Using TPRR to identify early 2022 draft values

WRs and TEs to target in early best ball drafts

Feb 08, 2022

We’re back! I took January off with the newsletters, but I mentioned doing more offseason writing this year, and here’s our first big analysis piece. Early 2022 best ball drafts are rolling, and I’ve been getting the itch to look at guys I think will rise in value over the next several months.

It’s easy to say “this guy is going to rise” or similar, but I often see those comments attached to players that are already trendy, or already viewed favorably by the early market, which typically isn’t the class of player that winds up rising. In fact, those players often slip throughout the offseason as people see the merits of other options.

The types of players who consistently rise, in my experience, are those that wind up viewed more favorably as industry analysts dig in a little more and uncover optimistic underlying metrics relative to how the player’s season went. So it would more likely be a player viewed unfavorably now, but not just any player — one that has things going for him that people will latch onto as they get deeper into their offseason process, and projections start being released, and all of those types of things that sway mid-summer draft positions.

Of course, there is a whole lot of roster shuffling ahead of us, from free agency through the draft, and another way to look at things is to speculate on contracts and depth charts and get an understanding of what type of projected opportunity will be there. That is key for the running back position, where several players who may feel like strong options now will fall victim to the offseason, as happens every year at the volume-dependent RB position.

At positions like WR and TE, though, I’m often preaching to fade volume and target talent — we have a better idea of WR skill than RB skill, and there are more WRs who will get baseline opportunity in any given offense.

I use that term “baseline opportunity” because it’s often thought of as targets. That’s incorrect. Targets are earned, not given, and the baseline opportunity at the WR and TE positions is routes run. On any given play, there are five skill players on offense, with five ineligible linemen and a quarterback adding up for the 11 offensive players.

Those of you who are unfamiliar with the nomenclature for personnel groupings may have heard of concepts like “11 personnel” but not understood what they meant — the number in this case is really two independent integers that refer to the number of running backs and the tight ends out of the five skill players, with the unlisted players all being wide receivers. What I mean by that is 11 personnel — the most common in today’s NFL — refers to a package with one running back and one tight end, and then three wide receivers. Any package with two running backs will start with a “2” — so 20 (two backs, no TEs), 21 (two backs, one TE) — and any with two tight ends will end with a 2. The most common four-WR set is 10 personnel, meaning one back and no tight ends.

With 11 personnel being the most common in the NFL, there are frequently three wide receivers running routes on any given pass play. Some offenses lean a little heavier on two-TE sets, but basically all teams have at least two wide receivers running strong numbers of routes, and most have three, which creates a pool of nearly 100 options across the league that could theoretically be fantasy-relevant. This is a big reason people talk about WR being “deeper,” but the issue in that logic is again that WR is a position where skill matters a great deal. And when it comes to putting up the stats we care about — catches, yards, touchdowns — there is no more important skill than the ability to earn targets.

Targets have long been known to drive fantasy scoring for pass-catchers, but they frequently go misunderstood. People will talk about why a player didn’t get enough targets, or why a player who has relatively weak efficiency after earning the target — think stats like yards per target or touchdown rate — is getting fed so many passes. The answers harken back to this idea that targets are earned. We don’t have perfect ways to measure things like separation (stats do exist that attempt it), route consistency, and the trust a pass-catcher might have from his quarterback to make adjustments when the ball is in flight, or to win a contested catch battle in a one-on-one situation. But what we do know, and what is being increasingly understood in the fantasy community, is that we can look at different measures of target rate to capture the secret sauce that is all those elements.

And targets per route run (TPRR) is the simplest, most effective way to get at that skill. With a stat like TPRR, we don’t actually have to define the “why” of a player’s target-earning ability, because TPRR is a fairly stable stat that tends to give us a strong idea of a player’s ability, both from a floor sense and in terms of untapped upside. I wrote and spoke last offseason about Cooper Kupp having untapped upside on TPRR grounds, as he’d at times run fewer than a full slate of routes, but had always shown more TPRR upside than teammate Robert Woods.

Now TPRR is not the only explanation for Kupp’s amazing 2021, but for him and other players, it was a strong clue toward the type of ceiling we want to be chasing in any competent draft strategy that recognizes the key to consistently winning at fantasy football is WR depth in the first 10 rounds. If you’re a reader here, I assume you’re drafting in this way. And if you’re drafting in this way, you’re going to have redundancy at WR and be targeting ceiling with each pick at that position, aware that you’ll likely have some misses but with the goal of stacking breakout players at a position that can give you a massive edge relative to the market’s understanding of its value.

You probably see where I’m headed with this. I wanted to kick off the offseason with a look at TPRRs across the league, and try to get a jump on the WRs I think I’ll be interested in throughout the summer, even if their prices should rise. That’s one element of speculating on changing ADPs, is the question of whether that change would still make them a target or just overpriced. It’s always nice to draft players cheaper than where they wind up, but if you don’t actually want to be taking that guy at the rounds he elevates to, your cheaper draft picks are ultimately just ways you’ve diversified rather than providing you some kind of value. In other words, you’re saying he was properly priced before, and overpriced after, the shift.

What I want to target are players who I could see still wanting exposure to at higher price levels. That takes an understanding of how the market will unfold, how rookies will collectively rise once their draft capital and landing spots are known, and what are realistic prices for various players. All of that requires more than just an understanding of TPRR, but TPRR is the single best place to start.

A couple notes on TPRR and how I’m using it before we jump into the team-by-team discussion of 2021 stats.

For newer subs, I’ve written about this before, most notably here, with some team-by-team thoughts during the 2020 season here. and here during the 2020 season. I broke down the value of TPRR in this Twitter thread in the summer of 2020, arguing it should be more widely used than the more common yards per route run (YPRR), so it’s been awesome to see it adopted pretty widely by the fantasy community over the past two years. The Twitter thread explains some early thoughts on TPRR and, importantly, its year-over-year stability.
ADOT (average depth of target) is an important consideration, as it plays into target rate — it’s more difficult to post high TPRRs when you’re a deep threat, as downfield throws require the quarterback to hold the ball longer — as well as efficiency after the catch. Downfield targets are more valuable on average, so you need fewer of them to be fantasy-relevant.
I added air yards on a weighted basis to created wTPRR in 2020, which I wrote about here and then also here in 2021. The gist of it is earning a deeper target is worth more, but in the formula for wTPRR, targets are given about twice as much weight as air yards, which I drew from Josh Hermsmeyer’s work on his great WOPR stat that also combines targets and air yards. The formula for wTPRR is “((TPRR x 20) + AYPRR) / 12”, which scales the output similarly to WOPR. I’ll explain more in the specific player discussions below whether a player has a good or bad wTPRR, so no need to worry too much about this. It’s just here for anyone who might care. The Cliff’s Notes of wTPRR are this stat will help us with deep threats who might not have a great TPRR but their wTPRR pops a little more.
Lastly, I said TPRR is not the whole puzzle, just the most important piece. The other key factors are what a player does after a target is earned, as well as — to a lesser degree — some team factors, such as a player like Davante Adams who has done so much damage with Aaron Rodgers but there’s risk of a QB change this year, or whether a player is on an offense at risk of being run-heavy where total routes may be limited. When I refer to what a player does after the target is earned, I’m largely looking at stats like yards per target or RACR (which is essentially yards per air yards), as well as parts of the player’s profile dating back to their collegiate production that includes stuff like yards after the catch. These types of “efficiency” stats are less stable year over year, but for some players we have a good idea that their individual baseline is likely better or worse than the league average, so we can better understand their upside scenarios as a result. Think of this as why I love A.J. Brown even if his TPRR isn’t uber-elite — he’s a guy who clearly has a YAC baseline above league average, regardless of whether long-term YAC studies say we shouldn’t trust the stability of that metric.
There are other key elements to TPRR like coverage type, whether a player is the first read often, and designed plays around the line of scrimmage like quick hits or jet motion tip passes. We can surmise elite No. 1s are likely to be looked to earlier in a progression than a random No. 3 WR. We also must adjust for players who see a lot of designed touches in the passing game. I’ll add context on a player-by-player basis below, when necessary.

Alright, let’s look at some numbers. For each team, I’ll list the major players, with their TPRR first, then their wTPRR, then their total number of routes run. To give you an idea of how that will look, as well as a baseline for strong numbers in each stat, here are the top 20 players in TPRR for the 2021 season that ran at least 15 routes per game and played at least 10 games.

Davante Adams - 0.31, 0.75 (551)
Cooper Kupp - 0.31, 0.73 (625)
AJ Brown - 0.30, 0.79 (347)
Cordarrelle Patterson - 0.28, 0.54 (246)
Deonte Harris - 0.28, 0.70 (212)
Diontae Johnson - 0.28, 0.65 (614)
Tyreek Hill - 0.27, 0.69 (586)
Justin Jefferson - 0.27, 0.72 (623)
Alvin Kamara - 0.27, 0.47 (251)
Jarvis Landry - 0.26, 0.62 (321)
DJ Moore - 0.26, 0.67 (622)
DK Metcalf - 0.26, 0.70 (499)
Stefon Diggs - 0.26, 0.67 (642)
Deebo Samuel - 0.26, 0.61 (471)
JD McKissic - 0.25, 0.43 (210)
Braxton Berrios - 0.25, 0.53 (258)
Brandin Cooks - 0.25, 0.64 (528)
Russell Gage - 0.25, 0.61 (371)
Michael Carter - 0.25, 0.43 (220)
Elijah Moore - 0.25, 0.66 (308)

There are definitely some interesting names there, and you can see with the running backs how much lower their wTPRRs are because they don’t rack up many air yards. Take J.D. McKissic, for example, with his 0.43 wTPRR. I should probably omit RBs because target rate here is influenced by quarterback, offense, and role, as backs aren’t likely to be the but I figured I might as well leave them in there even as I’ll mostly focus on the WRs and TEs in my notes.

The routes below data comes from PFF while the targets and other data is from nflfastR. The Stealing Signals tool over at RotoViz uses SIS data, and they are a little more strict with their route classifications, lowering the total number of routes for most players and thus increasing stats like TPRR, so you’ll see some discrepancies between the specific numbers, and even some discrepancies between the below and PFF’s numbers. Most players move in the same direction so the conclusions shouldn’t be noticeably different as long as the data source is consistent through the specific analysis.

Because I wrote such a long introduction, and because I’ve been doing additional research while writing the below, I won’t be able to finish all the teams today, so I’ll shoot out what I have and then write up the remaining teams another day. That Part 2 post might come, I don’t know, maybe tomorrow, maybe later this week, maybe next. It’s nice to have some time.

Arizona Cardinals

Rondale Moore - 0.24, 0.43 (265)
Zach Ertz - 0.23, 0.52 (492)
Chase Edmonds - 0.21, 0.36 (253)
James Conner - 0.20, 0.34 (201)
DeAndre Hopkins - 0.19, 0.53 (325)
Christian Kirk - 0.19, 0.50 (544)
AJ Green - 0.17, 0.47 (530)
Maxx Williams - 0.17, 0.36 (99)
Antoine Wesley - 0.13, 0.34 (239)

DeAndre Hopkins played hurt in 2021, but it’s still shocking to see the nosedive his TPRR took. Keep in mind this is per route run, so it’s different than, say, target share, which may not account for games where a player played sparingly. This is only looking at the routes Hopkins actually ran, and he earned a target on at least 24% of his routes every season from 2017 to 2020, before falling below 20% in 2021. That was his lowest figure since his rookie season, and should be seen as a red flag for a player who turns 30 in June. On the flip side, Hopkins’ touchdown rate stayed strong, and he has a skill set that could age well for fantasy given he as as good as it gets in the NFL in terms of managing the boundaries, a key element for red zone success. His current third-round price tag in early Underdog drafts feels out of place, and yet his TPRR is concerning enough that he’s not someone I can see myself taking in the second at any point this offseason, when I think of the names I’m usually targeting there. It’s a question of opportunity cost, always. To be perfectly honest, he’s not likely to be one of my favorite third-round targets, either.

Much has been made of Rondale Moore’s limited role, including by me, but the 24% TPRR is very much something worth taking note of. He’s a clear example of one of my above points about adjusting for schemed touches, as well as another point about targets being easier to consistently earn at lower depths, and yet 24% for a rookie is phenomenal, and it came in a season where the consensus was that he disappointed. Moore’s wTPRR of 0.43 is not strong, and he’ll need to develop some air yards into his profile, but Christian Kirk is a free agent, and even if he’s back there are paths to Moore earning a larger piece of the pie in Year 2. We want to target second-year receivers with strong college profiles, even when their rookie seasons don’t scream “future star.” The upside scenario is so easy to see — Moore runs more routes while keeping the high-TPRR stuff around the line of scrimmage but adding some of Kirk’s downfield routes — that his current 10th-round ADP is an easy buy for me, and I can definitely see myself taking him higher depending on how the offseason plays out.

One note here on the first team that will come up in other places — I like to look at the RBs in relation to each other, and Chase Edmonds and James Conner posted nearly identical target-earning numbers this year. Given that, we should be a bit wary the strength of those numbers is in part due to the offense, though I do think both Edmonds and Conner were very good as pass-catchers this year.

Tight ends have lower baselines for usability, so Zach Ertz’s 0.23 TPRR is very strong.

Kirk, A.J. Green, and Antoine Wesley look like guys who benefitted production-wise from high numbers of routes run, though I think Kirk is vaguely interesting as a player overall. He’s going in the ninth round, and I would definitely target Moore in the 10th over him.

Atlanta Falcons

Cordarrelle Patterson - 0.28, 0.54 (246)
Calvin Ridley - 0.26, 0.66 (197)
Russell Gage - 0.25, 0.61 (371)
Kyle Pitts - 0.22, 0.56 (508)
Mike Davis - 0.20, 0.32 (288)
Olamide Zaccheaus - 0.15, 0.36 (353)
Hayden Hurst - 0.15, 0.32 (213)
Tajae Sharpe - 0.12, 0.30 (300)

Calvin Ridley posted strong target-earning numbers in his limited sample, but his YPT was atrocious relative to his career baselines, and he scored just twice. The human element is a big factor here, but I’m not concerned about his talent level based on these numbers, and could see him excelling again down the line.

You know about Cordarrelle Patterson’s great year, including the impressive air yards he added. Most RBs don’t get that kind of work, and for Patterson the downfield shots often came when split out in the WR position, not as a RB at all. He’s older, but the intriguing skill set remains as an eighth-round RB. I’m not sure if I’ll chase him, but there are worse RB picks to make.

Russell Gage set career highs, and is now going later than he did last year, presumably as the market anticipates more target competition coming in. I’m willing to flip my opinion on him after a strong 2021, at a 12th-round cost, but I do want to note he almost certainly saw a boost by a lack of target competition. What I mean by that is while TPRR is a great measure of skill, if the other four players in a given route are not very good, you can see your numbers inflated by necessity of the passes needing to go somewhere.

Kyle Pitts is the big name on this team, and the one main guy Gage was competing with. Pitts’ numbers were fantastic for a rookie TE who turned 21 midseason. Of course, he essentially plays WR. He’s an obvious Year 2 target but will also obviously be pricey — the simple fact that he plays a lot of WR but is classified as a TE keeps his floor high, with the only question being what his ultimate upside will look like.

Baltimore Ravens

Mark Andrews - 0.25, 0.62 (623)
Marquise Brown - 0.23, 0.60 (625)
Josh Oliver - 0.21, 0.49 (73)
Latavius Murray - 0.19, 0.31 (70)
Sammy Watkins - 0.19, 0.51 (264)
Tylan Wallace - 0.17, 0.36 (36)
Rashod Bateman - 0.16, 0.39 (409)
Ty'Son Williams - 0.16, 0.30 (74)
Devonta Freeman - 0.16, 0.28 (262)
James Proche - 0.16, 0.39 (125)
Devin Duvernay - 0.13, 0.29 (356)

The big question for the Ravens is passing volume going forward. 2021 was a huge divergence from other recent seasons, led in part by RB injuries and probably also in part by a philosophical shift.

Mark Andrews was a star, and he started to run a higher rate of routes, which was huge when mixed with a higher total number of passing plays. Always something of a part-time weapon prior to 2021, Andrews’ previous career high for routes was 350. He’d shown strong skills both with TPRR and also after-the-target efficiency, but jumping from 350 to 623 routes was the key to his breakout. I’d bet on the Ravens dropping back fewer than 600 times next season, so that’s the only cause for concern.

Marquise Brown was solid if not spectacular, while Rashod Bateman closed as frankly a bit of a disappointment in TPRR and wTPRR terms. I’ll still be willing to take some chances on Bateman, but adding in the above team-level notes, I’ll be cautious.

Given Baltimore’s propensity to utilize two-TE sets in the past, Josh Oliver could be a mildly intriguing guy at some point in the future, making him a reasonable deeper dynasty league stash. This year’s sample was small, of course, and the solid rates above only amount to 15 total targets for the season, so don’t go nuts. He’s not draftable or anything; it’s just a note to put in the back of the mind that he drew targets well when given some routes.

Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs - 0.26, 0.67 (642)
Isaiah McKenzie - 0.24, 0.51 (110)
Cole Beasley - 0.22, 0.48 (503)
Zack Moss - 0.20, 0.34 (164)
Gabriel Davis - 0.19, 0.54 (326)
Emmanuel Sanders - 0.14, 0.41 (506)
Dawson Knox - 0.14, 0.32 (506)
Devin Singletary - 0.14, 0.23 (364)
Tommy Sweeney - 0.11, 0.24 (109)

Stefon Diggs was far less efficient than in 2020, but his target rate was not much different, and was still well above any of his seasons with Minnesota. Given our long sample that suggests this guy is good at football, this is the first step for me in getting over the disappointment of 2021. Do I have a right to be disappointed in the PPR WR7 from this year? Maybe, maybe not. He was WR11 in points per game, and the 16.8 he averaged was definitely not worthy of his draft slot. But he was also still fine, not bad, and there were multiple points this year where I was highlighting missed opportunities, like that near-three-TD game where he only scored once because Josh Allen flat missed him in the end zone on one and underthrew a deep ball on another, when Diggs had a step or two. I’m not even going to look up what game that was. The wounds are still fresh. But a fair analysis would probably say 2021 is closer to Diggs’ floor than his ceiling at these target rates, on an offense that we know will throw.

Emmanuel Sanders was not good, and Gabriel Davis outplayed him most of the year, but these numbers don’t even include postseason games, where Davis obviously exploded with the first four-touchdown receiving game in playoff history. Davis was efficient as a rookie, but his TPRR was just average for a deep threat, so the gains he made in Year 2 to approach 20% while also being a guy who will get his fair share of air yards and is clearly a red zone weapon are all very big positives on top of the playoff explosion. In other words, people will probably point to his one playoff game as if his ADP is inflated by that at some point this offseason, and I’d argue there’s a lot more to his profile. The question will be whether he runs a higher share of routes, but it’s hard to imagine he won’t after coming up so big in such a key spot. That kind of thing matters.

I have to say I’m surprised Dawson Knox finished at a sub-15% TPRR, and he actually fell from a stronger 2020 while adding routes and per-target efficiency. That makes me more reluctant to pay an eighth-round price tag (in non-TE Premium, mind you).

I’m not sure what will happen with Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie, but these numbers suggest McKenzie has the skills to replace Beasley if needed, even if a large portion of his production came in one game. Beasley is notably 33 to McKenzie’s 26, with the elder Beasley having one more year under contract for 2022, but only $1.5m in dead cap if the Bills were to cut him, and a potential savings of $6.1m. Given how outspoken Beasley was about social issues off the field, and given the way the Bills seemed to deprioritize him late in 2021, it wouldn’t surprise me if they intend to release him, which could pave the way for McKenzie, although it would presumably also increase the team’s desire to add a WR. Were McKenzie to play a bunch more in 2022, I think you’d have to be optimistic given the offense and what Beasley has done in the slot there over the past few seasons.

Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey - 0.35, 0.64 (118)
DJ Moore - 0.26, 0.67 (622)
Chuba Hubbard - 0.24, 0.41 (152)
Robby Anderson - 0.18, 0.45 (623)
Brandon Zylstra - 0.15, 0.37 (170)
Tommy Tremble - 0.14, 0.32 (263)
Ian Thomas - 0.12, 0.26 (247)
Terrace Marshall - 0.12, 0.27 (250)

Christian McCaffrey is still an elite pass-catching back, and his 0.64 wTPRR is also way up there with some high-end WRs. Scroll back up to the top-20 players in TPRR to get an idea of where McCaffrey’s wTPRR fits in — even with air yards added, it’s well clear of Cordarrelle Patterson, and sits in the Diontae Johnson/Brandin Cooks range. For McCaffrey, his TPRR was well clear of his previous career numbers, and almost certainly should be expected to dip below 30% given he ran just 118 routes, but his efficiency as a receiver was very strong as well, and the dude still offers so, so much in the passing game, which is so, so important to RB ceiling. I haven’t yet decided whether I think he should still be ranked as the 1.01, but I confidently believe he is in a tier with Jonathan Taylor and no one else is close.

D.J. Moore’s impressive underlying numbers are on full display here, but after a hot start, we ran into the same issues as 2020, where his circumstances capped his ceiling. Moore’s TPRR shot up as he operated more clearly as a No. 1 over Robby Anderson, compared to 2020 where they were sort of co-No. 1s, but Moore’s YPT was below average for the first time in his career, and he again failed to score more than four touchdowns. It likely comes as no surprise to anyone who has been around these parts for some time that I will be all in on Moore again this year. One thing I will say is he’s going in the middle of the fourth right now, which is similar to last year, and one of the reasons I didn’t have as much of Cooper Kupp as I might have otherwise is that I took Moore in that range everywhere. I’ve learned that lesson before, and as sort of a personal thing rather than a piece of advice, I like being concentrated and having “my guys” on a multitude of rosters. But I’ll undoubtedly be at least a little more diversified as a result of the Moore/Kupp outcome this year. It’s impossible to not react to outcomes at all, and it probably was a mistake to not be more diligent in my exposures to other players I liked who just happened to be drafted around guys I wanted a ton of. That’s silly.

Terrace Marshall really struggled to earn volume as a rookie, and that’s not necessarily a death knell, but it’s a really inauspicious start to a career and long-term trends suggest the path back from this type of performance is rough.

Chicago Bears

Damien Williams - 0.27, 0.49 (86)
Jimmy Graham - 0.25, 0.58 (93)
Darnell Mooney - 0.23, 0.58 (613)
Cole Kmet - 0.19, 0.43 (499)
David Montgomery - 0.18, 0.32 (280)
Allen Robinson - 0.18, 0.47 (363)
Marquise Goodwin - 0.17, 0.44 (241)
Jesse James - 0.16, 0.36 (49)
Khalil Herbert - 0.15, 0.25 (105)
Damiere Byrd - 0.12, 0.29 (308)
Dazz Newsome - 0.08, 0.18 (63)

In every season of Allen Robinson’s career, dating back to his rookie season, he had posted a TPRR of at least 21%. But not only did his TPRR fall to 18%, his YPT was also an egregiously low 6.2, his second worst season and well below his career average. Still just 28 until August, Robinson’s not at an age that explains this type of play, and watching him this year it very much felt like an effort thing. Now he’s going in the ninth round of early drafts, after playing on the franchise tag last year and being a free agent. He’s not a fun pick, but a change of scenery could help, and if I was drafting a ton of teams right now I’d absolutely get some exposure to Robinson at this price. Even if he’s back with the Bears, which seems unlikely, there’s a new regime and the development of Justin Fields, which might help.

Assuming Robinson is gone, Darnell Mooney feels like the new No. 1, but it’s a tricky situation where Chicago is likely to add talent at WR. Mooney was very good in 2021, but I’m not chasing him up draft boards in the early offseason, because I suspect his price can’t get much more expensive. His situation can only get worse, and his numbers don’t pop so much that you’d prioritize him in the first five rounds when there are so many good WRs to target. This is the kind of guy that winds up a value for a month at some point in the offseason, then maybe gets hyped back up.

Cole Kmet had a solid second season in tough circumstances — a 19% TPRR is better for a TE than a WR — especially considering Jimmy Graham’s red zone role where the team was calling fades where Graham was the first and seemingly only read at times. Graham’s contract at Over The Cap lists 2022 through 2025 as void years, with dead money in each, which I just have to say it’s hilarious they are going to be taking a cap hit from him in 2025 given they originally signed him for way more money than he was worth. I mean this probably isn’t the worst contract in football given it isn’t huge numbers we’re talking about, but it’s extremely hard to fathom. Anyway, I have to cop to not knowing what the void year deal means — it’s pretty rare in my experience — but I’m assuming the obvious that it means he won’t be back with Chicago next year, which is good for Kmet.

Cincinnati Bengals

Chris Evans - 0.31, 0.59 (55)
Tee Higgins - 0.23, 0.61 (481)
Drew Sample - 0.22, 0.42 (67)
Ja'Marr Chase - 0.22, 0.60 (578)
Samaje Perine - 0.19, 0.32 (164)
Joe Mixon - 0.18, 0.30 (266)
Tyler Boyd - 0.18, 0.42 (523)
CJ Uzomah - 0.14, 0.28 (460)

Ooh, baby, will there be a lot of words spilled on these guys this offseason. Ja’Marr Chase is an obvious star, and you would expect this type of rookie season to foretell a monster Year 2. At the same time, Tee Higgins was right there with him in full-season TPRR and wTPRR, though it should be noted Chase has done more in the postseason and the way he closed the year suggests he has more room to gain from these full-season numbers as we head toward 2022. Still, Higgins is not a guy to forget about.

Tyler Boyd had posted TPRRs north of 20% for three straight seasons before dipping back down in 2021, but his efficiency was up — likely due to less defensive attention — and he’s a very affordable 10th rounder right now in a good passing game. He’s still under contract next year and into 2023, and there are some cap savings that could be had there but the Bengals have a ton of cap space and Boyd has been a key player on this team for some time. I expect he’ll be back, and he’ll probably be a nice value all offseason as people focus on Chase and Higgins and don’t look at Boyd’s profile on its own. When you do that, you see a guy who has shown good ability, is in an offense that should pass a good amount (even despite their run leans at times this year, as Joe Burrow will be healthier and they have so much passing-game talent), and that has paths to more production if either of the stars ahead of him were to miss time.

C.J. Uzomah had a solid season, but the numbers above suggest what I wrote about a lot this year — he can be in the right place at the right time when defenses forget about him, and he’s shown some after-the-target efficiency, but he’s not much more than a role player. For the record, I wouldn’t chase Drew Sample anywhere, but I left him in the above just to show in his limited sample he actually earned more volume than Uzomah, per route.

Chris Evans also had a very limited sample, and I also only included him by means of comparison, but the rookie was pretty good at earning volume when used in a third-down role, and that’s at least a minor footnote to Joe Mixon’s profile, along with Samaje Perine’s involvement, as having other competent pass catchers on the roster isn’t great when we know Mixon needs those routes.

Cleveland Browns

Demetric Felton - 0.31, 0.53 (68)
Kareem Hunt - 0.28, 0.47 (97)
Jarvis Landry - 0.26, 0.62 (321)
Harrison Bryant - 0.22, 0.55 (125)
Austin Hooper - 0.22, 0.47 (277)
David Njoku - 0.19, 0.44 (285)
D'Ernest Johnson - 0.18, 0.31 (137)
Rashard Higgins - 0.17, 0.45 (277)
Anthony Schwartz - 0.15, 0.47 (153)
Donovan Peoples-Jones - 0.15, 0.44 (387)
Nick Chubb - 0.15, 0.25 (172)

The Browns’ offense was just not fun for passing weapons, and if it looks like it could be fun next year, that’ll likely be as a result of changes. Jarvis Landry posted strong per-route numbers, which we’ve known about him, and I mean he’s a boring but still viable 12th-round option.

David Njoku is interesting as a free agent who was good despite limited routes, and if he were to leave, that might be a positive for Austin Hooper, though Harrison Bryant was right there with both of them and the Browns seem likely to have two solid target-earning TEs regardless of Njoku’s status.

I don’t understand it with Nick Chubb, but when you see Kareem Hunt as far ahead of Chubb as he is, and note that’s a continuation of a trend, and you even see D’Ernest Johnson solidly above him, you have to continue to question whether Chubb will ever have receiving upside. All signs point to no, which makes him mostly a stayaway where he always goes in the second round. He’s clearly an exceptionally talented runner, but you’re taking on risk with any RB pick in that range, and it’s just so unlikely he can be a league-winner at that cost without much receiving upside. On the flip side, in 0.5 PPR and with certain best ball draft strategies like hyperfragile, I do get mixing him into a portfolio of rosters. But again, not a good cost/benefit option as a “small hit, big miss” type of player.

Donovan Peoples-Jones probably isn’t what people want him to be.

Dallas Cowboys

Malik Turner - 0.31, 0.77 (51)
Tony Pollard - 0.28, 0.47 (164)
CeeDee Lamb - 0.23, 0.57 (535)
Amari Cooper - 0.20, 0.51 (523)
Michael Gallup - 0.19, 0.50 (325)
Dalton Schultz - 0.19, 0.43 (548)
Noah Brown - 0.18, 0.43 (140)
Cedrick Wilson - 0.18, 0.44 (344)
Ezekiel Elliott - 0.16, 0.27 (405)
Blake Jarwin - 0.14, 0.32 (121)

We have a huge clump here, with a few guys above or below the mass, and it’s mostly the guys with smaller samples or in Tony Pollard’s case, some designed touches.

CeeDee Lamb wasn’t great this year, that’s true. But the early offseason has seen a lot of negativity around him, and I’m not sure I understand it. One cause for concern was how the Cowboys limited his routes again — only slightly — once Michael Gallup returned, and it’s also fair to say his 0.23 TPRR and 0.57 wTPRR were not to the level his draft position suggested was possible. He also had a bad playoff game that isn’t in this data. And yet, his after-the-target efficiency was a plus, he did realize a (smaller-than-hoped-for) second-year bump in TPRR, and there is still room for his routes to rise. There shouldn’t be — he played 16 games to Amari Cooper’s 15, and Lamb should have approached 600 routes — but there is, and it’s not hard to see him adding some routes (again) and continuing to develop his TPRR (again). In a wide open passing game with four weapons, Lamb was still the best at earning volume, and his numbers are certainly not bad. Still, Lamb’s a second-round pick in early drafts, and I can see why many are questioning the high price tag. He’s a very interesting one to track this offseason, and I suspect he’ll be cheaper later in the year, likely settling into the third round.

One or both of Gallup (free agent) and Cooper ($2m dead money, $20m cap savings if cut post-June 1) could be gone next year. They both earned volume at decent rates — Cooper was down a bit from prior numbers in what was only his age-27 season, so there’s some rebound potential, while Gallup was near his career numbers, settling in between his strong 2019 and his worse 2020. They are both good but not great receivers for 2022, and I’d be more interested in Gallup in the 10th round than Cooper in the fifth, although Cooper should definitely be going higher with a longer track record and better chance to be back in Dallas.

Cedrick Wilson looks likely to be the beneficiary if either outside wide receiver leaves town this offseason, and Wilson was solid this year, notably posting much better after-the-target numbers than his first two seasons while settling into a solid late-round type of TPRR where you could see him being a reasonable best ball option if the routes materialize.

Dalton Schultz had another strong season, and saw his TPRR rise to new heights, while Blake Jarwin was a secondary piece who saw far fewer targets per-route and was also quite a bit less efficient after-the-target. Schultz should be viewed favorably after two good years and seemingly having the trust of Dak Prescott.

Denver Broncos

Albert Okwuegbunam - 0.24, 0.51 (167)
Jerry Jeudy - 0.22, 0.56 (253)
Javonte Williams - 0.21, 0.35 (248)
Noah Fant - 0.20, 0.44 (442)
Courtland Sutton - 0.18, 0.53 (542)
Tim Patrick - 0.17, 0.45 (497)
KJ Hamler - 0.17, 0.57 (59)
Melvin Gordon - 0.16, 0.27 (239)
Kendall Hinton - 0.16, 0.37 (145)

Jerry Jeudy slots in right around Lamb, but the different is he has been less efficient after-the-target, and his upside profile is more about an ability to earn targets at a high rate. In that regard, Jeudy is a guy I would have liked to see closer to a 0.25 TPRR, though he did play injured some this year, and his efficiency did rise from Year 1. He’s also quite a bit cheaper than Lamb in early drafts, going in the seventh round. That feels right for him.

Courtland Sutton had an incredibly weird year, being targeted extremely heavily when Jeudy was out of the lineup, and being nearly forgotten about when the Broncos were at full strength. A good chunk of that can probably be chalked up to Teddy Bridgewater, and Sutton has shown enough after-the-target upside and has an enticing enough downfield profile to be someone I’m willing to take some shots on in the ninth round, especially if the Broncos can land one of the rumored quarterback upgrades (which, obviously, will increase the prices of all their receivers).

Tim Patrick remains just a guy, someone who has been right in this 0.16-0.17 TPRR range all four of his seasons, with varying efficiency that has improved in recent seasons but not much to suggest high-target potential. With all the competition in Denver, he’s a tough sell, but he also comes cheap in drafts for those reasons.

The tight ends here are very interesting, because when healthy, Albert Okwuegbunam was incredibly good both at earning targets and producing after he earned them. He did similar as a rookie, and looks like a potentially legit TE in his own right — though he’s obviously blocked by Noah Fant. Fant meanwhile ran more routes when Okwuegbunam missed time, but was limited in his route ceiling when Albert O. was in the lineup. The case for Fant this year was his TPRR had risen solidly from Year 1 to Year 2, while his YPT had fallen, so there was room for him to earn targets at a solid rate but also see his after-the-target efficiency rebound. Instead, Fant’s TPRR wound up dipping a bit from his second-year bump — though still a lot closer to Year 2 than Year 1, and still in a strong range — and his YPT didn’t rebound — though it was once again solid. Improved QB play could be huge for him, too.

Alright, that’s 10 teams and that’s all I’m going to get to today. I’ll have the remaining 22 teams in another post shortly. I’m going to keep this one outside the paywall as a bit of a teaser, but will post Part 2 behind the paywall, so an FYI to those of you on the free email list that if you wind up looking out for Part 2, signing up would be the way to get it delivered to your inbox.

Until next time!