts. The issue just becomes what it looks like to have a first-round WR, a RB who was recently in the first round until a minor injury, and also the TE1.
Jahmyr Gibbs was a hyper-efficient receiving back in college, but not so much as a rookie with a 4.5 YPT. It’s worth noting his targets and YPT stabilized in his three-game playoff run, with 14 looks and a 6.7 YPT on those looks. If you added that in, his rookie season efficiency doesn’t look as bad, and frankly it’s a small sample and I would guess that average efficiency (about 6.0 YPT for RBs) is perfectly easy to see this year, and frankly the default expectation might be above average. He was also efficient as a runner, which is important when understanding how to frame the receiving stuff, and handled a big load when David Montgomery was out. Dealing with a hamstring injury right now that is reportedly not a big deal, Gibbs is sliding a bit but also adds some risk. We do see in his 21% TPRR versus Montgomery’s 14% that Gibbs was schemed some looks in the passing game within the offense, which also might elevate in Year 2. Ultimately, the key for Gibbs is whether he can flirt with leading the league in RB receptions, which feels plausible, although he has a lot of target competition at shallower depths in this offense.
Montgomery is perfectly fine — his receiving efficiency also sometimes leaves a little to be desired, but his rushing efficiency was strong last year, and his peripherals aren’t far off Gibbs’ own. This is a pretty clear two-back backfield where you’ll get some standalone value, and probably some type of split of green zone touches, but where the bigger Montgomery should get to work in there at the very least, with some potential to take a lot of them. And then if Gibbs did miss time, Montgomery would likely get a ton of work in a top-five offense. It’s not often we think about the older backs having contingent upside, but Monty pretty clearly has a solid standalone role that almost on its own justifies the ADP, and those contingent scenarios could be huge. He’s mostly an overlooked pick that I am aware is overlooked and nonetheless continue to not take enough of him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is an absolute superstar, and as I wrote in the TPRR post, his efficiency offset his slight TPRR dip in 2023. After ranking him in the middle of the first round last year when he was going at the Round 1/2 turn because his biggest competition was rookies, I do think he’s a bit overpriced this year now that those rookies have come on a little. That’s mostly because despite how good he is — very good — his role remains a bit underneath and requires really strong after-the-catch efficiency (which he’s had) and an elite level of target dominance (ditto). I still think he’s an absolute star, and he’s a really fun pick in formats like the Eliminator on Underdog, because of his stability. But I’m not sure his specific statistical upside really can threaten the elites at the position, in an era when the No. 1 WRs can consolidate so much volume, and those other guys in the top five might also accumulate 500 or so air yards more than ARSB can, at a similar target depth (you can see this in my projections). So essentially, if you were forward looking, then last year you could see where he could really dominate the targets and you were betting on that, but then this year, especially after what Sam LaPorta was able to accomplish as a rookie, you have to be somewhat concerned about him taking a step forward in Year 2, and while ARSB is still a superstar, there’s just a bit different of an outlook to his target dominance. I’m still very in where possible.
LaPorta is my TE2, while the market has him on TE1, for essentially the same reason. Last year, he became the first overall TE1 to not reach 200 half-PPR points since 2018, and he did that with 10 TDs, while no other TE in the league had more than 6. I do think LaPorta’s a stud, and he’s pretty clearly the dynasty TE1 if you’re in that format, but if he loses some TDs, and with the high end of the TE position looking ready to take a step forward, he needs to add quite a bit of volume to elevate his ceiling. He’s a “small miss, small hit” type that does have some huge contingent upside if ARSB were to miss time (so yes, some “big hit” scenarios), and that absolutely keeps him in the TE1 discussion and top tier. I just like the specific upside scenarios for McBride a little better, hence having him at TE1.
The other mitigating factor here is Jameson Williams, who has done almost nothing at the NFL level, but is having a good camp, and after having terrible vibes from a suspension to camp reports to team usage just a year ago, things have seemingly turned all the way around. He’s kept his head down, returned from his suspension, played hard — he had a couple key downfield run blocks late in the year — and that seems to have continued into this offseason as well, if the team is to be believed. By the end of last season, he had two touchdowns in their final game (caught one, and also had a long TD run, in the loss to the 49ers). He’s another Lion where the price is pretty rich, in this case because of a really tough profile so far — he’s got a long way to go to be relevant, and could really improve and still not be a star obviously — and there are so many other good players in this offense. But I do want to find ways to have bits of exposure to him, because it’s possible he makes a sizable impact. More likely, if he’s somewhere in the middle — say 800 yards and 8 TDs — he’s just making it difficult on ARSB and LaPorta to hit their potential ceilings.
Kalif Raymond seems to be viewed as a guy who plays the same role as ARSB, and wouldn’t be out there in a lot of sets with him, which is unfortunate, because he’s been efficient with 1.9+ YPRR seasons in the past two years, and with Josh Reynolds leaving, he’s the guy I’d love to see add routes. He’s still my preferred late-round Lions stack candidate for best ball, because I do think he’ll play some, and he’s likely quite a bit better — and more engrained in the offense — than whoever wins the other starting outside WR job (that seems to be very up in the air).
Jared Goff is a beneficiary of an offense with a ton of talent, that plays in a dome, and should score a ton of points. He doesn’t run at all, so the upside is limited a bit by that, but he’s a high-floor QB with some potential to really spike his passing stats so much that he’s a solid win from the later rounds. The complete lack of rushing does hurt his profile a bit, though.
Signal: David Montgomery — boring but nonetheless solid pick with contingent upside; Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta — both very solid picks, but both hurt each other’s true target ceiling to some degree
Noise: Jahmyr Gibbs — 4.5 regular-season YPT (should see a receiving efficiency bump); Jameson Williams — really rocky start to career (has done a lot right in the past year, seemingly keeping his head down and setting himself up to get his career going in a strong direction)